1/16/18 Stock Picks

On Friday, we enjoyed another solid bullish move in the  markets.  I think we’re starting to get a bit over-extended/overbought here, but by managing risk through setting stops, I’m confident in nibbling on small bullish positions.

Current Positions:

$DIS: 25 shares.  Current Status: 2.2%. Plan: Sell at Target 1: $113.16.     Earnings: 6 Feb

$HD: 2 February $195 calls.  Current Status: Closed one contract for 35 gain%. Plan: HD had an ugly candle on Friday.  Not sure what caused the massive sell-off in the afternoon.  However, I’m still holding one contract, look at Target 2: $202.27.    Earnings:  13 Feb

$IWM: 2 March $157 calls.  Current Status: Closed position for 46% gain.  I only intended to close 1 contract, but had a lag in my app where I inadvertently sold two.  I’m tempted to get back in with one contract, but don’t want to push my luck since Target 1 was hit.  I’m very happy with the profit I locked in.

$JNJ: 2 February $145 calls.  Current Status:  +4.5%.  Plan:  Trim 1 call at Target 1: 148.63.  Ensure position is closed prior to earnings.  Earnings: 23 January.

$WMT: 2 March $100 calls.  Current Status: 0%. Plan: My plan remains to trim 1 call at Target 1: $103.85.  Not the prettiest candle, but there’s no reason why we can’t continue higher.  Earnings:  15 Feb

Breaking Out

$AAPL:  After flirting with the line for a while, Apple finally saw a breakout.  I’m not in love with $AAPL’s price action, but I do think it’s worth taking a trade here assuming the 5 minute candle rule works out.  Target 1:  $182.13  Target2:  $189.59.AAPL

$BEAT:  I’m honestly not familiar with this company, but based on the chart, it has broken out and looks like it has room to run.  Friday was a strong candle and I’d be interested in buying shares instead of options (due to low OPT interest) assuming successful 5minute rule.  Target 1: $34.14  Target 2:  $36.42BEAT.png

$MMM: 3M had a breakout-ish candle on Friday.  Again, not the prettiest candle, but it is technically above the breakout line.  I would consider a small position based on the 5 minute rule.  Target 1:  $249.06  Target 2:  $255.33MMM.png

$PYPL:  PayPal technically broke out on Thursday, with confirmation on Friday.  5 minute rule to get in on the action.  Target 1:  $82.27   Target 2:  $86.02PYPL.png

Other Types of Breakouts

$C:  Citigroup broke out of it’s wedge/triangle pattern on Friday.  Although it still needs to get through it’s breakout price level ($77.83), the fact it broke bullishly from the pattern is a positive sign.  I would consider getting in tomorrow based on the 5 minute rule.  Target 1:  $79.64.    Target 2:  $81.97C.png

$DNKN:  Who doesn’t like Dunkin Donuts? haha  Well even if you’re not a fan, you should like the strong bounce off of the 50% Fib re-tracement price.  Once again, observe the 5 minute rule, and if it permits, get in the trade.  Breakout line:  $66.43   Target 1: $68.35  Target 2:  $70.82.DNKN.png

 

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1/12

After a pause on the 10th, the market had a powerfully bullish day yesterday on average volume.  I’m looking for more upside today.

Current Positions:

$DIS: 25 shares.  Current Status: +.91%. Plan: sell at Target 1: $113.16.     Disney looks to have bounced off of it’s ascending trend line and is set to run.  Earnings: 6 Feb

$HD: 2 February $195 calls.  Current Status: +6.16%. Plan: Trim 1 call on the way to Target 2: $202.27.   Home Depot had a nice strong day pushing above the stagnancy of the last few days.  This ought to be the start of another leg up.  Earnings:  13 Feb

$IWM: 2 March $157 calls.  Current Status: +52.21%. Plan: Trim 1 call at Target 1: $158.28.  Big breakout today.  Lot’s of room to run.  I like this position.  Earnings:

$WMT: 2 March $100 calls.  Current Status: -8.55%. Plan: Trim 1 call at Target 1: $103.85. Walmart filled the gap and then back tested.  I’ll be watching it rather closes as it needs to show it can break out.  Earnings:  15 Feb

What I’m Watching Today:

$CAT:  This one is a bit risky since it passed it’s first target, but the stock has been so strong, it’s difficult to ignore.  I’m thinking of either buying 1 ITM call or buying a couple of OTM calls with a target of $175.81.CAT

$JNJ:  Johnson & Johnson closed above the “breakout” line yesterday.  I’ll be watching on the 5min chart for a close above the first 5min candle before getting in.  I think this play has some good potential to run.  Target1:  $148.63  Target2:  $154.01.JNJ.png

$MMM:  3M has been a very strong stock in the intermediate term and showed strength yesterday after a weak Wednesday.  I don’t expect to get into this trade today, but I’ll be watching for a close above the “breakout” line of $244.19.MMM.png

$SBUX: Starbucks is back on my radar and is setting up for a breakout.  Again, I’m not crazy about this stock due to over head resistance, but I will keep an eye on it.  Target 1:  $61.13   Target 2:  $62.58SBUX.png

 

 

1/11/18

Good evening!  Interesting day in the market.  We had an early sell-off that recovered.  I see this as a mere pause in the action before charging higher.

I’m still holding $HD calls.  Nothing exciting happened today.  Had some time decay.  My stop is at $191, so I still have a dollar or so at risk before potentially getting stopped out.

Let’s take a look at some potential plays for tomorrow, my favorites being $AXP, $DIS, and $LVS.

Breaking Out:

$AXP and $JPM are both breaking out.  Personally, I like the $AXP play better than the $JPM play because $AXP has a slightly cleaner chart and more room to run, but both have good potential.  I would apply the 5min rule before getting into either of these positions.  $AXP Target 1:  $102.50  Target 2: $105.    $JPM Target 1: $111.06  Target 2: $114.69.  AXPJPM

Second Target Push

$FB and $NFLX paused yesterday, but had better days today, particularly $NFLX.  I really like the $NFLX play here assuming it satisfies the 5min rule.  My biggest concern with $NFLX is that it’s reporting earnings after market close on 22 January, so there isn’t a lot of time to let this trade breath.  In either event, assuming I got into the trade, I would set my stop at the low of today’s candle.  $FB Target 2:  $193.73  $NFLX Target 2: $222.24. FBNFLX

Still Trying to Breakout-Out

A number of stocks are still on the cusp of breaking out.  I’m keeping an eye on: $IWM, $JNJ, $PYPL and $SBUX.  Of all of these, $JNJ is probably my favorite since MACD crossed and is bullish.  A potential $10 gain for a $2.5 risk.  However, be aware that $JNJ reports earnings on 23 January.  I would not get into any of these until the last 5-15 minutes of the day with price solidly above the breakout price.PYPLSBUX.pngJNJ.pngIWM.png

Bouncing

$LVS is bouncing off of it’s 50EMA.  Stochastics are turning up, as is MACD, although MACD has yet to cross.  RSI has plenty of room to run.  It has a reward of $9 with a risk of just $1.5. Keep in mind that earnings is on 24 January.  Targets:  1:  $72.24  2:  $75.3  3:  $79.25LVS

$DIS.  This trade could easily go against you based on the technicals.  However, if the bullish trend continues as it has over the last few weeks, we could see a bounce with a nice gain.  Notice the ascending trend line that has acted as support 3 times in the past.  If it holds a fourth time, I’d be looking at a target of $113.16.  I’m not sure I would hold beyond that due to overhead resistance, but for a swing trade, there’s extremely low risk.  I would get in on the 5minute rule OR, if $DIS gaps up and comes back down to the trend line, I would enter a small position with a tight stop.  I’ll have  my eye on this one tomorrow.DIS

1/9/18

Nothing worked out too well today.  $FLIR popped as I expected, but it never got a close above it’s first 5min candle.  $IGT couldn’t sustain it’s pop.

$FB and $HD both had 5min candles that closed above their first 5min candle, but I chose to get into $HD (two 195 strike February calls) as it was the first stock to signal a buy.  I was up for a short time, but now down 40 cents, which isn’t too bad as my risk is low.  My stop will be the low of the first 5minute candle from today’s trading session.  Targets remain unchanged.

Potential For Breakouts:

$AAPL:  $AAPL still looks poised for a breakout.  Targets remain unchanged.  AAPL

$BABA:  I’m interested in $BABA if it can break out above $191.75.  Target1: $199.14  Target2: $208.75.BABA.png

$NKE: $NKE in a nice up-trend, poised to break out.  However with the overhead resistance above Target 1, I don’t love the trade.  Breakout: $65.23  Target1: $67.98  Target 2: $71.53.NKE.png

$PYPL:  $PYPL was in an up-trend, had a healthy pull-back and now looks poised to run further, as MACD turns up, if it can crack $79.39.  Target 1: $82.27  Target 2:  $86.02PYPL.png

Breaking Out:

$KORS:  $KORS has nearly doubled since July, but recently went into a “resting” or “sideways pattern”.  Although the Stochs and RSI indicate overbought and MACD is pointing down, the stock is still pushing higher.  There is still room for it to get back to and beyond it’s three year high at ~$73.  MACD is trying to turn back up.  I think there is still more room to run, especially if MACD turns up.  Target 1: $68.91   Target 2:  $74.82KORS

$WMT:  Good old Walmart has broken out from it’s holding pattern from the past few months.  I like this trade a lot assuming we get a close over the first 5min candle tomorrow.  Target 1:  $103.85 Target 2: $108.69  WMT

Target 1 Hit

$FB and $NFLX:  Both $FB and $NFLX hit their first targets today.  Depending on your risk plan, it may not be too late to get into these to see if they reach their second targets of $193.73 and $222.24, respectively.FB

NFLX

 

1/8/18 – New Year New Approach

It’s been over a year since I wrote on my blog, but one of my new year’s resolutions is to take more time studying stocks and making proper investments and trades.  Today’s blog will look at some stocks that are breaking out, others that are close to breaking out, another in a bullish continuation pattern and finally one risky, but interesting stock.  So here we go:

Breaking Out:

$FB:  $FB has broken out from it’s short term channel and is moving up.  Target 1:  188.34, Target 2:  193.73.  FB

$HD:  I see HD as a little risky as it’s been in a steady upward trend for a while now.  Not to say that it couldn’t continue, but you may want a tight stop if you’re planning on getting in.  Target1:  $193.29  Target2: $202.27.HD

$MA:  $MA had a great day on Friday and cleared through the first target of $158.25.  Since it’s already through the first target, I would consider a small position to see if it can reach target 2:  $163.12  MACD is rather flat and RSI is high as well.  Be careful here.MA

$NFLX:  Target1: $212.36, Target 2: $222.24NFLX

$FLIR:  This is probably my favorite breakout play of the 5 breaking out stocks I’ve identified since it’s been consolidating for the last few weeks.  I would wait for confirmation at the open tomorrow before entering (i.e. when looking at a daily 5min chart, ensure the we get a close ABOVE the close of the first 5min candle.  This isn’t a fool proof method, but it’s rather reliable.  Target 1: $50.67  Target 2: $53.95FLIR

Breakout Potential:

$AAPL:  $AAPL has been consolidating the last few weeks.  If it closes above $176.34, it could reach Target 1: $182.13 and Target 2:  $189.59AAPL

$IGT:  $IGT is an interesting play.  It had a strong day on Friday and while it has not broken out, it has bounced off of the 50% FIB re-tracement and is following an upward trend line.  If you’re comfortable getting in now with a tight stop below the low on Thursday, it could pay off nicely.  Or you could choose to wait until it breaks out and closes above $29.40.  Target 1:  31.30  Target  2: 33.76IGT

$SBUX:  I’m not in love with this trade since there is some resistance above Target 1: ($61.13).  Target 2 would be $62.58 SBUX

Trending:

$DAN: This stock has been in a solid up trend since July 2016 off of it’s low of $9.80.  Target 1: $34.93  Target 2: $36.75.  OR, this could be a stock you want to hold onto.   Also notice that MACD is turning up, Stochs are pointed up, as is RSI.  DAN

Risk and Reward

$VRX:  This is a pharmaceutical stock, which are typically risky by nature, $VRX being no exception.  A few years ago $VRX was ~$260 and fell over time down to $8.31.  It’s currently at $23.85.  I’m not saying it will get back to $260 and while there’s some overhead resistance to watch out for (see chart below), there is some potential for this stock to grow.  Proceed with caution, but keep it in mind.VRX

April 5 Update

Hello all,

I’ve been keeping an eye on the market and it seems as though we are at or very close to a breaking point on a descending triangle.  This is true both of the DOW and the S&P.  Will we bounce or will we push lower?  There’s no answer to that until it actually happens.  Once it does happen, the direction of the market will become more clear and trades with low risk and high reward can be taken.

On a side note, with the addition of $AAPL to the DOW, I believe the S&P is a better indicator of overall market health.  So any time I reference “the market”, I am talking about the S&P unless otherwise specified.

A number of stocks are at key support levels, some are in bollinger band squeezes, and others are in existing down-trends.  Let’s take a look at a couple of stocks exhibiting this behavior:

$JNJ:

As can be seen, $JNJ has been in a down trend in recent months.  It appeared to have formed a double bottom, but it is about to retest that bottom.  $JNJ was in a downward channel, but made a higher high and slightly broke out of the channel which is slightly concerning.  However, if it breaks and closes below $98, I’m looking for a swing trade over the course of a week or two down to $95.  MACD is already looking slightly bearish and a close below $98 should support a short trade.  The other way to play this stock is to go long if it bounces off $98, but that would be a counter trend trade and would require a tight stop.  JNJ$LVS is another stock in a downward trend worth looking at.

$FSLR:

This stock does not necessarily follow the trend of the overall market.  As a matter of fact, it has been in a side-ways pattern for around a month or so and is now in a bollinger-band squeeze.  Whichever way it breaks out of the band is the direction I would take the trade.  However, I would start with a small position due to the possibility of a “head fake”.FSLR$HES is a stock just about to enter into a bollinger band squeeze.

$EXPE

$EXPE is a great example of a stock breaking out.  The only thing I am concerned with is if the market pushes lower, the breakout could fizzle.  A low risk trade would be watching for $EXPE to come back to $96.74 before getting in and keeping a tight stop.  You may miss the move with this approach, so the alternative is to get in at market open understanding that you’ll want a wide stop.EXPE

$EBAY:

$EBAY is and has been in a nice uptrend.  It sits on the ascending trend line and is a good low risk/reward play.  However, this one may also depend on the direction of the market.  MACD is looking bearish so the stock may roll over.  If it does $55.50 is the first target.  $54.00 is the second.  If we get a bounce, $59.70 looks likely as a first target.EBAY$BBY is another stock in a similar up-trend.

That wraps up this update.  Have a great night, hope you had a happy Easter.  Good night and happy trading!

25 March Update

With the large sell-off, I got stopped out of my DD trade.  Yes, I took a loss, but it was negligible for two reasons:  1. My position was small.  2.  I mitigated my risk by getting into the trade near support and thus use a tight stop.  DD continued to plummet past my stop, with my account in tact.  As pointed out yesterday, I am already eying a re-entry for DD assuming that the overall market’s bullish uptrend continues and DD joins in.

Speaking of which, there are a number of stocks that are so very tempting to short.  I say tempting because the overall market’s uptrend is still in tact.  I may take a gamble on a short of a stock that is already in a down trend, such as $UPS.

Other stocks that are temping to short in the near term:  $BAC, $COF, $IP, $JNJ, $JPM.

Again, I would strong encourage anyone to understand the risks of taking a short trade in this current market environment.

That’s all for today.  I don’t expect to post again until the weekend.  Have a great rest of the week and happy trading!

24 March Update

The markets pulled back further today after yesterday’s sell-off, but the bull-ish trend is still in tact.  I am still cautiously bullish, but there isn’t much that is catching my eye right now.

Real Account Update

$DD

Dupont seems to have broken the upward channel.  I’m a few cents away from my stop but see another opportunity to enter bullishly at $75.00 if my stop is hit.  That being said, the stock closed on it’s 100 SMA, which may prove as support.  Overall my loss will be minimal if I do get stopped out.  At this time, I have no plans to short

DD

Stocks I’m watching:

$AAPL, $LVS, $TWTR, $FSLR, $VLO.

For $AAPL, I’m still looking for the 129.50 entry.  $LVS looks like it’s rolling over.  I’m looking at a potential short trade.  Both $TWTR and $FSLR broke out today.  I am looking at potential continuation patterns.  $VLO, I am still looking for a break out before getting in long.

That’s all I have for tonight.  Happy Trading!

23 March Update

So the $DOW had a nasty sell-off at the end of the day, but still remains in an uptrend.  Meanwhile, the S&P, which also sold off, is starting to flatten out a bit.  Overall, I’m cautiously bullish.  If the trend of the last few trading sessions plays out, we can expect a white candle tomorrow.

Real Account Update:

Reviewing yesterday’s trades, $DD was up slightly. I was able to get into the trade around the lows of the day.  I bought the stock outright, rather than buying calls.  $DD held the ascending trend line and still looks healthy.

$EXPE sold off with the rest of the market.  I was hesitant to get into the trade, due to the volatile open.  $EXPE sits on solid resistance, so this is an even better bullish entry with less risk and more reward.  I’m not sure I will take the trade, but I’m very interested to see how the stock moves tomorrow.

What I’m looking at:

$JNJ

$JNJ has been in a down trend since the end of last year.  However, a double bottom may be in (see chart below).  If we close above the “neck line”, I like $JNJ long; first target ~$106.50.JNJ

$PFE

PFizer just closed at its all-time high today.  You can see that MACD is about to turn positive and volume was strong on today’s breakout.  The long wick is a little concerning, but this entry provides low risk/high reward.  First target is $36.03.PFE

$VLO

Lastly, Valero is on the cusp of a breakout to all time highs with MACD just starting to turn bullish.  If this one breaks out, I like a medium term target (approximately 1 month) of $68.45.VLO

  On My Radar:

$COH, $MA, $SBUX, $TIF, $WFC, $AAPL

Just a quick note on $AAPL; although it gapped up slightly, the candle was still one of indecision.  I’m still looking for the $129.50 entry.

That’s all for tonight.  Happy trading!

Potential Return

Hello everyone,

It’s been a long time since I’ve posted.  After the mounting frustration of loss after loss, I decided it was time to take a break from trading.  After some time, I slowly started to get back into looking at the market and analyzing a few stocks here and there.  I also took a step back and analyzed my trades and realized I was making some very fundamental mistakes  (i.e. trading against the trend, holding losing trades, trading on a whim, not letting winners run, etc).  While reacquainting myself with the market, I also took time to review old technical analysis course material.  I resumed trading in October, just taking on a couple of trades per week.  I wasn’t coming out in the green, but I also wasn’t losing either.  It was extremely encouraging to me that my account was holding steady.  After the new year, I decided I wanted to get back into trading more frequently, and I am happy to say that since that time, my account has been a positive 2%.  This may not seem like much, but just being in the green over a period of almost 4 months while trading almost daily has been such a great and exciting experience.  I am keeping my losses small and letting my winners run as best I can.  I fully believe that I have improved and taking a step back may have been just what I needed to push forward and become a better trader.

As far as this blog goes, I am not sure how often I will update it.  Probably not daily, at least, not at first, but I certainly want to update at least once per week.  So here is what I’m looking at for Monday’s trading session:

$DD

Dupont has been in a strong uptrend since October of 2014.  There is an ascending trend line that the stock has bounced off three times since the uptrend.  It is now sitting on that trend line for a 4th time.  I see this as an excellent R/R trade.  Approximately 60 cent risk for a potential $10 gain or more. As long as it’s not up more than a dollar at open, I plan on buying a few calls.

DD

$EXPE

Expedia just broke out to an all-time high.  I see this as another good R/R trade.  The risk is ~$1.  Reward is ~$4.  First target is $100.

EXPE

Some other stocks I’m watching: $COF, $AXP, $MA, $AAPL.

As far as $AAPL goes, I am expecting it to go lower, but if it holds at this level, I plan to buy around $130.  Otherwise, I’ll be looking for a bullish entry around $122.

Thanks for reading and happy trading!