April 5 Update

Hello all,

I’ve been keeping an eye on the market and it seems as though we are at or very close to a breaking point on a descending triangle.  This is true both of the DOW and the S&P.  Will we bounce or will we push lower?  There’s no answer to that until it actually happens.  Once it does happen, the direction of the market will become more clear and trades with low risk and high reward can be taken.

On a side note, with the addition of $AAPL to the DOW, I believe the S&P is a better indicator of overall market health.  So any time I reference “the market”, I am talking about the S&P unless otherwise specified.

A number of stocks are at key support levels, some are in bollinger band squeezes, and others are in existing down-trends.  Let’s take a look at a couple of stocks exhibiting this behavior:


As can be seen, $JNJ has been in a down trend in recent months.  It appeared to have formed a double bottom, but it is about to retest that bottom.  $JNJ was in a downward channel, but made a higher high and slightly broke out of the channel which is slightly concerning.  However, if it breaks and closes below $98, I’m looking for a swing trade over the course of a week or two down to $95.  MACD is already looking slightly bearish and a close below $98 should support a short trade.  The other way to play this stock is to go long if it bounces off $98, but that would be a counter trend trade and would require a tight stop.  JNJ$LVS is another stock in a downward trend worth looking at.


This stock does not necessarily follow the trend of the overall market.  As a matter of fact, it has been in a side-ways pattern for around a month or so and is now in a bollinger-band squeeze.  Whichever way it breaks out of the band is the direction I would take the trade.  However, I would start with a small position due to the possibility of a “head fake”.FSLR$HES is a stock just about to enter into a bollinger band squeeze.


$EXPE is a great example of a stock breaking out.  The only thing I am concerned with is if the market pushes lower, the breakout could fizzle.  A low risk trade would be watching for $EXPE to come back to $96.74 before getting in and keeping a tight stop.  You may miss the move with this approach, so the alternative is to get in at market open understanding that you’ll want a wide stop.EXPE


$EBAY is and has been in a nice uptrend.  It sits on the ascending trend line and is a good low risk/reward play.  However, this one may also depend on the direction of the market.  MACD is looking bearish so the stock may roll over.  If it does $55.50 is the first target.  $54.00 is the second.  If we get a bounce, $59.70 looks likely as a first target.EBAY$BBY is another stock in a similar up-trend.

That wraps up this update.  Have a great night, hope you had a happy Easter.  Good night and happy trading!

25 March Update

With the large sell-off, I got stopped out of my DD trade.  Yes, I took a loss, but it was negligible for two reasons:  1. My position was small.  2.  I mitigated my risk by getting into the trade near support and thus use a tight stop.  DD continued to plummet past my stop, with my account in tact.  As pointed out yesterday, I am already eying a re-entry for DD assuming that the overall market’s bullish uptrend continues and DD joins in.

Speaking of which, there are a number of stocks that are so very tempting to short.  I say tempting because the overall market’s uptrend is still in tact.  I may take a gamble on a short of a stock that is already in a down trend, such as $UPS.

Other stocks that are temping to short in the near term:  $BAC, $COF, $IP, $JNJ, $JPM.

Again, I would strong encourage anyone to understand the risks of taking a short trade in this current market environment.

That’s all for today.  I don’t expect to post again until the weekend.  Have a great rest of the week and happy trading!

24 March Update

The markets pulled back further today after yesterday’s sell-off, but the bull-ish trend is still in tact.  I am still cautiously bullish, but there isn’t much that is catching my eye right now.

Real Account Update


Dupont seems to have broken the upward channel.  I’m a few cents away from my stop but see another opportunity to enter bullishly at $75.00 if my stop is hit.  That being said, the stock closed on it’s 100 SMA, which may prove as support.  Overall my loss will be minimal if I do get stopped out.  At this time, I have no plans to short


Stocks I’m watching:


For $AAPL, I’m still looking for the 129.50 entry.  $LVS looks like it’s rolling over.  I’m looking at a potential short trade.  Both $TWTR and $FSLR broke out today.  I am looking at potential continuation patterns.  $VLO, I am still looking for a break out before getting in long.

That’s all I have for tonight.  Happy Trading!

23 March Update

So the $DOW had a nasty sell-off at the end of the day, but still remains in an uptrend.  Meanwhile, the S&P, which also sold off, is starting to flatten out a bit.  Overall, I’m cautiously bullish.  If the trend of the last few trading sessions plays out, we can expect a white candle tomorrow.

Real Account Update:

Reviewing yesterday’s trades, $DD was up slightly. I was able to get into the trade around the lows of the day.  I bought the stock outright, rather than buying calls.  $DD held the ascending trend line and still looks healthy.

$EXPE sold off with the rest of the market.  I was hesitant to get into the trade, due to the volatile open.  $EXPE sits on solid resistance, so this is an even better bullish entry with less risk and more reward.  I’m not sure I will take the trade, but I’m very interested to see how the stock moves tomorrow.

What I’m looking at:


$JNJ has been in a down trend since the end of last year.  However, a double bottom may be in (see chart below).  If we close above the “neck line”, I like $JNJ long; first target ~$106.50.JNJ


PFizer just closed at its all-time high today.  You can see that MACD is about to turn positive and volume was strong on today’s breakout.  The long wick is a little concerning, but this entry provides low risk/high reward.  First target is $36.03.PFE


Lastly, Valero is on the cusp of a breakout to all time highs with MACD just starting to turn bullish.  If this one breaks out, I like a medium term target (approximately 1 month) of $68.45.VLO

  On My Radar:


Just a quick note on $AAPL; although it gapped up slightly, the candle was still one of indecision.  I’m still looking for the $129.50 entry.

That’s all for tonight.  Happy trading!

Potential Return

Hello everyone,

It’s been a long time since I’ve posted.  After the mounting frustration of loss after loss, I decided it was time to take a break from trading.  After some time, I slowly started to get back into looking at the market and analyzing a few stocks here and there.  I also took a step back and analyzed my trades and realized I was making some very fundamental mistakes  (i.e. trading against the trend, holding losing trades, trading on a whim, not letting winners run, etc).  While reacquainting myself with the market, I also took time to review old technical analysis course material.  I resumed trading in October, just taking on a couple of trades per week.  I wasn’t coming out in the green, but I also wasn’t losing either.  It was extremely encouraging to me that my account was holding steady.  After the new year, I decided I wanted to get back into trading more frequently, and I am happy to say that since that time, my account has been a positive 2%.  This may not seem like much, but just being in the green over a period of almost 4 months while trading almost daily has been such a great and exciting experience.  I am keeping my losses small and letting my winners run as best I can.  I fully believe that I have improved and taking a step back may have been just what I needed to push forward and become a better trader.

As far as this blog goes, I am not sure how often I will update it.  Probably not daily, at least, not at first, but I certainly want to update at least once per week.  So here is what I’m looking at for Monday’s trading session:


Dupont has been in a strong uptrend since October of 2014.  There is an ascending trend line that the stock has bounced off three times since the uptrend.  It is now sitting on that trend line for a 4th time.  I see this as an excellent R/R trade.  Approximately 60 cent risk for a potential $10 gain or more. As long as it’s not up more than a dollar at open, I plan on buying a few calls.



Expedia just broke out to an all-time high.  I see this as another good R/R trade.  The risk is ~$1.  Reward is ~$4.  First target is $100.


Some other stocks I’m watching: $COF, $AXP, $MA, $AAPL.

As far as $AAPL goes, I am expecting it to go lower, but if it holds at this level, I plan to buy around $130.  Otherwise, I’ll be looking for a bullish entry around $122.

Thanks for reading and happy trading!

Picks for Tuesday, July 16: $CAT, $LULU, $FLSR

So today I am just going to take a look at 3 potential plays.  1 brackett, 1 long and 1 15min rule.  So let’s begin!

$CAT:  First off, let me thank #Tradesmartu.com for pointing out this trade.  It looks like we could go in either direction with this stock.  On the bullish side, we need a close above today’s wick as well as a close above the 200 SMA.  Target is 90.60.  Stop is TBD.  On the short side, I like a close below 84.85 and a target of 81.48.  Stop is TBD.CAT_JULY_16_2013

$LULU:  I got burned on this stock a few weeks ago, but it’s looking like a good play is setting up.  There are some long term trend lines, the 200 SMA and recent wicks I’d like to close above.  In addition, there is an ascending triangle forming which I outlined in pink.  I like a close above 66.85 with a target of 70.40.  Stop is TBD.    Notice there is a short trade as well.  That was from a few weeks ago, but it may be valid depending on how LULU behaves.  For now, I am looking at the bullish trade.LULU_JULY_16_2013

$FSLR:  Here is the 15min trade.  It looks like we just had a nice pop on increasing volume. I think FLSR is a strong play with a target of 56.30.  My stop is 48.56.  This trade has an excellent R/R if it plays out as expected.  I think I will leg into this trade with one contract and get a couple more if the trend continues.  FSLR_JULY_16_2013

That about does it.  Best of luck with all your trades.

Market Recap for July 15, 2013

Hi all.  I just want to apologize for missing the last couple of days.  The summer is proving difficult to keep up with work, leisure, family/friends, and stocks.  As a result, the blog is slipping off the plate.  Therefore, I make no promises on how often I update, but I would like to be able to update at least 3 times per week during the summer.  That is my short term goal with my long term goal of updating daily once the summer winds down in a few months.

So.  Today we had another all-time high close but the end of the day saw a slight sell-off.  I think we are due for another turn down, draw down, whatever you want to call, but I think the bears are sniffing around.  That being said, I would not enter short unless tomorrow really does sell-off.


$DIS:  HOLDING (-15%)  I entered this at the wrong time.  I think my strategy is going to focus more on formations rather than intermediate support and resistance lines.  I want to focus on strong pivot points, trend lines and patterns ready to break out.  That is my new focus when looking at trades.

$HES:  HOLDING (-2%)  See comments on DIS.  I should have gotten in early, but I was worried about an intermediate resistance that probably was something more to be aware of than to place a trade around.  

$DMND:  HOLDING (+11%)  Finally, a good trade!  I am moving my stop up but DMND looks strong to me.  It’s due for a down day or two, but I think overall we are heading to 24.00

$WLT:  HOLDING (+55%)  This is good, but not as good as it looks.  I wrote a $12 put that expires this Friday.  I’d be happy to own this stock and write calls against it if it channels or declines.  Similarly if it rises, I’m happy to write puts as it goes up.

Picks for tomorrow coming soon.

No Update Today

Hi guys.  Due to real life and time constraints, I won’t be able to post a full update today, but I will give a quick synopsis.

Now all time high close.  Still not a close above all time highs, but we are close.  The market is very bullish.  I expect a small bullish flag to form before we rip further.  There really is no reason for us to move downward other than for a small rest and a reset of oscillators.  HOWEVER!!! It’s very possible that this could be a near term double top and we could have so much bullish optimism that a bearish trend could ensue.  That’s not where I believe we are headed, but it is still a scenario to consider.

In my real account I was up about 20% on LNKD.  Sold out today.

I entered long in $DIS and $HES.  Meanwhile I wrote a put for $WLT.  I would really like to own WLT as I think it has a lot of upside potential.  In addition, options are rather expensive for such a small stock which means collecting premiums on calls would offset any potential losses.  It pays a 5% dividend so it would be a good investment.

I have my eye on $NLY to own.  It pays an excellent dividend and would be a great stock to add to and write calls/puts on, although the option values are not as strong as WLT.

Let’s see what happens!

Picks for Thursday July 11, 2013: $DDD, $DIS, $GS, $HES

Here are my picks for tomorrow.  Just a quick note that futures are up quite a bit after hours.  Let’s see if that holds into tomorrow.

$DDD:  I like a long entry on a close above 48.75.  Targets are 50.98 and 51.87.  Stop is TBD.  MACD and Stochs are supporting a bullish move.DDD_JULY_11_2013

$DIS:  Here is a bracket trade; similar to the one posted a few days ago.  I like a long entry of 65.60 with a target of 67.88.  A shot entry of 63.75 with a target of 62.00.  Stop TBD.DIS_JULY_11_2013

$GS:  I like a long entry on a close above 157.60.  Targets are 160.80 and 165.65.  Stop TBD.GS_JULY_11_2013

$HES:  I like a long entry on a close above 69.05 with a target of 72.40.  My stop is TBD.HES_JULY_11_2013

Keep an eye on some stock picks from yesterday:




There you are.  Good luck to everyone.

Market Review July 10, 2013

Today was a pretty boring day.  Nothing really happened in the markets even with the FOMC.  SPY closed a few pennies above it’s close from yesterday.  The DOW finished pennies below while the NASDAQ had a rather strong bullish day.  I am still bullish on the markets.  It’s not really worth posting charts today, so I will get into the next segment:


$BTU:  No Trigger.

$COST:  You’d have been triggered in.  Not much action.

$DECK:  No Trigger

$QCOM:  No Trigger

$CELG:  You would have been triggered in; up a few pennies.

$XONE: You would have been triggered in, but as pointed out, there are no options for this stock, unfortunately.

$DMND:  You would have been triggered in; down a few pennies.


$UA:  HOLDING (+2%) I still expect a bullish move north.

$LNKD:  HOLDING (-8%)  I’m not sure what to think here, but it seems, at least on the daily chart, that we found a bottom.  I expect we go back to retest 195.

$DMND: OPENED (-14%)  A lot of this loss is due to commission and the bid/ask spread. I expect to rebound in the coming days.

$AXP:  CLOSED (+17%)  I am grateful I was able to get out before the plunge down today.  Wish I had shorted, but such is life.

That’s about it for my open positions.  Picks for tomorrow coming soon.