Picks for Tomorrow July 1, 2013: $AXP, $LULU, $POT

There isn’t a lot I am crazy about with the market still (imo) in an indecision phase.  However, here is what I think has potential:

$AXP: Bearish volume was strong on Friday, but a strong close above 75.50 should send this stock higher.  Stochs are reset and turning up while MACD is about the cross.  AXP_JULY_1_2013

$LULU:  LULU missed earnings, but it has the potential to recover from this recent sell-off. A close above 66.20 should send us to the 100 SMA.LULU_JULY_1_2013

 

$POT:  We are approaching oversold territory, but I don’t think we’re there yet.  A close below 37.70 looks like a good entry with a target of 36.80.  If 36.80 is breached, this one could have some legs in the bearish direction.POT_JULY_1_2013

There are a few other trades I’m looking at but I’m trying to keep my picks to a minimum and focus on the ones that have the best potential.

Good luck all, and happy trading.

Market Overview for June 30, 2013

So Friday marked a second day in a row of failing to close above the 50 SMA.  In fact, we did not even get to the the highs of Thursday.  This is not a good case for the bulls.  On the bearish side, we are now within sight of the 100 SMA.  A breach of the 100 and I believe we will be out of “no man’s land” and on a confirmed, but short term, bearish trend.  I like targets of 155.75, 153.58 and the 200 SMA.  Of course, this breach should be on solid volume.  As for the bullish side of things, I would not get in bullish on the overall market until we close above 166.05.SPY_JULY_1_2013

REVIEW OF YESTERDAY’S PICKS:

You would not have gotten triggered into any of those trades.  However, it’s worth pointing out on a day where the market took a nose dive, UA finished up strong with solid volume.

REAL ACCOUNT ACTIVITY:

None

Picks and Observations for Friday June 28, 2013: $AMZN, $BTU, $VLO, $UA

Another day down, another set of trade setups coming up next!

$AMZN:  I think we are currently in no-mans land to take a solid position.  That being said, if we close above 284.80 enter long.  If we fall below 273.21, enter short.  AMZN_JUNE_28_2013

$BTU:  This guy has been on a decline lately and I don’t see that decline letting up any time soon.  We are in some sort of pennant/mini triangle.  A break below 14.30 and I’ll take this trade bearish down to 12.90.BTU_JUNE_28_2013

$VLO:  This stock is just in a strong downward channel.  We had a little bearish flag yesterday and I believe, with confirmation, this could be a great short entry to take after the first 15min and follow it down to 33.23 again.  I’m not super confident with this trade, but I am definitely keeping an eye on it.VLO_JUNE_28_2013

$UA:  Well I got burnt by this stock short and I will be doing all i can to avoid that scenario again.  Here I have UA set up as a bracket trade.  For a short entry, I want a close below 57.59.  For a long entry, I want a close above 60.96.UA_JUNE_28_2013

Goodnight all and good luck.

Market Review Thursday June 27, 2013

Well here we are on one of the last days in June.  The market behaved as I expected; bullish day on relatively low volume (lower than the previous 5 days).  In addition, we failed to close over the 50SMA on both the DOW (which briefly crossed the 50 SMA) and the S&P500 which touched it but did not even cross.  So where does that leave us for tomorrow?  Well I’m not Elliot Wave Theorist, but if we do not get a close above the 50SMA tomorrow, we may be heading for a 5th wave down.  This is just an observation, but as a result, I do not plan on getting into any trades unless there is a clear bullish or clear bearish move.  All that being said, I could certainly see the bulls coming in with solid volume and lifting this market higher… but I’m not betting on it.SPY_JUNE_27_2013

REVIEW OF YESTERDAY’S PICKS:

$DECK:  Not even close to an entry.  Good not taking it short today.

$TSLA:  I did not enter, but my trigger would have been hit if I kept it on.  Let’s see if this trade pays off tomorrow.

$LOW:  You would have been triggered in.  Again, I did not get in due to the horrible week I had.  We will see how it works out tomorrow.

$BBBY:  No trade since earnings came out.

$TWC:  I know I didn’t mention this one yesterday, but I did a few days ago.  It exploded out of it’s bull flag yesterday and today.  Huge gains to be had… unfortunately, I missed it.

REAL ACCOUNT ACTIVITY:

$FSLR:  CLOSED (-15%).   Well this trade just went against me.  Can’t really say much else than that.  I do wish I had mitigated my loss a little bit better, but it failed to break out bullish… so be it.

$AAPL:  CLOSED (+7%):  Hey! Finally a green trade!  What a horrible case of the “shanks” I’ve had.  Glad to have gotten in and out.  I MAY get back in short tomorrow depending on price action, but tomorrow may just be a sideline day for me.

Picks for tomorrow coming soon.

 

 

 

Picks and Observations for Thursday, June 27, 2013: $DECK, $LOW, $TSLA, $BBBY

Hi all, here is a quick peak at 4 plays I’m looking at in the near term.

$DECK:  This one kicked my butt recently, but it won’t happen again.  I am going to take a more conservative approach this time.  I like going short on a close below $46.55.  First target is 44.67.  It will be a quick trade for me due to the 200 SMA and there is a gap below that.  DECK_JUNE_27_2013

$LOW:  There is a short term downward channel/wedge forming.  A close above the gap, above the 50SMA and the aforementioned developing pattern on good volume should indicate a bullish run.  My entry is on a close above 41.05 with a target of 43.18.  Stop TBD.LOW_JUNE_26_2013

$TSLA:  This is another entry on close type trade.  This time the entry is 107.20 with a target of 113.48.  Stop is TBD.TSLA_JUNE_27_2013

$BBBY:  This stock looks strong considering the indecision going on in the market.  I like an entry on a close above 70.38.  Target is 71.92.  Stop is TBD.  For the aggressive, you may want to try the 15min entry.  The reason for this is because we closed above the long term downward trend line and above the 50 SMA.  UPDATE:  BBBY posted earnings tonight.  Sales were down 2.1%.  Not sure how this will effect the chart, but always keep earnings in mind on your stocks!BBBY_JUNE_27_2013

Remember to stick to your plan and take deliberate and calculated trades.   Goodnight all!

Market Review June 26, 2013

Let me start by saying I got beat down in my personal account today.  It’s very frustrating, but I have no one to blame but myself.  I will get into more detail below but for now, let’s look at the market for today.  The market acted as I was expecting.  Low volume bullish day.  I think we go bullish one more day for the 50SMA.  If we break it, the bulls will be in control.  If we fail (which I think is more likely), the bearish trend will be back on.  I think we are in a bearish flag right now.  Stochs are down, MACD is a long ways from crossing upwards and volume has been declining since this little bounce.  We did, however, close above resistance of 159.69 giving slight credibility to the upward move.SPY_JUNE_26_2013

REVIEW OF YESTERDAY’S PICKS:

$FSLR:  Unfortunately you would have gotten triggered in at the top and lost, like me.

$BIDU:  You never would have gotten triggered.

$AWAY:  I’m not sure how this trade would have turned out for you.  But for me, it turned out horribly.  I did not get triggered in right at the open (I’m not sure why since my order was in before the market opened) but a few seconds later after the price spiked.

$AAPL:  You would have gotten triggered in.

REAL ACCOUNT ACTIVITY:

Enjoy the sea of red.  I think my problem right now is over-trading and not “cherry picking” my trades.

$FSLR:  OPENED (-7%) I waited and got burned.  This one did not move like I expected.  Stop is at 44.17.  Still target of 47.35.

$DECK:  CLOSED (-20%) Not much to say.  Bad trade.  I should have had my stop tighter.  I was hoping for this one to go down.  Terrible trade mentality.

$UA:  CLOSED (-33%)  See $DECK explanation.

$AWAY:  OPENED/CLOSED (-13%)  As I mentioned above, I got triggered into this trade much later than I was expecting which put me at a very unexpected deficit.  As a result, I had to move my stop up to mitigate my loss causing me to get stopped out.

$AAPL OPENED (-2%)  I bought a put right at 3:45 on the low only to see the stock float up a bit before the close.  Ultimately we did not close below my target which is worrisome.  In addition, AAPL is incredibly undersold.  We have only been lower one other time in the last 6 years.  That being said, I still like an intra-day tag down to 388.  I think tomorrow is the last shot before some sort of bounce/bear flag.

I’ll be doing some picks, but only 4.  I need to figure out what is causing me to do so horribly these last 3 days and rectify the situation.

Stock Picks for Wednesday, June 26 2013: $FSLR, $BIDU, $AWAY, $AAPL

Hi all.  Short update tonight due to the current market indecision we are facing.

$FSLR:  We had a nice rebound after testing resistance at 40.88.  I believe there is a lot of upside to this stock with a target of 47.35 (50 SMA).  Enter after the first 15min, put your stop below the low of the first 15min candle.

FSLR_JUNE_26_2013

 

$BIDU:  I still like this one short from yesterday.  We had a light volume doji today where we tested the 100SMA.  I like this one after 15min confirmation.  Target is 84.15.BIDU_JUNE_26_2013

$AWAY:  A very nice strong, proud breakout on good volume from the symmetrical triangle.  Thanks to @innov8v for pointing out this trade!  This is a market opening entry.  My stop will be below the first 15min candle once it forms.AWAY_JUNE_26_2013

$AAPL:  Lastly, I have been calling for this one and I have been ignoring my own voice.  If we had gotten in on a close below 416, we had two days to take profits.  Well, I think there is opportunity for more bearish moving.  A close below 397.75 and we should be heading towards 388.  AAPL_JUNE_26_2013

I think I may be over-trading and trying to force trades so I’m going to stick with these four for tonight.  Good luck everyone!

 

Market Review June 25, 2013

Today’s action showed a rebound from yesterday’s doji candle.  Despite closing below the 100 SMA yesterday, we closed back above it today despite weak volume.  I believe a close above today’s wick means we will fight against the 50 SMA.  Above that and we could be out of this short term bearish trend.  That being said, we could always be forming some sort of bearish flag/pennant pattern on declining volume that will ultimately take us lower.  Notice that intersecting trend line I drew (yesterday’s candle broke it briefly.  I’m not sure how “real” that line is, but it is interesting for a different perspective.  Personally, I believe tomorrow will be a moderately bullish day but on even lower volume.  But hey, nothing says we can’t trade down to Monday’s lows.

SPY_JUNE_25_2013

REVIEW OF YESTERDAY’s PICKS:

$BIDU:  We did not open down so you would not have taken this trade.  If you did take the trade, you would have needed to recognize the double bottom that formed between 10:30 and 11:00.  Otherwise this trade would not have been profitable… yet.  I still believe BIDU is heading south.

$JNJ:  If you took this trade, you would have made a few pennies on it.  I believe JNJ is a strong stock that is going higher.

$CAT:  We did not open down, so you would not have take this trade.

$VLO:  You would not have been triggered in.

$AEO: You would not have been triggered in.

$AXP: You would not have been triggered in.

$FCX:  We did not open down.  No trade.

$TWC: No break out.  I’m surprised we were down on a bullish market day.  Does not speak well for a breakout.  Volume was moderately strong as well.

$GS:  You would not have been triggered in; we did not open down.

$T:  You would not have been triggered in.

$FSLR:  This would have been a good trade to jump into at the open.

I’ll be honest, I was expecting a bullish day, and the market definitely tricked me.  That being said, it’s important to maintain your stops so you don’t get caught with your proverbial pants down like I just did as you will see below…

REAL ACCOUNT ACTIVITY:

$DECK HOLDING (-15%):  We bounced and I was not expecting it.  Stubbornly I held.  My stop is at 48.75.  I’d like to see a down day tomorrow, but I think I will have to take my medicine and my stop will be hit.  These types of losses are not good for my account.  I need to learn to minimize them better.

$UA HOLDING (-24%):  This is even worse of a play than DECK.  This is just stubborn emotional trading.  I could have minimized my risk and lived to see another day.  Now I am hoping for a down day to recoup some losses.  Not a smart way to trade, and I know it.  My stop is at 58.07.  Again, I can’t afford to be taking these types of losses.  I either need to hedge or cut out sooner.

I’m hoping for a more cheerful day tomorrow.  Stay tuned for my picks for tomorrow.

Stock Picks for June 25, 2013: $BIDU, $JNJ, $CAT, $VLO

Tomorrow is a new day.  Only account gains tomorrow! 🙂

I’ll provide one long play, but the rest of my plays are still short.  Personally, I think tomorrow is going to be a mixed bag for stocks.  That being said, let’s see if the market cooperates:

$BIDU:  This guy looks ripe for the shorting regardless of what the market is doing.  Overall we are in a major downtrend, price just got below all of the MAs, oscillators support and volume, while not huge, supports the bearish move.  This is a 15min entry for me tomorrow.  84.15 is my target:BIDU_JUNE_25_2013

$JNJ:  Here is the bullish trade.  JNJ is a strong stock, not overly affected by this recent downward move.  In addition, it actually had an up day today while mostly everything else was down.  It would be nice to see the market support the move, but we definitely need a close above today’s wick and the 50MA.  For an aggressive play, get in on a close above 85.35 or more conservatively on a close above 86.54.JNJ_JUNE_25_2013

$CAT:  I have been waiting for a close below support for a while on this one and it finally happened today.  I missed getting in, but this ought to be a good 15min rule entry.  We are in a medium term downtrend and I think it can continue to at least a target of 80.10.CAT_JUNE_25_2013

$VLO:  Lastly we have VLO which was good to me on Friday.  I probably should have held onto it, but hindsight is 20/20.  Looking at it now, if we break below 33.20, I don’t see much support until 29.60.  Looking for that close to take advantage of this trade:VLO_JUNE_25_2013

Some other ideas for tomorrow:

$AEO 15min bear.  Target of 17.00

$AXP 15min bear.  Target of 70.45

$FCX 15min bear.  Target of 25.87

$TWC:  Keep watching for a breakout out of this bullish flag.

$GS: 15min bear.  Target of 147.72

$T:  Bearish with a close below 34.70.  Target of 33.63.

$FSLR:  Pure speculation play.  Obama will be talking about renewable energy in a positive light so this may be a good long play.

Goodnight all, and good luck!

Market Overview June 24, 2013

Good afternoon everyone!  Well today was yet another bearish day.  It probably would have been worse had we not gotten a statement from the FED.  As such, that is sure to make the rest of the week very interesting.  Were these the words that will lead to a bullish reversal or was it just one afternoon of light buying to make today’s sell-off not seem as bad.  Volume was still pretty steady today as it has been over the last two sessions with some strong selling in the last 5min.  It will be interesting to see if that selling continues tomorrow or if we start to reverse.  Note that RSI still has some room to move lower as to Stochs and MACD.SPY_JUNE_24_2013

REVIEW OF YESTERDAY’S PICKS:

$AAPL:  Great 15min entry.  At the day’s low you would have been up $6.00.  At the close you would be up about $2.00

$WFC:  No entry

$DIS:  No Entry

$TWC:  No Entry

$DECK:  You would be about even on close and up a few points at the day’s bottom.  Not a great day trade.

$GS:  You would be down unless you sold at today’s lows.  Here is a note; if a stock opens up down and then has a long bearish candle and you are near your target, it is not a good idea to execute a trade.  The 15min rule assumes that you still have a good R/R ratio.

$VMW: You would have gotten triggered in at the end of the day.

$GPS: No trigger

$FSLR:  Looks like it may have found a bottom.  Keep watching!

$IBM:  Same as GS.

$VLO:  This would have been an excellent day trade.  You would have been up almost $1.00 or if you held through close you would still be up $0.50.

REAL ACCOUNT ACTIVITY:

$DECK  OPENED (-5%)  I still like the looks of this trade short (unless the market reverses.  I do not see resistance until 44.80 or so.  However, I did notice after the fact that this stock has been trading with less volume than I would like.  As a result, I am going to tighten my stop a bit above today’s high at 48.65.  I’m hoping this trade will not go against me, but it teaches me a lesson to keep a close eye on the amount of volume.

$UA:  OPENED (-13%)  This trade did not do well for me today.  I was expecting the selloff to continue but the FED came in and the market moved up.  Such is life.  My stop is at 57.40, but if the markets look strong I may tighten even further and lick my wounds.  My target to get out (hopefully on an intraday tag) is 55.05.  I have no good reason for not taking the AAPL trade other than fear and emotion.  My analysis was correct and that is the chart I spent more time on.  I should have stuck with my analysis.

Picks for tomorrow will be up soon.  Thanks for reading!