Market Review for June 19, 2013

So Uncle Ben speaks today and the market nose dives.  Is this going to be a new trend?  Well to be honest, I have no idea where we go from here, but I’d like to think we’ll have a direction chosen by the end of the week.  I thought we would have been green this morning, but stocks started out rather flat and the DOW was down around 30 points prior to the Fed speaking.  That being said, I wasn’t surprised at how the market reacted after the meeting.  Unfortunately, I had some sort of lapse of judgement and got into a horrible position that I will discuss later on, but first, let’s look at SPY.

We are back into that triangle, but we do have support on the lower trend line which we could hit tomorrow or Friday.  In addition, we have both the 50 EMA and SMA to contend with that just happen to be sitting at that lower trend line.  As a result, I think the rest of the week will be down and that is where we bounce to go higher.  However, if we break through, well then the bearish move will still be on:

SPY_JUNE_19_2013

REAL POSITIONS

$JNJ:  CLOSED -6%  I knew that I needed to move my stop up to prevent any damaging losses and I’m very happy that I did.  I was around even at one point today, so I trailed my stop up.  I’m very thankful I had the foresight to do so.  After I was stopped out, the stock plunged down over a dollar.  I only wish that I had bought puts, but it wasn’t part of my plan so I did not do it.  Not a bad loss (I only had 2 contracts), but it could have been a better trade.

$FCX:  HOLDING  I am finally up 3% on this miserable trade.  My target is still 29.00 and I am holding true to that.  I will probably be up around 10% after commission if my target is reached.  I am happy that I have stuck through this trade.  

$JPM: ENTERED at 54.20.  I am furious with myself over this trade.  I got into this on pure speculation.  It was emotional, a gamble and not part of my trading plan.  For some reason, I had a feeling that financials were going to benefit from the Fed talk, so I bought 2 JPM contracts on a whim.  Stupid horrible idea.  I am down about 15% on the trade so far. Seeing as I believe the market is going to continue down and my contracts expire in August, I MAY hold my calls and I MAY play puts tomorrow assuming that the market and stock move that way.  I do see the 20 EMA as providing support for this stock, so I need to be careful.  I don’t want to get burned doubly.  I will have to wait and see how the market is going to open tomorrow.  I’d like to salvage this trade, but it may be wiser to just close my position and take advantage at a different and better time.  Simply awful.  To be honest, this one angers me more than the $VZ trade.  The $VZ trade was a pure accident, this was just buffoonery and greed.  

REVIEW OF YESTERDAY’S PICKS:

$FSLR:  Would have been a nice day trade short, but since I was playing closes, you would have gotten triggered in on the aggressive position but not the conservative one. 

$AEO:  You would have gotten triggered.  Would need to wait until tomorrow to see how that pans out.

$AAPL:  While you would have gotten triggered, I would not have take this one since it is getting very close to the next support line of 416.

$SLV:  Triggered.  I was so distracted by that JPM trade I totally missed this one.  Very disappointing!  I’m going to have to turn this into a “first 15min” trade tomorrow.

Nothing else looks like it would have triggered.

Stock picks up soon!

 

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