Market Review June 25, 2013

Today’s action showed a rebound from yesterday’s doji candle.  Despite closing below the 100 SMA yesterday, we closed back above it today despite weak volume.  I believe a close above today’s wick means we will fight against the 50 SMA.  Above that and we could be out of this short term bearish trend.  That being said, we could always be forming some sort of bearish flag/pennant pattern on declining volume that will ultimately take us lower.  Notice that intersecting trend line I drew (yesterday’s candle broke it briefly.  I’m not sure how “real” that line is, but it is interesting for a different perspective.  Personally, I believe tomorrow will be a moderately bullish day but on even lower volume.  But hey, nothing says we can’t trade down to Monday’s lows.

SPY_JUNE_25_2013

REVIEW OF YESTERDAY’s PICKS:

$BIDU:  We did not open down so you would not have taken this trade.  If you did take the trade, you would have needed to recognize the double bottom that formed between 10:30 and 11:00.  Otherwise this trade would not have been profitable… yet.  I still believe BIDU is heading south.

$JNJ:  If you took this trade, you would have made a few pennies on it.  I believe JNJ is a strong stock that is going higher.

$CAT:  We did not open down, so you would not have take this trade.

$VLO:  You would not have been triggered in.

$AEO: You would not have been triggered in.

$AXP: You would not have been triggered in.

$FCX:  We did not open down.  No trade.

$TWC: No break out.  I’m surprised we were down on a bullish market day.  Does not speak well for a breakout.  Volume was moderately strong as well.

$GS:  You would not have been triggered in; we did not open down.

$T:  You would not have been triggered in.

$FSLR:  This would have been a good trade to jump into at the open.

I’ll be honest, I was expecting a bullish day, and the market definitely tricked me.  That being said, it’s important to maintain your stops so you don’t get caught with your proverbial pants down like I just did as you will see below…

REAL ACCOUNT ACTIVITY:

$DECK HOLDING (-15%):  We bounced and I was not expecting it.  Stubbornly I held.  My stop is at 48.75.  I’d like to see a down day tomorrow, but I think I will have to take my medicine and my stop will be hit.  These types of losses are not good for my account.  I need to learn to minimize them better.

$UA HOLDING (-24%):  This is even worse of a play than DECK.  This is just stubborn emotional trading.  I could have minimized my risk and lived to see another day.  Now I am hoping for a down day to recoup some losses.  Not a smart way to trade, and I know it.  My stop is at 58.07.  Again, I can’t afford to be taking these types of losses.  I either need to hedge or cut out sooner.

I’m hoping for a more cheerful day tomorrow.  Stay tuned for my picks for tomorrow.

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