Trader Remorse and Market Recap for Tuesday, July 9

The bulls are here to stay!!  Or are they?  Taking a look at the S&P ($SPX) (posted below), I’m seeing that today we were one penny shy of the high from 6/18.  What happened after that?  Two rather colossal down days.  I’m not predicting that happens, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we had a little down day that tests the bottom trend line and perhaps even the 50 SMA.  One big difference between now and then is that MACD had not crossed whereas now it has crossed and looks strong.  Looking at the $SPY, we broke above that bottom trend line, but I would like to see some stronger volume coming into play.  Lastly, looking at the $DOW, we have not cracked the overhead resistance line that started forming with the wick on 5/21.  I would like to see a break above this line.  Overall, I am bullish on this market…. for now.SPX_JULY_9_2013

REAL ACCOUNT ACTIVITY:

I had no picks from yesterday, so I’m moving straight into the real account activity.  I have to be honest, I am getting incredibly discouraged.  A few more abysmal days and I may begin paper trading until I see some more consistent results.  My account is down 50% from when I first start in early 2012.  Granted I didn’t know what I was doing that, but even with the knowledge and technical experience I have gained, I am still down about 20% since March.  Part of this is due to bad technical analysis (see the $LULU and $POT trades).  Others due to stupid mistakes (see $VZ) trade, but overall I feel like I am psyching myself out because of the losses I have incurred.  I am not taking profits when I should because I am trying to let the stocks run and I am incurring losses that are too large on the losing side.  All this compounds into big down days.  Now, I am playing with options which may also be part of the cause, but I just do not have the money to be buying 100 shares of various stocks and then trying to write covered calls etc.  Again, I think I may move over to paper trading for a little while until I start becoming more successful.  The last thing I want to do is blow up my account.    Anyway, here is the review:

$AAPL:  CLOSED (-11%).  I was up 15% at one point early this morning, but due to being at work I was unable to move my stop down and maintain my profit.  I also had the through of “letting the trade breath” but my stop was hit and the rest was history.  Very disappointed I wasn’t able to take profits when I wanted.

$AAPL:  OPEN/CLOSED (+2%).  I entered in long once AAPL was above $3 on the day.  I made a measly gain that I closed out at around $419.  I was spooked by the earlier trade, but had I waited I would have just about pared my loss.

$LNKD: HOLDING (-2%).  From up 11% to down 2%.  I’m not exactly expecting a rebound tomorrow.  Looking at the past 6 months, a down day is almost always followed by another down day.  I will probably get stopped out.

$AXP:  HOLDING (+24%).  This trade looks good percentage-wise (and it is).  But compared to the AAPL and LULU loss, it is a small gain.  I am moving my stop up to lock-in gains.

$UA:  HOLDING (+3%).  I’m not overly confident with this trade any more.  I’ve moved my stop up to avoid any significant loss.

I truly feel like I am very close to doing well in this thing called trading, but I need to figure out better risk management especially when trading options.  I certainly do not want to give up, but paper trading may be the only way to salvage my account while I find my groove.

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2 thoughts on “Trader Remorse and Market Recap for Tuesday, July 9

  1. AAPL looks good long, maybe $460, looking at weekly chart
    LNKD is a tough call, could be hitting resistance
    AXP is close to key price level of 78.50, if can break through…
    UA looks good to about 64 or 65
    LULU I know you probably don’t want to look at this anymore, but keep an eye on it, downward pressure and nice bear flag on weekly chart
    POT I still have this one short as I don’t use stops, right now down about 40%, maybe in a channel on weekly chart, so doesn’t bode well for me over next week or so, but I have over 100 days, we’ll see
    BTU may have bottomed out, but I have never had good luck picking bottoms
    COST wonderful trends on weekly and monthly charts
    DECK looks good for a $2 move up
    QCOM looks good short, funny story just closed this one out at a heavy loss and I had a put since April…time decay hurts
    CELG nice high and tight bull flag on monthly chart
    XONE, does this have options?
    DMND on monthly chart looks like it has bottomed out

    Thanks for the posts Mark, good stuff…I will let you know if I get any better results on my back testing

    Good trading!

    • Jose,

      Thanks very much for your feedback, I appreciate it! Although I didn’t post it, I am short in LNKD to cover my call. I’m not sure how that will work out, but I hope to take profit on the put and then earn back any losses on the call. Time will tell.

      I know you are in BBY and NVDA. I’d be careful of NVDA since it is below the 50 SMA. BBY could go either way. Good luck with your trades!

      -Mark

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