Potential Return

Hello everyone,

It’s been a long time since I’ve posted.  After the mounting frustration of loss after loss, I decided it was time to take a break from trading.  After some time, I slowly started to get back into looking at the market and analyzing a few stocks here and there.  I also took a step back and analyzed my trades and realized I was making some very fundamental mistakes  (i.e. trading against the trend, holding losing trades, trading on a whim, not letting winners run, etc).  While reacquainting myself with the market, I also took time to review old technical analysis course material.  I resumed trading in October, just taking on a couple of trades per week.  I wasn’t coming out in the green, but I also wasn’t losing either.  It was extremely encouraging to me that my account was holding steady.  After the new year, I decided I wanted to get back into trading more frequently, and I am happy to say that since that time, my account has been a positive 2%.  This may not seem like much, but just being in the green over a period of almost 4 months while trading almost daily has been such a great and exciting experience.  I am keeping my losses small and letting my winners run as best I can.  I fully believe that I have improved and taking a step back may have been just what I needed to push forward and become a better trader.

As far as this blog goes, I am not sure how often I will update it.  Probably not daily, at least, not at first, but I certainly want to update at least once per week.  So here is what I’m looking at for Monday’s trading session:

$DD

Dupont has been in a strong uptrend since October of 2014.  There is an ascending trend line that the stock has bounced off three times since the uptrend.  It is now sitting on that trend line for a 4th time.  I see this as an excellent R/R trade.  Approximately 60 cent risk for a potential $10 gain or more. As long as it’s not up more than a dollar at open, I plan on buying a few calls.

DD

$EXPE

Expedia just broke out to an all-time high.  I see this as another good R/R trade.  The risk is ~$1.  Reward is ~$4.  First target is $100.

EXPE

Some other stocks I’m watching: $COF, $AXP, $MA, $AAPL.

As far as $AAPL goes, I am expecting it to go lower, but if it holds at this level, I plan to buy around $130.  Otherwise, I’ll be looking for a bullish entry around $122.

Thanks for reading and happy trading!

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5 thoughts on “Potential Return

  1. Good to see you back! I will be following with great interest. Enjoy reading comments from someone who is as passionate as I am. I am working on something as well that is very simple. I will let you know once I have more data. Talk to you soon and happy trading.

    • Hi Jose,

      Thanks for the kind words. I’d love to get your thoughts on my posts. Any new perspective is more than welcomed. I’m interested to hear what you have been working on as well. Talk soon. Take care.

      • $DD is sitting on support in a great upward channel; $EXPE looks to be hitting an upward resistance line for the 4th time, so may get a small draw down, but if it breaks that resistance looks good; $JNJ bounce off a nice support line a couple of weeks ago and looks to go to $108; $PFE and $VLO looking strong, but since I am a bit of a contrarian I stay away from stocks doing this well

        So, let me know your thoughts on these four picks…$BAX, $PRU, $LNG and $NFLX. Keep in mind this is a paper account. I am long $BAX and $PRU and short $LNG and $NFLX. I am basically using all my (paper) capital on only four positions evenly. They are all in fairly long term channels. I am up 3.7% on $NFLX, 2.3% on $BAX and about 1% on $PRU…down on $LNG about 4%. Looking for targets of $90 for $PRU, $74ish for $BAX, $380 for $NFLX and about $70 for $LNG

        Have a great week my friend.

        Jose

      • Jose,
        Thanks for the feedback. I’ll have to take a look at your stocks tomorrow. Hopefully it won’t be too late to analyze. Have a good night!

  2. Hi Jose,

    Looking at BAX, it looks like a dangerous long play because mid term, it is in a down trend. PRU I would not have traded long until it go above $84.19, or now that a down trend appears to be forming, I would wait to go long at support. LNG is in an uptrend, so again, it is a dangerous short play. NFLX, however, looks like a good near-term short down to 402. Best of luck and let me know how it goes.

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