April 5 Update

Hello all,

I’ve been keeping an eye on the market and it seems as though we are at or very close to a breaking point on a descending triangle.  This is true both of the DOW and the S&P.  Will we bounce or will we push lower?  There’s no answer to that until it actually happens.  Once it does happen, the direction of the market will become more clear and trades with low risk and high reward can be taken.

On a side note, with the addition of $AAPL to the DOW, I believe the S&P is a better indicator of overall market health.  So any time I reference “the market”, I am talking about the S&P unless otherwise specified.

A number of stocks are at key support levels, some are in bollinger band squeezes, and others are in existing down-trends.  Let’s take a look at a couple of stocks exhibiting this behavior:

$JNJ:

As can be seen, $JNJ has been in a down trend in recent months.  It appeared to have formed a double bottom, but it is about to retest that bottom.  $JNJ was in a downward channel, but made a higher high and slightly broke out of the channel which is slightly concerning.  However, if it breaks and closes below $98, I’m looking for a swing trade over the course of a week or two down to $95.  MACD is already looking slightly bearish and a close below $98 should support a short trade.  The other way to play this stock is to go long if it bounces off $98, but that would be a counter trend trade and would require a tight stop.  JNJ$LVS is another stock in a downward trend worth looking at.

$FSLR:

This stock does not necessarily follow the trend of the overall market.  As a matter of fact, it has been in a side-ways pattern for around a month or so and is now in a bollinger-band squeeze.  Whichever way it breaks out of the band is the direction I would take the trade.  However, I would start with a small position due to the possibility of a “head fake”.FSLR$HES is a stock just about to enter into a bollinger band squeeze.

$EXPE

$EXPE is a great example of a stock breaking out.  The only thing I am concerned with is if the market pushes lower, the breakout could fizzle.  A low risk trade would be watching for $EXPE to come back to $96.74 before getting in and keeping a tight stop.  You may miss the move with this approach, so the alternative is to get in at market open understanding that you’ll want a wide stop.EXPE

$EBAY:

$EBAY is and has been in a nice uptrend.  It sits on the ascending trend line and is a good low risk/reward play.  However, this one may also depend on the direction of the market.  MACD is looking bearish so the stock may roll over.  If it does $55.50 is the first target.  $54.00 is the second.  If we get a bounce, $59.70 looks likely as a first target.EBAY$BBY is another stock in a similar up-trend.

That wraps up this update.  Have a great night, hope you had a happy Easter.  Good night and happy trading!

24 March Update

The markets pulled back further today after yesterday’s sell-off, but the bull-ish trend is still in tact.  I am still cautiously bullish, but there isn’t much that is catching my eye right now.

Real Account Update

$DD

Dupont seems to have broken the upward channel.  I’m a few cents away from my stop but see another opportunity to enter bullishly at $75.00 if my stop is hit.  That being said, the stock closed on it’s 100 SMA, which may prove as support.  Overall my loss will be minimal if I do get stopped out.  At this time, I have no plans to short

DD

Stocks I’m watching:

$AAPL, $LVS, $TWTR, $FSLR, $VLO.

For $AAPL, I’m still looking for the 129.50 entry.  $LVS looks like it’s rolling over.  I’m looking at a potential short trade.  Both $TWTR and $FSLR broke out today.  I am looking at potential continuation patterns.  $VLO, I am still looking for a break out before getting in long.

That’s all I have for tonight.  Happy Trading!

23 March Update

So the $DOW had a nasty sell-off at the end of the day, but still remains in an uptrend.  Meanwhile, the S&P, which also sold off, is starting to flatten out a bit.  Overall, I’m cautiously bullish.  If the trend of the last few trading sessions plays out, we can expect a white candle tomorrow.

Real Account Update:

Reviewing yesterday’s trades, $DD was up slightly. I was able to get into the trade around the lows of the day.  I bought the stock outright, rather than buying calls.  $DD held the ascending trend line and still looks healthy.

$EXPE sold off with the rest of the market.  I was hesitant to get into the trade, due to the volatile open.  $EXPE sits on solid resistance, so this is an even better bullish entry with less risk and more reward.  I’m not sure I will take the trade, but I’m very interested to see how the stock moves tomorrow.

What I’m looking at:

$JNJ

$JNJ has been in a down trend since the end of last year.  However, a double bottom may be in (see chart below).  If we close above the “neck line”, I like $JNJ long; first target ~$106.50.JNJ

$PFE

PFizer just closed at its all-time high today.  You can see that MACD is about to turn positive and volume was strong on today’s breakout.  The long wick is a little concerning, but this entry provides low risk/high reward.  First target is $36.03.PFE

$VLO

Lastly, Valero is on the cusp of a breakout to all time highs with MACD just starting to turn bullish.  If this one breaks out, I like a medium term target (approximately 1 month) of $68.45.VLO

  On My Radar:

$COH, $MA, $SBUX, $TIF, $WFC, $AAPL

Just a quick note on $AAPL; although it gapped up slightly, the candle was still one of indecision.  I’m still looking for the $129.50 entry.

That’s all for tonight.  Happy trading!

Potential Return

Hello everyone,

It’s been a long time since I’ve posted.  After the mounting frustration of loss after loss, I decided it was time to take a break from trading.  After some time, I slowly started to get back into looking at the market and analyzing a few stocks here and there.  I also took a step back and analyzed my trades and realized I was making some very fundamental mistakes  (i.e. trading against the trend, holding losing trades, trading on a whim, not letting winners run, etc).  While reacquainting myself with the market, I also took time to review old technical analysis course material.  I resumed trading in October, just taking on a couple of trades per week.  I wasn’t coming out in the green, but I also wasn’t losing either.  It was extremely encouraging to me that my account was holding steady.  After the new year, I decided I wanted to get back into trading more frequently, and I am happy to say that since that time, my account has been a positive 2%.  This may not seem like much, but just being in the green over a period of almost 4 months while trading almost daily has been such a great and exciting experience.  I am keeping my losses small and letting my winners run as best I can.  I fully believe that I have improved and taking a step back may have been just what I needed to push forward and become a better trader.

As far as this blog goes, I am not sure how often I will update it.  Probably not daily, at least, not at first, but I certainly want to update at least once per week.  So here is what I’m looking at for Monday’s trading session:

$DD

Dupont has been in a strong uptrend since October of 2014.  There is an ascending trend line that the stock has bounced off three times since the uptrend.  It is now sitting on that trend line for a 4th time.  I see this as an excellent R/R trade.  Approximately 60 cent risk for a potential $10 gain or more. As long as it’s not up more than a dollar at open, I plan on buying a few calls.

DD

$EXPE

Expedia just broke out to an all-time high.  I see this as another good R/R trade.  The risk is ~$1.  Reward is ~$4.  First target is $100.

EXPE

Some other stocks I’m watching: $COF, $AXP, $MA, $AAPL.

As far as $AAPL goes, I am expecting it to go lower, but if it holds at this level, I plan to buy around $130.  Otherwise, I’ll be looking for a bullish entry around $122.

Thanks for reading and happy trading!