Picks for Wednesday July 10, 2013: $BTU, $COST, $DECK, $QCOM, $CELG, $XONE, $DMND

I have a quite a list for you all to make up for lost time and because a lot of these look ripe for the taking!  Let’s get started:

$BTU:  I like a close above 16.21 with a target of 18.00.  Oscillators are starting to turn around and I think a break above the 16.21 line will set this stock on a bullish uptrend.  Stop TBD.BTU_JULY_10_2013

$COST:  If you had been watching this, you would have gotten triggered in today.  Sadly, I was not watching.  I think this guy is going higher.  15min bullish entry with a target of 115.39.  Stop is 112.00COST_JULY_10_2013

$DECK:  This stock has been strong ever since I thought to buy puts a few weeks ago.  We just broke out of a long term and short term downward trend line.  I like this stock long with a 15min entry.  Targets are 55.42, 57.19 and 59.97.  Stop is 53.00DECK_JULY_10_2013

$QCOM:  We are in a clear downward channel.  I like an entry on a close below 58.86 or if you want to be aggressive, take a 15min short entry.  Target 1 is 57.36.  T2 is 56.56.  Stop is 60.40.  Careful on this one with the R/R ratio.QCOM_JULY_10_2013

$CELG:  I like this one long.  It looks strong and broke out of a short term downward trend line a few days ago.  This is a 15min entry with targets of 127.60 and 130.  The R/R ratio isn’t the best so watch out for this one as well.  CELG_JULY_10_2013

$XONE:  Pure speculation but this thing is so overly extended I can’t see how it wouldn’t have a pullback.  The only question is when.  Keep a close eye because it has a ways to fall.XONE_JULY_10_2013

$DMND:  This one just broke out from some long term resistance.  I like this one long on a 15min entry with a target of 24.19 followed by 26.38. Stop is 20.95DMND_JULY_10_2013

Best of luck with all of your trades and positions!

Trader Remorse and Market Recap for Tuesday, July 9

The bulls are here to stay!!  Or are they?  Taking a look at the S&P ($SPX) (posted below), I’m seeing that today we were one penny shy of the high from 6/18.  What happened after that?  Two rather colossal down days.  I’m not predicting that happens, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we had a little down day that tests the bottom trend line and perhaps even the 50 SMA.  One big difference between now and then is that MACD had not crossed whereas now it has crossed and looks strong.  Looking at the $SPY, we broke above that bottom trend line, but I would like to see some stronger volume coming into play.  Lastly, looking at the $DOW, we have not cracked the overhead resistance line that started forming with the wick on 5/21.  I would like to see a break above this line.  Overall, I am bullish on this market…. for now.SPX_JULY_9_2013

REAL ACCOUNT ACTIVITY:

I had no picks from yesterday, so I’m moving straight into the real account activity.  I have to be honest, I am getting incredibly discouraged.  A few more abysmal days and I may begin paper trading until I see some more consistent results.  My account is down 50% from when I first start in early 2012.  Granted I didn’t know what I was doing that, but even with the knowledge and technical experience I have gained, I am still down about 20% since March.  Part of this is due to bad technical analysis (see the $LULU and $POT trades).  Others due to stupid mistakes (see $VZ) trade, but overall I feel like I am psyching myself out because of the losses I have incurred.  I am not taking profits when I should because I am trying to let the stocks run and I am incurring losses that are too large on the losing side.  All this compounds into big down days.  Now, I am playing with options which may also be part of the cause, but I just do not have the money to be buying 100 shares of various stocks and then trying to write covered calls etc.  Again, I think I may move over to paper trading for a little while until I start becoming more successful.  The last thing I want to do is blow up my account.    Anyway, here is the review:

$AAPL:  CLOSED (-11%).  I was up 15% at one point early this morning, but due to being at work I was unable to move my stop down and maintain my profit.  I also had the through of “letting the trade breath” but my stop was hit and the rest was history.  Very disappointed I wasn’t able to take profits when I wanted.

$AAPL:  OPEN/CLOSED (+2%).  I entered in long once AAPL was above $3 on the day.  I made a measly gain that I closed out at around $419.  I was spooked by the earlier trade, but had I waited I would have just about pared my loss.

$LNKD: HOLDING (-2%).  From up 11% to down 2%.  I’m not exactly expecting a rebound tomorrow.  Looking at the past 6 months, a down day is almost always followed by another down day.  I will probably get stopped out.

$AXP:  HOLDING (+24%).  This trade looks good percentage-wise (and it is).  But compared to the AAPL and LULU loss, it is a small gain.  I am moving my stop up to lock-in gains.

$UA:  HOLDING (+3%).  I’m not overly confident with this trade any more.  I’ve moved my stop up to avoid any significant loss.

I truly feel like I am very close to doing well in this thing called trading, but I need to figure out better risk management especially when trading options.  I certainly do not want to give up, but paper trading may be the only way to salvage my account while I find my groove.

Market Review for Monday July 8, 2013

Good evening all!  I want to apologize for not posting on Friday and Sunday.  I was on vacation and unable to post.  Then, due to flight delays, I was unable to post on Sunday.  At any rate, I am back in business, so let’s get started.

Today was yet another doji, but we closed above the 50 MA again.  Volume was bland but oscillators and indicators support the bullish trend.  Ideally, I would really like to get above the bottom bullish trend line as well as resistance at 166.01.  For now, I am bullish on the market unless something proves otherwise.  SPY_JULY_9_2013

REVIEW OF PREVIOUS PICKS/REAL ACCOUNT:

$UA:  HOLDING (+3%)  This stock still looks bullish.  I like a target of 64.20.  I have my stop at 60.40. 

$MCD:  Never got triggered.  I still like this one bullish on a close above 100.90 with a target of 102.75

$XONE:  No trigger.  I still think this stock is way over extended and due for a big pullback.

$LULU:  CLOSED (-20%) This one was a technical mistake.  I should have used the wick from 6/12 and for some reason I ignored it.  Entering on a close below that wick would have been appropriate.  Unfortunately, that wick provided support at the stock bounced.  I like a bullish entry on a close above 66.85.

$AXP:  HOLDING (+10%)  I think this stock is strong, but I was not crazy about today’s close.  I may buy protective puts depending on the price action tomorrow.  For now my target is at 78.00 and my stop is at 75.00

$LNKD:  HOLDING (+11%) I think this stock is very strong.  I have my stop at 187.  I’m looking at targets of 194.60 and 200.00.

$TLT:  Would have been a nice trade on Friday, but today it rebounded.  You would have hit your target on Wednesday or Friday.

$AAPL:  HOLDING (-2%)  I am short AAPL back down to $400 with a stop at 417.

I am not going to be able to post picks for tomorrow due to time constraints, but I hope to be back in the swing of things tomorrow.  I think we will have another bullish day tomorrow.  I’m hoping AAPL continues its newly downward trend.  Good night all, and good luck!

Picks for July 5, 2013: $UA, $MCD, $XONE, $LULU, $AXP, $TLT, $GOOG

Happy 4th everyone!  With a half day of trading yesterday, the market has some time to “marinate” and hopefully make an indication of which direction it is going to take.  So let’s begin with some picks:

$UA:  I believe this stock is very strong.  A close above 60.96 looks to be a great long entry point.  However, if you want to be aggressive and believe we are going higher, you can enter on a 15min indication.  Indicators are pointing up, but I would ideally like to see volume increase on the bullish move.  UA_JULY_5_2013

$MCD:  It looks like we are breaking out of a short term bearish channel.  You may want to wait for a close above 100.55 or if you want to be more aggressive, you could take a 15min bullish trade.  Target is 102.75.MCD_JULY_5_2013

$XONE:  It looks like this bubble is bursting.  Notice the speed lines I drew.  The most recent line prior to yesterday’s drop is almost vertical.  I think this has a ways to drop.  My target is $53.45 or the speed line I highlighted.  Moreover, yesterday’s candle was a bullish-engulfing candle.  My stop will go above the first 15min candle.  This is definitely a 15min entry.XONE_JULY_5_2013

 

$LULU:  Bracket trade here:  I think the stronger probability is a bearish trade, but the bulls can still win out.  Bearish I like an entry of 63.80 with target of 61.60 and 59.65.  On the bullish side I like an entry of 66.85 and a target of 70.40.LULU_JULY_5_2013

 

$AXP:  What the heck, I’ll do one more since it’s a holiday.  AXP also looks like a bracket set-up.  Bearish entry is a close below 72.90 with a target of 70.45.  Bullish, I like an entry of 76.30 with a target of 78.20.AXP_JULY_5_2013

A couple of other little bonuses:

$TLT: I still like this short with a target of 107.78.  15min entry.

$GOOG:  I still like our entry of 895. with a target of 920.

Enjoy the rest of your holiday and happy trading!

Market Recap July 3, 2013

Happy Independence Day, Everyone!!

As we know, today was a half day of trading.  Taking that into account, it looks like volume was on par with yesterday’s action in the overall market.  However, we once again failed the 50 MA.  I’m not sure if or when we will break it, but I truly wish the market would pick a direction and get back into a trend.  Although it’s been true for over a week, it’s very obvious that we are range bound by the 50 and 100 SMAs.  Notice that Stochs are turning up as is MACD.  This could be an early signal that the bulls are ready to take control.  But as always, only time will tell.  I have re-assessed my analysis with a more defined bracket trade.  Currently, we look to be in a downward expanding triangle.  A break out of this trend (and subsequently a break above the 50 SMA) should send us higher.  A break below the 100 should keep this short term bearish trend in tact.  SPY_JULY_3_2013

REVIEW OF YESTERDAY’S PICKS:

$TLT:  You would have gotten triggered in bearish on the 15min rule finishing the day up $0.17.

$COST:  No Trigger

$UA:  No trigger, but it looks like Friday could be a good entry.

$GOOG: No trigger, but keep an eye on this one.  That bottom trend line looks strong.

REAL ACCOUNT ACTIVITY:

$POT:  HOLDING (-22%)  I see now that I probably went short right at support.  It’s all in the perspective of how you draw your trend lines.  I should have used the wick from the candle on 11/26.  Although percentage wise I’m down considerably, I am not down much monetarily.  My stop is remaining in place.  If I get stopped out on Friday, then so be it.

That wraps things up for tonight.  I hope to have some picks up tomorrow.  Again, wishing everyone a safe, fun, happy 4th!

Picks for Tomorrow July 3, 2013: $TLT, $COST, $UA, $GOOG

**Please note that the market closes at 1:00PM EST tomorrow.**

$TLT:  This is a bit of a risky trade in the sense that confirmation isn’t strong, but very low risk given your R/R ratio.  I think we will bounce off of that upper trendline down to around 107.82.  Although oscillators are turning up, it looks like we are in a bearish flag on declining volume.  So those are the major points of this trade.  I like this one on a 15min entry bearish.

$COST:  I have been watching this one for a while and I like it long on a close above 112.55.  Target is 115.40.COST_JULY_2_2013

$UA:  I like this one long as well on a close above 60.96.  I would really like to see volume pick up if we close above that entry point to confirm the trade.  I think this has a lot of upside with a target of 65.50.UA_JULY_3_2013

 

$GOOG:  The mighty Google.  Is it’s bullish run over?  It could be, but I think it has legs to run long if it breaks above 895.  Target is 920.  Notice that this would be an entry above a horizontal resistance and a short term downward trend line.  Stop is TBD.GOOG_JULY_3_2013

That’s about all for now.  Keep an eye and best of luck with all of your trades!

Another Day Another Doji; Market Review for July 2, 2013

Another day, another doji and another failed attempt at cracking the 50 SMA.  I’m not entirely sure what this means other than the fact that doji’s represent market uncertainty.  Could we be forming some sort of bearish flag?  I think it’s definitely possible as volume continues to decrease, but curiously, the oscillators are ticking upward.  MACD has almost crossed while Stochs have already crossed.  It’s very interesting where we may end up from here.  One thing to keep in mind tomorrow is that we only have a half day of trading.  Markets close at 1:00PM EST and then resume on Friday.  I can’t see us breaking the 50 on a half day.  I think we will just meander tomorrow and leave the move for Friday or maybe more probable; Monday.  Personally, I am still looking at a bearish break out, but time will tell.  SPY_JULY_2_2013

REVIEW OF YESTERDAY’S PICKS

$BBY:  This stock sunk like a rock today.  Fortunately, you never would have been triggered in bullishly.  Today looks like a tweezer top.  I’m not sure what this thing is going to do.  I’ll leave it be for now.

$WYNN:  WYNN you would have gotten triggered in at the end of the day.  I did not get in due to being so close to my first target of 125.  A close below it and I would go short down to 121.

$GS:  You would not have gotten triggered in at the end of the day.

$GPS:  You would have gotten in and then stopped out.

REAL ACCOUNT ACTIVITY:

$POT:  HOLDING (-7%)  I am sticking with my stop of 38.30.  

$GPS:  OPENED/CLOSED (-15%)  I only bought 1 contract so this loss was really pennies to my account.  I’m not sure if my stop was too tight, but we’ll see within a few days if it was in a good position or if I should have kept it lower.

 

Stock Picks for July 2, 2013: $BBY, $WYNN, $GS, $GPS

Let’s get right to it…

$BBY:  This stock broke out of a Bollinger Band with solid volume.  In addition, we are above the moving averages, oscillators are turning up, and RSI is at a healthy level.  I’m planning on getting in after the first 15min.  Now, please be warned, I am not experienced with Fibonacci retracements or extensions, but here is my crack at it.  I see a target of 31.61 and I plan on putting my stop below the first 15min candle. BBY_JULY_2_2013

$WYNN:  I believe we are in the midst of a bullish flag.  Note that volume has been declining.  I like getting in short on a close below 127.30.  My first target is 125 while the second is 121.77.  Stop is TBD.WYNN_JULY_2_2013

$GS:  This one seems to be shaping up into a sort of pennant.  I like this one short on a close below 150.70.  Target is 146.35.  I know we could also break bullish, but in that case we would already have to break above the 50 SMA.  We’ll see where we close, but right now my focus is on a bearish move.  Notice that volume has been decreasing in this pennant.  GS_JULY_2_2013

$GPS:  Last but not least, we have $GPS.  Interestingly, this is setting up very similar to BBY.  However, the volume was not as strong, so I’m not as convinced about this one, but it’s certainly worth keeping an eye on.  Again, I made an attempt at a fibonacci extension, so my first target is 44.60.  My stop will be below the first 15min candle.  Please let me know if you have any questions or comments on the fib lines that I drew.  GPS_JULY_2_2013

That about wraps it up.  Good night all, and as always, good luck!

Market Review from July 1, 2013

Three attempts at breaking the 50 day, 3 failures (although I’m not sure if Friday would count as an “attempt”). In addition, we have had sell-offs at the end of each of the last 3 days.  These are certainly not good signs for a bull move, but that doesn’t mean we won’t get one.  In looking at the SPY, volume was low again today.  Notice that RSI has plenty of room in either direction while MACD and Stochs are pointing up but have yet to cross.  I think when a “decision” is made, volume will correspond with the move and those oscillators will either cross or become more defined in the direction of the trend.  Until then, let’s sit tight and play it safe and enjoy the ride.SPY_JULY_2_2013

REVIEW OF YESTERDAY’S PICKS:

$AXP:  You would have gotten triggered in at the end of the day

$LULU:  You would not have gotten triggered in.

$POT:  You would have gotten triggered in at the end of the day.

I’d like to take a second to point out TSLA:  I picked that stock last Wednesday if we closed above 107.20.  If you had gotten in, you would have been down slightly Friday, but up huge today.  Once again, I did not take my own advice, but my confidence is building!

REAL ACCOUNT ACTIVITY:

$POT  OPENED I bought 3 contracts of $POT at the close today.  I’ll post a chart here to further show why I believe this is a good trade.  Not only are we below all of the SMAs, oscillators support the move and volume was huge today, but take a look at this medium term wedge-ish pattern that was broken today:  I am going to put my stop at 38.30 which corresponds to a gap from 11/14.  Although my first target is 36.80, a close below that should send this stock lower.  Let’s see what happens.

 

Picks for Tomorrow July 1, 2013: $AXP, $LULU, $POT

There isn’t a lot I am crazy about with the market still (imo) in an indecision phase.  However, here is what I think has potential:

$AXP: Bearish volume was strong on Friday, but a strong close above 75.50 should send this stock higher.  Stochs are reset and turning up while MACD is about the cross.  AXP_JULY_1_2013

$LULU:  LULU missed earnings, but it has the potential to recover from this recent sell-off. A close above 66.20 should send us to the 100 SMA.LULU_JULY_1_2013

 

$POT:  We are approaching oversold territory, but I don’t think we’re there yet.  A close below 37.70 looks like a good entry with a target of 36.80.  If 36.80 is breached, this one could have some legs in the bearish direction.POT_JULY_1_2013

There are a few other trades I’m looking at but I’m trying to keep my picks to a minimum and focus on the ones that have the best potential.

Good luck all, and happy trading.