April 5 Update

Hello all,

I’ve been keeping an eye on the market and it seems as though we are at or very close to a breaking point on a descending triangle.  This is true both of the DOW and the S&P.  Will we bounce or will we push lower?  There’s no answer to that until it actually happens.  Once it does happen, the direction of the market will become more clear and trades with low risk and high reward can be taken.

On a side note, with the addition of $AAPL to the DOW, I believe the S&P is a better indicator of overall market health.  So any time I reference “the market”, I am talking about the S&P unless otherwise specified.

A number of stocks are at key support levels, some are in bollinger band squeezes, and others are in existing down-trends.  Let’s take a look at a couple of stocks exhibiting this behavior:

$JNJ:

As can be seen, $JNJ has been in a down trend in recent months.  It appeared to have formed a double bottom, but it is about to retest that bottom.  $JNJ was in a downward channel, but made a higher high and slightly broke out of the channel which is slightly concerning.  However, if it breaks and closes below $98, I’m looking for a swing trade over the course of a week or two down to $95.  MACD is already looking slightly bearish and a close below $98 should support a short trade.  The other way to play this stock is to go long if it bounces off $98, but that would be a counter trend trade and would require a tight stop.  JNJ$LVS is another stock in a downward trend worth looking at.

$FSLR:

This stock does not necessarily follow the trend of the overall market.  As a matter of fact, it has been in a side-ways pattern for around a month or so and is now in a bollinger-band squeeze.  Whichever way it breaks out of the band is the direction I would take the trade.  However, I would start with a small position due to the possibility of a “head fake”.FSLR$HES is a stock just about to enter into a bollinger band squeeze.

$EXPE

$EXPE is a great example of a stock breaking out.  The only thing I am concerned with is if the market pushes lower, the breakout could fizzle.  A low risk trade would be watching for $EXPE to come back to $96.74 before getting in and keeping a tight stop.  You may miss the move with this approach, so the alternative is to get in at market open understanding that you’ll want a wide stop.EXPE

$EBAY:

$EBAY is and has been in a nice uptrend.  It sits on the ascending trend line and is a good low risk/reward play.  However, this one may also depend on the direction of the market.  MACD is looking bearish so the stock may roll over.  If it does $55.50 is the first target.  $54.00 is the second.  If we get a bounce, $59.70 looks likely as a first target.EBAY$BBY is another stock in a similar up-trend.

That wraps up this update.  Have a great night, hope you had a happy Easter.  Good night and happy trading!

24 March Update

The markets pulled back further today after yesterday’s sell-off, but the bull-ish trend is still in tact.  I am still cautiously bullish, but there isn’t much that is catching my eye right now.

Real Account Update

$DD

Dupont seems to have broken the upward channel.  I’m a few cents away from my stop but see another opportunity to enter bullishly at $75.00 if my stop is hit.  That being said, the stock closed on it’s 100 SMA, which may prove as support.  Overall my loss will be minimal if I do get stopped out.  At this time, I have no plans to short

DD

Stocks I’m watching:

$AAPL, $LVS, $TWTR, $FSLR, $VLO.

For $AAPL, I’m still looking for the 129.50 entry.  $LVS looks like it’s rolling over.  I’m looking at a potential short trade.  Both $TWTR and $FSLR broke out today.  I am looking at potential continuation patterns.  $VLO, I am still looking for a break out before getting in long.

That’s all I have for tonight.  Happy Trading!

23 March Update

So the $DOW had a nasty sell-off at the end of the day, but still remains in an uptrend.  Meanwhile, the S&P, which also sold off, is starting to flatten out a bit.  Overall, I’m cautiously bullish.  If the trend of the last few trading sessions plays out, we can expect a white candle tomorrow.

Real Account Update:

Reviewing yesterday’s trades, $DD was up slightly. I was able to get into the trade around the lows of the day.  I bought the stock outright, rather than buying calls.  $DD held the ascending trend line and still looks healthy.

$EXPE sold off with the rest of the market.  I was hesitant to get into the trade, due to the volatile open.  $EXPE sits on solid resistance, so this is an even better bullish entry with less risk and more reward.  I’m not sure I will take the trade, but I’m very interested to see how the stock moves tomorrow.

What I’m looking at:

$JNJ

$JNJ has been in a down trend since the end of last year.  However, a double bottom may be in (see chart below).  If we close above the “neck line”, I like $JNJ long; first target ~$106.50.JNJ

$PFE

PFizer just closed at its all-time high today.  You can see that MACD is about to turn positive and volume was strong on today’s breakout.  The long wick is a little concerning, but this entry provides low risk/high reward.  First target is $36.03.PFE

$VLO

Lastly, Valero is on the cusp of a breakout to all time highs with MACD just starting to turn bullish.  If this one breaks out, I like a medium term target (approximately 1 month) of $68.45.VLO

  On My Radar:

$COH, $MA, $SBUX, $TIF, $WFC, $AAPL

Just a quick note on $AAPL; although it gapped up slightly, the candle was still one of indecision.  I’m still looking for the $129.50 entry.

That’s all for tonight.  Happy trading!

Potential Return

Hello everyone,

It’s been a long time since I’ve posted.  After the mounting frustration of loss after loss, I decided it was time to take a break from trading.  After some time, I slowly started to get back into looking at the market and analyzing a few stocks here and there.  I also took a step back and analyzed my trades and realized I was making some very fundamental mistakes  (i.e. trading against the trend, holding losing trades, trading on a whim, not letting winners run, etc).  While reacquainting myself with the market, I also took time to review old technical analysis course material.  I resumed trading in October, just taking on a couple of trades per week.  I wasn’t coming out in the green, but I also wasn’t losing either.  It was extremely encouraging to me that my account was holding steady.  After the new year, I decided I wanted to get back into trading more frequently, and I am happy to say that since that time, my account has been a positive 2%.  This may not seem like much, but just being in the green over a period of almost 4 months while trading almost daily has been such a great and exciting experience.  I am keeping my losses small and letting my winners run as best I can.  I fully believe that I have improved and taking a step back may have been just what I needed to push forward and become a better trader.

As far as this blog goes, I am not sure how often I will update it.  Probably not daily, at least, not at first, but I certainly want to update at least once per week.  So here is what I’m looking at for Monday’s trading session:

$DD

Dupont has been in a strong uptrend since October of 2014.  There is an ascending trend line that the stock has bounced off three times since the uptrend.  It is now sitting on that trend line for a 4th time.  I see this as an excellent R/R trade.  Approximately 60 cent risk for a potential $10 gain or more. As long as it’s not up more than a dollar at open, I plan on buying a few calls.

DD

$EXPE

Expedia just broke out to an all-time high.  I see this as another good R/R trade.  The risk is ~$1.  Reward is ~$4.  First target is $100.

EXPE

Some other stocks I’m watching: $COF, $AXP, $MA, $AAPL.

As far as $AAPL goes, I am expecting it to go lower, but if it holds at this level, I plan to buy around $130.  Otherwise, I’ll be looking for a bullish entry around $122.

Thanks for reading and happy trading!

Trader Remorse and Market Recap for Tuesday, July 9

The bulls are here to stay!!  Or are they?  Taking a look at the S&P ($SPX) (posted below), I’m seeing that today we were one penny shy of the high from 6/18.  What happened after that?  Two rather colossal down days.  I’m not predicting that happens, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we had a little down day that tests the bottom trend line and perhaps even the 50 SMA.  One big difference between now and then is that MACD had not crossed whereas now it has crossed and looks strong.  Looking at the $SPY, we broke above that bottom trend line, but I would like to see some stronger volume coming into play.  Lastly, looking at the $DOW, we have not cracked the overhead resistance line that started forming with the wick on 5/21.  I would like to see a break above this line.  Overall, I am bullish on this market…. for now.SPX_JULY_9_2013

REAL ACCOUNT ACTIVITY:

I had no picks from yesterday, so I’m moving straight into the real account activity.  I have to be honest, I am getting incredibly discouraged.  A few more abysmal days and I may begin paper trading until I see some more consistent results.  My account is down 50% from when I first start in early 2012.  Granted I didn’t know what I was doing that, but even with the knowledge and technical experience I have gained, I am still down about 20% since March.  Part of this is due to bad technical analysis (see the $LULU and $POT trades).  Others due to stupid mistakes (see $VZ) trade, but overall I feel like I am psyching myself out because of the losses I have incurred.  I am not taking profits when I should because I am trying to let the stocks run and I am incurring losses that are too large on the losing side.  All this compounds into big down days.  Now, I am playing with options which may also be part of the cause, but I just do not have the money to be buying 100 shares of various stocks and then trying to write covered calls etc.  Again, I think I may move over to paper trading for a little while until I start becoming more successful.  The last thing I want to do is blow up my account.    Anyway, here is the review:

$AAPL:  CLOSED (-11%).  I was up 15% at one point early this morning, but due to being at work I was unable to move my stop down and maintain my profit.  I also had the through of “letting the trade breath” but my stop was hit and the rest was history.  Very disappointed I wasn’t able to take profits when I wanted.

$AAPL:  OPEN/CLOSED (+2%).  I entered in long once AAPL was above $3 on the day.  I made a measly gain that I closed out at around $419.  I was spooked by the earlier trade, but had I waited I would have just about pared my loss.

$LNKD: HOLDING (-2%).  From up 11% to down 2%.  I’m not exactly expecting a rebound tomorrow.  Looking at the past 6 months, a down day is almost always followed by another down day.  I will probably get stopped out.

$AXP:  HOLDING (+24%).  This trade looks good percentage-wise (and it is).  But compared to the AAPL and LULU loss, it is a small gain.  I am moving my stop up to lock-in gains.

$UA:  HOLDING (+3%).  I’m not overly confident with this trade any more.  I’ve moved my stop up to avoid any significant loss.

I truly feel like I am very close to doing well in this thing called trading, but I need to figure out better risk management especially when trading options.  I certainly do not want to give up, but paper trading may be the only way to salvage my account while I find my groove.

Market Review for Monday July 8, 2013

Good evening all!  I want to apologize for not posting on Friday and Sunday.  I was on vacation and unable to post.  Then, due to flight delays, I was unable to post on Sunday.  At any rate, I am back in business, so let’s get started.

Today was yet another doji, but we closed above the 50 MA again.  Volume was bland but oscillators and indicators support the bullish trend.  Ideally, I would really like to get above the bottom bullish trend line as well as resistance at 166.01.  For now, I am bullish on the market unless something proves otherwise.  SPY_JULY_9_2013

REVIEW OF PREVIOUS PICKS/REAL ACCOUNT:

$UA:  HOLDING (+3%)  This stock still looks bullish.  I like a target of 64.20.  I have my stop at 60.40. 

$MCD:  Never got triggered.  I still like this one bullish on a close above 100.90 with a target of 102.75

$XONE:  No trigger.  I still think this stock is way over extended and due for a big pullback.

$LULU:  CLOSED (-20%) This one was a technical mistake.  I should have used the wick from 6/12 and for some reason I ignored it.  Entering on a close below that wick would have been appropriate.  Unfortunately, that wick provided support at the stock bounced.  I like a bullish entry on a close above 66.85.

$AXP:  HOLDING (+10%)  I think this stock is strong, but I was not crazy about today’s close.  I may buy protective puts depending on the price action tomorrow.  For now my target is at 78.00 and my stop is at 75.00

$LNKD:  HOLDING (+11%) I think this stock is very strong.  I have my stop at 187.  I’m looking at targets of 194.60 and 200.00.

$TLT:  Would have been a nice trade on Friday, but today it rebounded.  You would have hit your target on Wednesday or Friday.

$AAPL:  HOLDING (-2%)  I am short AAPL back down to $400 with a stop at 417.

I am not going to be able to post picks for tomorrow due to time constraints, but I hope to be back in the swing of things tomorrow.  I think we will have another bullish day tomorrow.  I’m hoping AAPL continues its newly downward trend.  Good night all, and good luck!

Market Review June 26, 2013

Let me start by saying I got beat down in my personal account today.  It’s very frustrating, but I have no one to blame but myself.  I will get into more detail below but for now, let’s look at the market for today.  The market acted as I was expecting.  Low volume bullish day.  I think we go bullish one more day for the 50SMA.  If we break it, the bulls will be in control.  If we fail (which I think is more likely), the bearish trend will be back on.  I think we are in a bearish flag right now.  Stochs are down, MACD is a long ways from crossing upwards and volume has been declining since this little bounce.  We did, however, close above resistance of 159.69 giving slight credibility to the upward move.SPY_JUNE_26_2013

REVIEW OF YESTERDAY’S PICKS:

$FSLR:  Unfortunately you would have gotten triggered in at the top and lost, like me.

$BIDU:  You never would have gotten triggered.

$AWAY:  I’m not sure how this trade would have turned out for you.  But for me, it turned out horribly.  I did not get triggered in right at the open (I’m not sure why since my order was in before the market opened) but a few seconds later after the price spiked.

$AAPL:  You would have gotten triggered in.

REAL ACCOUNT ACTIVITY:

Enjoy the sea of red.  I think my problem right now is over-trading and not “cherry picking” my trades.

$FSLR:  OPENED (-7%) I waited and got burned.  This one did not move like I expected.  Stop is at 44.17.  Still target of 47.35.

$DECK:  CLOSED (-20%) Not much to say.  Bad trade.  I should have had my stop tighter.  I was hoping for this one to go down.  Terrible trade mentality.

$UA:  CLOSED (-33%)  See $DECK explanation.

$AWAY:  OPENED/CLOSED (-13%)  As I mentioned above, I got triggered into this trade much later than I was expecting which put me at a very unexpected deficit.  As a result, I had to move my stop up to mitigate my loss causing me to get stopped out.

$AAPL OPENED (-2%)  I bought a put right at 3:45 on the low only to see the stock float up a bit before the close.  Ultimately we did not close below my target which is worrisome.  In addition, AAPL is incredibly undersold.  We have only been lower one other time in the last 6 years.  That being said, I still like an intra-day tag down to 388.  I think tomorrow is the last shot before some sort of bounce/bear flag.

I’ll be doing some picks, but only 4.  I need to figure out what is causing me to do so horribly these last 3 days and rectify the situation.

Stock Picks for Wednesday, June 26 2013: $FSLR, $BIDU, $AWAY, $AAPL

Hi all.  Short update tonight due to the current market indecision we are facing.

$FSLR:  We had a nice rebound after testing resistance at 40.88.  I believe there is a lot of upside to this stock with a target of 47.35 (50 SMA).  Enter after the first 15min, put your stop below the low of the first 15min candle.

FSLR_JUNE_26_2013

 

$BIDU:  I still like this one short from yesterday.  We had a light volume doji today where we tested the 100SMA.  I like this one after 15min confirmation.  Target is 84.15.BIDU_JUNE_26_2013

$AWAY:  A very nice strong, proud breakout on good volume from the symmetrical triangle.  Thanks to @innov8v for pointing out this trade!  This is a market opening entry.  My stop will be below the first 15min candle once it forms.AWAY_JUNE_26_2013

$AAPL:  Lastly, I have been calling for this one and I have been ignoring my own voice.  If we had gotten in on a close below 416, we had two days to take profits.  Well, I think there is opportunity for more bearish moving.  A close below 397.75 and we should be heading towards 388.  AAPL_JUNE_26_2013

I think I may be over-trading and trying to force trades so I’m going to stick with these four for tonight.  Good luck everyone!

 

Market Overview June 24, 2013

Good afternoon everyone!  Well today was yet another bearish day.  It probably would have been worse had we not gotten a statement from the FED.  As such, that is sure to make the rest of the week very interesting.  Were these the words that will lead to a bullish reversal or was it just one afternoon of light buying to make today’s sell-off not seem as bad.  Volume was still pretty steady today as it has been over the last two sessions with some strong selling in the last 5min.  It will be interesting to see if that selling continues tomorrow or if we start to reverse.  Note that RSI still has some room to move lower as to Stochs and MACD.SPY_JUNE_24_2013

REVIEW OF YESTERDAY’S PICKS:

$AAPL:  Great 15min entry.  At the day’s low you would have been up $6.00.  At the close you would be up about $2.00

$WFC:  No entry

$DIS:  No Entry

$TWC:  No Entry

$DECK:  You would be about even on close and up a few points at the day’s bottom.  Not a great day trade.

$GS:  You would be down unless you sold at today’s lows.  Here is a note; if a stock opens up down and then has a long bearish candle and you are near your target, it is not a good idea to execute a trade.  The 15min rule assumes that you still have a good R/R ratio.

$VMW: You would have gotten triggered in at the end of the day.

$GPS: No trigger

$FSLR:  Looks like it may have found a bottom.  Keep watching!

$IBM:  Same as GS.

$VLO:  This would have been an excellent day trade.  You would have been up almost $1.00 or if you held through close you would still be up $0.50.

REAL ACCOUNT ACTIVITY:

$DECK  OPENED (-5%)  I still like the looks of this trade short (unless the market reverses.  I do not see resistance until 44.80 or so.  However, I did notice after the fact that this stock has been trading with less volume than I would like.  As a result, I am going to tighten my stop a bit above today’s high at 48.65.  I’m hoping this trade will not go against me, but it teaches me a lesson to keep a close eye on the amount of volume.

$UA:  OPENED (-13%)  This trade did not do well for me today.  I was expecting the selloff to continue but the FED came in and the market moved up.  Such is life.  My stop is at 57.40, but if the markets look strong I may tighten even further and lick my wounds.  My target to get out (hopefully on an intraday tag) is 55.05.  I have no good reason for not taking the AAPL trade other than fear and emotion.  My analysis was correct and that is the chart I spent more time on.  I should have stuck with my analysis.

Picks for tomorrow will be up soon.  Thanks for reading!

Picks for June 24, 2013: $AAPL, $WFC, $DIS, $TWC and more!

I’m going to be very quick here.  Sorry for the brief posts tonight:

$AAPL:  15min bearish entry.  First target is 400

AAPL_JUNE_24_2013

 

$WFC:  Bullish entry on close over 41.73  Thanks to Michael Zoitas @Yobronomics (http://yobronomics.com/) for pointing this trade out.

WFC_JUNE_24_2013

 

$DIS Short on a close below 61.78.

DIS_JUNE_24_2013

 

$TWC:  Looks like a bullish flag is forming.  Watch for a breakout:TWC_JUNE_24_2013

Some other potential plays:

$DECK 15min bearish

$GS 15min bearish

$VMW bearish on a close below 66.42

$GPS ascending triangle.  Enter on a close above 42.37

$FSLR watch for a bullish reversal

$IBM 15min bearish potential

$VLO 15min bearish with a target of 34.00

Goodnight, all!  I hope to have a more detailed update tomorrow.