Market Review June 25, 2013

Today’s action showed a rebound from yesterday’s doji candle.  Despite closing below the 100 SMA yesterday, we closed back above it today despite weak volume.  I believe a close above today’s wick means we will fight against the 50 SMA.  Above that and we could be out of this short term bearish trend.  That being said, we could always be forming some sort of bearish flag/pennant pattern on declining volume that will ultimately take us lower.  Notice that intersecting trend line I drew (yesterday’s candle broke it briefly.  I’m not sure how “real” that line is, but it is interesting for a different perspective.  Personally, I believe tomorrow will be a moderately bullish day but on even lower volume.  But hey, nothing says we can’t trade down to Monday’s lows.



$BIDU:  We did not open down so you would not have taken this trade.  If you did take the trade, you would have needed to recognize the double bottom that formed between 10:30 and 11:00.  Otherwise this trade would not have been profitable… yet.  I still believe BIDU is heading south.

$JNJ:  If you took this trade, you would have made a few pennies on it.  I believe JNJ is a strong stock that is going higher.

$CAT:  We did not open down, so you would not have take this trade.

$VLO:  You would not have been triggered in.

$AEO: You would not have been triggered in.

$AXP: You would not have been triggered in.

$FCX:  We did not open down.  No trade.

$TWC: No break out.  I’m surprised we were down on a bullish market day.  Does not speak well for a breakout.  Volume was moderately strong as well.

$GS:  You would not have been triggered in; we did not open down.

$T:  You would not have been triggered in.

$FSLR:  This would have been a good trade to jump into at the open.

I’ll be honest, I was expecting a bullish day, and the market definitely tricked me.  That being said, it’s important to maintain your stops so you don’t get caught with your proverbial pants down like I just did as you will see below…


$DECK HOLDING (-15%):  We bounced and I was not expecting it.  Stubbornly I held.  My stop is at 48.75.  I’d like to see a down day tomorrow, but I think I will have to take my medicine and my stop will be hit.  These types of losses are not good for my account.  I need to learn to minimize them better.

$UA HOLDING (-24%):  This is even worse of a play than DECK.  This is just stubborn emotional trading.  I could have minimized my risk and lived to see another day.  Now I am hoping for a down day to recoup some losses.  Not a smart way to trade, and I know it.  My stop is at 58.07.  Again, I can’t afford to be taking these types of losses.  I either need to hedge or cut out sooner.

I’m hoping for a more cheerful day tomorrow.  Stay tuned for my picks for tomorrow.


Stock Picks for June 25, 2013: $BIDU, $JNJ, $CAT, $VLO

Tomorrow is a new day.  Only account gains tomorrow! 🙂

I’ll provide one long play, but the rest of my plays are still short.  Personally, I think tomorrow is going to be a mixed bag for stocks.  That being said, let’s see if the market cooperates:

$BIDU:  This guy looks ripe for the shorting regardless of what the market is doing.  Overall we are in a major downtrend, price just got below all of the MAs, oscillators support and volume, while not huge, supports the bearish move.  This is a 15min entry for me tomorrow.  84.15 is my target:BIDU_JUNE_25_2013

$JNJ:  Here is the bullish trade.  JNJ is a strong stock, not overly affected by this recent downward move.  In addition, it actually had an up day today while mostly everything else was down.  It would be nice to see the market support the move, but we definitely need a close above today’s wick and the 50MA.  For an aggressive play, get in on a close above 85.35 or more conservatively on a close above 86.54.JNJ_JUNE_25_2013

$CAT:  I have been waiting for a close below support for a while on this one and it finally happened today.  I missed getting in, but this ought to be a good 15min rule entry.  We are in a medium term downtrend and I think it can continue to at least a target of 80.10.CAT_JUNE_25_2013

$VLO:  Lastly we have VLO which was good to me on Friday.  I probably should have held onto it, but hindsight is 20/20.  Looking at it now, if we break below 33.20, I don’t see much support until 29.60.  Looking for that close to take advantage of this trade:VLO_JUNE_25_2013

Some other ideas for tomorrow:

$AEO 15min bear.  Target of 17.00

$AXP 15min bear.  Target of 70.45

$FCX 15min bear.  Target of 25.87

$TWC:  Keep watching for a breakout out of this bullish flag.

$GS: 15min bear.  Target of 147.72

$T:  Bearish with a close below 34.70.  Target of 33.63.

$FSLR:  Pure speculation play.  Obama will be talking about renewable energy in a positive light so this may be a good long play.

Goodnight all, and good luck!

Look Out Below! Market Review of June 20, 2013

As we know, the Fed spoke yesterday and spooked the markets.  Well, today was just a continuation of that spooking.  Down we went loosing more than 350 points on the day.  Unreal!  Hopefully you guys had some short positions to take advantage of today’s action.  Unfortunately for me, I was not as lucky as I would have liked to have been, but I’ll get to that later.

Let’s take a look at where the SPY ended up today.  We are well below the triangle that was forming for the last month or so.  In addition, oscillators are turning back over bearish and ADX just ticked upward, indicating that it’s starting to like this new bearish move.  All that being said, we could always fail the bearish move and bounce tomorrow (although I wouldn’t bet on it).  Lastly, volume was large today, also helping confirm the bearish move.  Personally, I think we wait for 15min confirmation tomorrow for the continued bearish move and then start to get into some short positions.  The next point of resistance is the 100 SMA which is about 2 points away from where we currently sit.  This gives us some good opportunity to make some trades before a decision is made on continuing lower or bouncing from there.



SLV: We missed the majority of the move, unfortunately, but we could have still gotten some profits for about a 0.20 move.

NFLX:  No trigger

TGT:  No trigger

BBY:  No Trigger (just barely)

DDD: If you get triggered in, you made about 0.61 cents

AEO: wasn’t worth getting in.

HD: you would have been triggered in and made about 0.85 cents.

JPM:  you would have been triggered in and made about 12 cents.  Not worth this one.

HES: You would have been triggered in at the end of the day.

LULU: No trade

AEP: You would have been triggered in and made about 0.54 cents.

Overall, following this predictions would have worked out rather well.


$JPM:  HOLDING (Down 32%) Let’s start with the pain.  As mentioned yesterday, I got into this trade very foolishly.  Well I’ve probably held on foolishly as well hoping it would go up.  I put my stop below the wick from 6/6.  My stop is at 52.20.  I fully expect to get stopped out tomorrow for a painful loss and lesson learned.  Not much else to say about this speculation/gamble trade.

$FCX:  CLOSED (UP 26%)  Finally, this trade pays off, and handsomely!  I was holding more contracts than the JPM trade so my account ended up closing in the green today.  If I had never taken the JPM trade, I’d be sitting pretty, but such is life.  

Stay tuned for entries and predictions for tomorrow!


Stock Picks for June 20, 2013: $SLV, $NFLX, $TGT, $BBY

Evening, all!  Hope you didn’t get whipsawed today and made some good gains.  Let’s get started for tomorrow.

$SLV:  My oh my, I have been waiting for this close and I wish I was already into the trade. I’m going to have to wait until tomorrow, but now that I am waiting, I’ll wait for a 15min confirmation.  We close below support and the next target is 19.72.  Oscillators are a bit quiet on this one, but I still like the trade bearish.


$NFLX  Today was probably the day to get in long, but I don’t think the move has been missed by any means.  This will be a 15min bullish entry tomorrow with a target of 246.50.  Oscillators are turning up and supporting the move.  There isn’t much not to like about this trade other than potential “moodiness” in the overall market.


$TGT: I like this one short on the first 15min.  I think we have broken support and oscillators are supporting the move.  Volume was a little low, but not completely horrible.  Target is 67.53.TGT_JUNE_20_2013

$BBY  This one is interesting.  We are either at a triple top or consolidating to bust out and continue the bullish trend.  Personally, I’d like to see a strong bullish move upward to keep the trend going.  My long entry is 28.30.  That being said, the stock could be exhausted in which case my short entry would be on a close below 24.89.


Here are some other quick look trades:

AEO 15min bearish

BIDU bullish on a close over 96.36

DDD 15min bearish (day trade)

HD 15min bearish (day trade)

JPM 15min bearish (day trade)

HES entry on close under 65.65

LULU bullish on close above 65.80

AEP 15min bearish; target is 43.80

Good luck and have a good night!


Market Review for June 19, 2013

So Uncle Ben speaks today and the market nose dives.  Is this going to be a new trend?  Well to be honest, I have no idea where we go from here, but I’d like to think we’ll have a direction chosen by the end of the week.  I thought we would have been green this morning, but stocks started out rather flat and the DOW was down around 30 points prior to the Fed speaking.  That being said, I wasn’t surprised at how the market reacted after the meeting.  Unfortunately, I had some sort of lapse of judgement and got into a horrible position that I will discuss later on, but first, let’s look at SPY.

We are back into that triangle, but we do have support on the lower trend line which we could hit tomorrow or Friday.  In addition, we have both the 50 EMA and SMA to contend with that just happen to be sitting at that lower trend line.  As a result, I think the rest of the week will be down and that is where we bounce to go higher.  However, if we break through, well then the bearish move will still be on:



$JNJ:  CLOSED -6%  I knew that I needed to move my stop up to prevent any damaging losses and I’m very happy that I did.  I was around even at one point today, so I trailed my stop up.  I’m very thankful I had the foresight to do so.  After I was stopped out, the stock plunged down over a dollar.  I only wish that I had bought puts, but it wasn’t part of my plan so I did not do it.  Not a bad loss (I only had 2 contracts), but it could have been a better trade.

$FCX:  HOLDING  I am finally up 3% on this miserable trade.  My target is still 29.00 and I am holding true to that.  I will probably be up around 10% after commission if my target is reached.  I am happy that I have stuck through this trade.  

$JPM: ENTERED at 54.20.  I am furious with myself over this trade.  I got into this on pure speculation.  It was emotional, a gamble and not part of my trading plan.  For some reason, I had a feeling that financials were going to benefit from the Fed talk, so I bought 2 JPM contracts on a whim.  Stupid horrible idea.  I am down about 15% on the trade so far. Seeing as I believe the market is going to continue down and my contracts expire in August, I MAY hold my calls and I MAY play puts tomorrow assuming that the market and stock move that way.  I do see the 20 EMA as providing support for this stock, so I need to be careful.  I don’t want to get burned doubly.  I will have to wait and see how the market is going to open tomorrow.  I’d like to salvage this trade, but it may be wiser to just close my position and take advantage at a different and better time.  Simply awful.  To be honest, this one angers me more than the $VZ trade.  The $VZ trade was a pure accident, this was just buffoonery and greed.  


$FSLR:  Would have been a nice day trade short, but since I was playing closes, you would have gotten triggered in on the aggressive position but not the conservative one. 

$AEO:  You would have gotten triggered.  Would need to wait until tomorrow to see how that pans out.

$AAPL:  While you would have gotten triggered, I would not have take this one since it is getting very close to the next support line of 416.

$SLV:  Triggered.  I was so distracted by that JPM trade I totally missed this one.  Very disappointing!  I’m going to have to turn this into a “first 15min” trade tomorrow.

Nothing else looks like it would have triggered.

Stock picks up soon!



Picks for tomorrow, June 19, 2013: $DDD, $DIS, $FSLR, $HD

Well as I mentioned yesterday, I don’t plan on taking any addition positions until after the Fed speaks, so that we get some sort of idea of a direction.  With that in mind, all entries will be in the last 15min of the trading day tomorrow.  Let’s get started:

$DDD:  The entry I like is a close above 48.90.  The trend is looking bullish and despite the down day today, I believe the trend is still in tact.  However, as I’ve been saying about a lot of stocks lately, I’d like to see volume increase with a bullish move.DDD_JUNE_19_2013


$DIS:  This is a trade I would have gotten into at the end of today had it not been for the FED tomorrow.  That being said, as lon gas we don’t get a huge move up, I would enter long given that we close above today’s high.DIS_JUNE_19_2013

$FSLR:  This one is interesting.  It is in some sort of pennant/flag pattern as volume has declined steadily for the duration of the pattern.  I believe this is a bearish pattern, but time will tell.  Therefore, I have a number of entries.  Conservatively on the bearish side, I like an entry with a close of 44.30.  A more aggressive bearish entry is a close below 45.50.  On the bullish side, I like an entry of 46.80.  Again, these are all end of day closes in order to make an entry, but I would expect a breakout in either direction tomorrow.FSLR_JUNE_19_2013

$HD.  Well I got burned on this stock last week, but I think it has the signs of turning bullish.  I like entering this one on a close above 75.55.HD_JUNE_19_2013

Here are some other trades I’m looking at:

$AEO:  Same entry as yesterday

$AAPL: Same entry as yesterday

$COST:  Same as yesterday

$HAL:  Get in on close above today’s high.

$XOM:  Watch for a bullish entry

$JCP:  Same entry as yesterday

$LOW:  Entry of 41.88

$PHM: Same entry as yesterday

$SLV:  Close below 20.72

$UA:  Watch the bracket trade

$WMT:  Entry with a close above 76.25.

Keep a very close eye on these two; WLT is close to it’s all time lows.  It is in some sort of downward triangle that may breakout soon.  In addition, it just formed a morning star reversal pattern on huge volume.  If it breaks out of that triangle, it may be worth writing some puts and/or buying some calls.

Next is BBRY which is in a long term symmetrical triangle.  Watch for a breakout!


That about wraps it up.  I will be cautious tomorrow.  I’d like to see a bullish trend resume as there are a lot of great setups forming, but we’ll see what happens tomorrow.  Good luck, all!



Market Overview from June 18, 2013 with a Look Ahead to Tomorrow

The market had another bullish today, but on horrifically low volume.  What does this mean?  Well I am certainly not a market expert, but I would suggest that all the “smart” and  “big” money that will move the market is on the sidelines until the Fed speaks tomorrow.  Even then, I don’t expect roaring volume, but I would definitely expect a pop higher than the recent anemic volume action.  Anyway, I’m getting slightly ahead of myself.

Today we break out of a triangle (yay!) that’s been forming for the past month or so.  We closed above my target entry, but I did not take any market close trades today.  As mentioned before, we closed on weak volume despite the break out.  However, oscillators did support the bullish move.  There isn’t a whole lot else to say so here is my chart:


I’m going to talk about my real account and yesterday’s picks before I talk about my predictions for tomorrow, so here we go:


$VZ:  CLOSED 5% LOSS  Well hooray for me.  VZ recovered from it’s down day yesterday with a nice bullish candle.  Volume was okay, and we closed above the 50SMA, but we fell short of closing above yesterday’s high.  I really wanted to stay in this trade, but given how I shouldn’t have been in it at all, I cut my loss (5%) loss which really helped my account.  If we didn’t have the FED talking tomorrow, I may have just closed out 3 options and held on to two, but I didn’t want to gamble.  The loss is disappointing, but not nearly as bad as what it was (25%) or what it could have been.

$JNJ:  ENTERED I think this is a strong overall stock and I took a bullish entry once we closed above today’s 15min candle.  I’m currently up a whopping 1%.  There’s not much to say about this one other than the fact that I believe it is still bullish and I plan on taking a small profit prior to the FED speaking tomorrow (I just gave away my prediction for tomorrow!).  Either way, my stop will be tight and I don’t plan to hold through the FED announcement.

$FCX:  STILL IN This bugger of a stock is still not cooporating with me although I am getting closer and closer to my target.  I will end up eeking out about a 5% profit which really has not been worth the headache.  However, I’d rather have a 5% profit than any sort of loss.  My position is small, so I plan on tightening my gap and holding until either it or my target is reached.  I will hold through the FED announcement.


Today would have been an excellent day for people listening to my 15min advice:

$JNJ was a 15min entry.  You’d be up 1%.  Nothing special

$AMZN:  In at 280.31.  Closed at 281.74.  Max: 282.90  Nice profit

$DDD:  You never would have gotten triggered in.  Good trade to avoid today.

$PHM: We did not close above our entry.  Would not have been triggered.

$AAPL:  We did not closed below our entry.  No trade.

$AEO:  We did not closed below our entry.  No trade.

$DIS:  You would have gotten triggered in at the end of the day.  I would sell tomorrow on a pop.

$HAL:  You would have gotten triggered in at the end of the day.  I would sell tomorrow on a pop.

$JCP:  We did not closed below our entry.  No trade.

$NFLX:  We would not have gotten triggered.  No trade.  Good one to avoid today.

$SNDK: We would have entered at 61.79.  Closed at 63.05.  High: 63.26.  Nice profit!

$Z:  We would have gotten in at 56.11.  Closed at 56.73.  High: 57.50.  Could have been a nice profit or an okay one depending on if you let the trade run or cut near the peak.  As mentioned, though, this one is risky since it is a low volume stock.

$TGT:  Entry at 69.97.  Closed at 70.16.  This wouldn’t have been a good day trade.  Perhaps we will be up tomorrow morning.

$TSLA:  Entry at 102.50 with a close of 103.42 and a high of 103.98.  Not a bad trade!

$COST:  We did not close above my entry.

That was 15 stock picks.  5 trades were profitable, with 1 being neutral.  2 trades you would have gotten triggered into and will have to wait to see until tomorrow on how they shape up.  7 trade set-ups allowed you to avoid negative trades.  Not a bad day at all!


As I alluded to before, I believe the bullish trend is going to continue tomorrow on low volume.  I don’t think it will be huge volume, but i think we will be up 25 to 30 points in the morning and maybe drift up to 50 or 70 by the time the Fed talks.  At that point, it’s anyone’s guess, but I would assume that we will give up those gains and may even turn red for the day after the Fed talks, but that’s not even a gut feeling.  I honestly have no idea what’s going to happen, that is my modest and very shaky prediction.  My plan is to take profits on trades prior to the Fed speaking then only enter end of day trades if they meet my entry criteria.

Happy Trading and best of luck.  Please feel free to post any questions or comments!


Picks for Tomorrow June 18, 2013: $JNJ, $AMZN, $DDD, $PHM

Let’s see if I can have a better day tomorrow than today!

$JNJ.  Looks to me like it just broke out of a triangle.  Oscillators are turning up and RSI is supporting the move.  I think this one is a 15min confirmation entry tomorrow bullishly.  I like this trade if it cooperates.  It has a nice RtR.



$AMZN:  Here’s another 15min entry play.  I like this one almost as much as JNJ.  Unfortunately, it does not have as good of a RtR, but it still looks like a nice play.  First target is 282.40 and the second target is at 284. My stop is at 273.  I’d really like to see some stronger volume on this one, though.



$DDD:  This trade looks good to me.  It just broke out of a triangle and although volume wasn’t excellent, it wasn’t all that bad.  MACD is about to turn, Stochs support the move and RSI is turning up.  If after 15min we get confirmation, I would take this trade bullishly.



$PHM:  I like this one long with a close above 21.98.  See chart below for details.  I haven’t chosen a stop yet but my target is 24.40.  Oscillators are supporting the trade.



Here are some additional stocks that may be of interest:

$AAPL  I still like it bearish on a close below 428.

$AEO: I also like bearish on a close below 18.92.

$DIS I still like the bullish trade on a close over 65.15

$HAL I like bullishly on a close over 44.00  This is 0.30 cents higher than yesterday due to today’s wick.

$JCP I still like bearish on a close below 17.11

$NFLX Looks nice for a bullish run.  15min entry on this one.

$SNDK:  just broke out of a triangle/wedge to all-time highs.  15min bullish on this one.

$Z:  Bullish after the first 15min.  Be wary of the low volume on this one.  Not sure if I would take this trade myself.

$TGT:  Looks good for a 15min bullish entry as does:

$TSLA:  I like this one with a confirming 15min entry.

Lastly, $COST I still like on a close above 112.55.  This is increased from yesterday due to today’s wick.

Good luck all.  If you have any questions, feel free to ask!




Picks for June 17, 2013: $VZ, $AAPL, $DD, $DIS, $FSLR, $HAL, $JCP, $UA

Here we are on the eve of a market on the verge of a breakout (we hope) in either direction.  The hope is that a trend forms so that we can choose a direction.  Let’s see what’s in the works for Monday:

$VZ:  This on looks like it’s on the verge or just beginning a bullish move.  I like a 15min entry on Monday as long as the price movement supports the bullish move.  My targets are  52.37 and 53.58.  Stop is at 50.14.  This is about a 3:1 move at the ultimate target.  Oscillators support the move, but volume has been declining.  Hopefully we get some strong volume tomorrow.


$AAPL:  This one looks good bearishly on a close below 428.  The first target would be 416.63; ultimately we could get back to $383.00.  I would not take this bearish trade unless we close strongly below 428 with supporting volume.  Fortunately, oscillators are supporting the bearish move.  Let’s see what Monday brings:


$DD:  This one is a good candidate for a 15min short.  We close well below my entry point of 53.38 on strong volume.  Oscillators are supporting the bearish move.  I think we are good to go down to 51.60 and then 50.90.  Where you place your stop is where you will determine your Risk to Reward (RtR).  As for me, I would put my stop above the 50 EMA.  This gives us a RtR of only 1:1 which is unfortunate.  Based on this, I would probably not take the trade, but if you are a day trader, you may be interested in this one.


$DIS:  I really like this bracketed trade.  Bullishly, I’d want a close above 65.15.  Bearishly, I’d like a close below 61.98.  Personally, I’d rather see a bullish breakout since it is the path of least resistance.  Notice that volume has been decreasing, which I think will (or should) foreshadow a breakout with solid volume.  Lastly, oscillators are moving bullish, hopefully supporting a bullish breakout.


$FSLR:  While I’d be a little careful of a reversal, I think everything is confirming a bearish trend here.  I like a bounce off of 40.90.  Enter this one after the first 15min if price confirms the direction.  Put your stop at least 46.50.


$HAL:  I like an entry on a close above 43.70.  Oscillators are starting to turn upward, but I’d like to see a close over that price level on strong volume to confirm the trend.  Let’s see what happens if/when we get that close.


$JCP:  We are approaching a level that I’ve been eyeing for a few weeks now.  If we get a close below 17.11, I am taking this trade bearish down to a target of 15.90.  Oscillators are supporting the move, but I would like to see volume support the move down.  I’m definitely keeping an eye on this one.


$UA:  Here is another bracketed trade set-up.  We could be finding support for a bullish reversal, or we may break that support and head low.  Bullishly, I like a close above 60.96 and bearishly I like a close below 58.40.


Although not posted, keep an eye on the following:

COST: Neutral, but close to choosing a direction.

VALE: Short

AEO:  Short

NKE: breakout from triangle

That about wraps up my picks for tomorrow.  I hope you guys have good luck if you choose to entertain any of these choices.  Just ensure you do your own due diligence before taking any real money trades.  Good night!


Picks for JUNE 13, 2013: $LULU, $TXN, $AEO, $JCP

Here we on the eve of a potentially trend defining day.  Let’s see what we can plan for!

$LULU:  So a lot of people are thinking this stock is oversold and it’s going to bounce.  Well, I don’t disagree that it’s oversold and I don’t disagree it will bounce, but I do think that it has some more downside, and that’s what I’m hoping to catch tomorrow.  My plan is for a 15min entry with a target of 61.52.  My stop will be very tight, so I may get stopped out quick.  I will place it just above the day’s open in case the stock does pop.  I think this has good potential of earning some money tomorrow.


$TXN:  This one just broke out of some sort of wedge formation.  I like this one short after the first 15min with targets seen in the chart below.  I will probably take profits at 34.00 and then re-enter if the trend continues.


$AEO  This one just broke out of a triangle and heading downward.  This is another 15min entry with a target of 18.12.  Oscillators are supporting the move.  Not much else to say, but I like this one short tomorrow.  My stop will be above the resistance level at $19.15.


$JCP:  Last but not least we have JCP.  This stock just broke out of a large triangle, but rather than taking the trade now, I’d like to see a close below 17.11 before entering.  My target is 15.73.  My stop is TBD.JCP_JUNE_13_2013

Good luck everyone, and keep an eye on the overall market!  Goodnight.