1/12

After a pause on the 10th, the market had a powerfully bullish day yesterday on average volume.  I’m looking for more upside today.

Current Positions:

$DIS: 25 shares.  Current Status: +.91%. Plan: sell at Target 1: $113.16.     Disney looks to have bounced off of it’s ascending trend line and is set to run.  Earnings: 6 Feb

$HD: 2 February $195 calls.  Current Status: +6.16%. Plan: Trim 1 call on the way to Target 2: $202.27.   Home Depot had a nice strong day pushing above the stagnancy of the last few days.  This ought to be the start of another leg up.  Earnings:  13 Feb

$IWM: 2 March $157 calls.  Current Status: +52.21%. Plan: Trim 1 call at Target 1: $158.28.  Big breakout today.  Lot’s of room to run.  I like this position.  Earnings:

$WMT: 2 March $100 calls.  Current Status: -8.55%. Plan: Trim 1 call at Target 1: $103.85. Walmart filled the gap and then back tested.  I’ll be watching it rather closes as it needs to show it can break out.  Earnings:  15 Feb

What I’m Watching Today:

$CAT:  This one is a bit risky since it passed it’s first target, but the stock has been so strong, it’s difficult to ignore.  I’m thinking of either buying 1 ITM call or buying a couple of OTM calls with a target of $175.81.CAT

$JNJ:  Johnson & Johnson closed above the “breakout” line yesterday.  I’ll be watching on the 5min chart for a close above the first 5min candle before getting in.  I think this play has some good potential to run.  Target1:  $148.63  Target2:  $154.01.JNJ.png

$MMM:  3M has been a very strong stock in the intermediate term and showed strength yesterday after a weak Wednesday.  I don’t expect to get into this trade today, but I’ll be watching for a close above the “breakout” line of $244.19.MMM.png

$SBUX: Starbucks is back on my radar and is setting up for a breakout.  Again, I’m not crazy about this stock due to over head resistance, but I will keep an eye on it.  Target 1:  $61.13   Target 2:  $62.58SBUX.png

 

 

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1/8/18 – New Year New Approach

It’s been over a year since I wrote on my blog, but one of my new year’s resolutions is to take more time studying stocks and making proper investments and trades.  Today’s blog will look at some stocks that are breaking out, others that are close to breaking out, another in a bullish continuation pattern and finally one risky, but interesting stock.  So here we go:

Breaking Out:

$FB:  $FB has broken out from it’s short term channel and is moving up.  Target 1:  188.34, Target 2:  193.73.  FB

$HD:  I see HD as a little risky as it’s been in a steady upward trend for a while now.  Not to say that it couldn’t continue, but you may want a tight stop if you’re planning on getting in.  Target1:  $193.29  Target2: $202.27.HD

$MA:  $MA had a great day on Friday and cleared through the first target of $158.25.  Since it’s already through the first target, I would consider a small position to see if it can reach target 2:  $163.12  MACD is rather flat and RSI is high as well.  Be careful here.MA

$NFLX:  Target1: $212.36, Target 2: $222.24NFLX

$FLIR:  This is probably my favorite breakout play of the 5 breaking out stocks I’ve identified since it’s been consolidating for the last few weeks.  I would wait for confirmation at the open tomorrow before entering (i.e. when looking at a daily 5min chart, ensure the we get a close ABOVE the close of the first 5min candle.  This isn’t a fool proof method, but it’s rather reliable.  Target 1: $50.67  Target 2: $53.95FLIR

Breakout Potential:

$AAPL:  $AAPL has been consolidating the last few weeks.  If it closes above $176.34, it could reach Target 1: $182.13 and Target 2:  $189.59AAPL

$IGT:  $IGT is an interesting play.  It had a strong day on Friday and while it has not broken out, it has bounced off of the 50% FIB re-tracement and is following an upward trend line.  If you’re comfortable getting in now with a tight stop below the low on Thursday, it could pay off nicely.  Or you could choose to wait until it breaks out and closes above $29.40.  Target 1:  31.30  Target  2: 33.76IGT

$SBUX:  I’m not in love with this trade since there is some resistance above Target 1: ($61.13).  Target 2 would be $62.58 SBUX

Trending:

$DAN: This stock has been in a solid up trend since July 2016 off of it’s low of $9.80.  Target 1: $34.93  Target 2: $36.75.  OR, this could be a stock you want to hold onto.   Also notice that MACD is turning up, Stochs are pointed up, as is RSI.  DAN

Risk and Reward

$VRX:  This is a pharmaceutical stock, which are typically risky by nature, $VRX being no exception.  A few years ago $VRX was ~$260 and fell over time down to $8.31.  It’s currently at $23.85.  I’m not saying it will get back to $260 and while there’s some overhead resistance to watch out for (see chart below), there is some potential for this stock to grow.  Proceed with caution, but keep it in mind.VRX

Picks for Tuesday, July 16: $CAT, $LULU, $FLSR

So today I am just going to take a look at 3 potential plays.  1 brackett, 1 long and 1 15min rule.  So let’s begin!

$CAT:  First off, let me thank #Tradesmartu.com for pointing out this trade.  It looks like we could go in either direction with this stock.  On the bullish side, we need a close above today’s wick as well as a close above the 200 SMA.  Target is 90.60.  Stop is TBD.  On the short side, I like a close below 84.85 and a target of 81.48.  Stop is TBD.CAT_JULY_16_2013

$LULU:  I got burned on this stock a few weeks ago, but it’s looking like a good play is setting up.  There are some long term trend lines, the 200 SMA and recent wicks I’d like to close above.  In addition, there is an ascending triangle forming which I outlined in pink.  I like a close above 66.85 with a target of 70.40.  Stop is TBD.    Notice there is a short trade as well.  That was from a few weeks ago, but it may be valid depending on how LULU behaves.  For now, I am looking at the bullish trade.LULU_JULY_16_2013

$FSLR:  Here is the 15min trade.  It looks like we just had a nice pop on increasing volume. I think FLSR is a strong play with a target of 56.30.  My stop is 48.56.  This trade has an excellent R/R if it plays out as expected.  I think I will leg into this trade with one contract and get a couple more if the trend continues.  FSLR_JULY_16_2013

That about does it.  Best of luck with all your trades.

Market Recap for July 15, 2013

Hi all.  I just want to apologize for missing the last couple of days.  The summer is proving difficult to keep up with work, leisure, family/friends, and stocks.  As a result, the blog is slipping off the plate.  Therefore, I make no promises on how often I update, but I would like to be able to update at least 3 times per week during the summer.  That is my short term goal with my long term goal of updating daily once the summer winds down in a few months.

So.  Today we had another all-time high close but the end of the day saw a slight sell-off.  I think we are due for another turn down, draw down, whatever you want to call, but I think the bears are sniffing around.  That being said, I would not enter short unless tomorrow really does sell-off.

REAL LIFE ACCOUNT:

$DIS:  HOLDING (-15%)  I entered this at the wrong time.  I think my strategy is going to focus more on formations rather than intermediate support and resistance lines.  I want to focus on strong pivot points, trend lines and patterns ready to break out.  That is my new focus when looking at trades.

$HES:  HOLDING (-2%)  See comments on DIS.  I should have gotten in early, but I was worried about an intermediate resistance that probably was something more to be aware of than to place a trade around.  

$DMND:  HOLDING (+11%)  Finally, a good trade!  I am moving my stop up but DMND looks strong to me.  It’s due for a down day or two, but I think overall we are heading to 24.00

$WLT:  HOLDING (+55%)  This is good, but not as good as it looks.  I wrote a $12 put that expires this Friday.  I’d be happy to own this stock and write calls against it if it channels or declines.  Similarly if it rises, I’m happy to write puts as it goes up.

Picks for tomorrow coming soon.

Picks for Thursday July 11, 2013: $DDD, $DIS, $GS, $HES

Here are my picks for tomorrow.  Just a quick note that futures are up quite a bit after hours.  Let’s see if that holds into tomorrow.

$DDD:  I like a long entry on a close above 48.75.  Targets are 50.98 and 51.87.  Stop is TBD.  MACD and Stochs are supporting a bullish move.DDD_JULY_11_2013

$DIS:  Here is a bracket trade; similar to the one posted a few days ago.  I like a long entry of 65.60 with a target of 67.88.  A shot entry of 63.75 with a target of 62.00.  Stop TBD.DIS_JULY_11_2013

$GS:  I like a long entry on a close above 157.60.  Targets are 160.80 and 165.65.  Stop TBD.GS_JULY_11_2013

$HES:  I like a long entry on a close above 69.05 with a target of 72.40.  My stop is TBD.HES_JULY_11_2013

Keep an eye on some stock picks from yesterday:

$DMND

$COST

$CELG

There you are.  Good luck to everyone.

Market Review July 10, 2013

Today was a pretty boring day.  Nothing really happened in the markets even with the FOMC.  SPY closed a few pennies above it’s close from yesterday.  The DOW finished pennies below while the NASDAQ had a rather strong bullish day.  I am still bullish on the markets.  It’s not really worth posting charts today, so I will get into the next segment:

REVIEW OF YESTERDAY’S PICKS:

$BTU:  No Trigger.

$COST:  You’d have been triggered in.  Not much action.

$DECK:  No Trigger

$QCOM:  No Trigger

$CELG:  You would have been triggered in; up a few pennies.

$XONE: You would have been triggered in, but as pointed out, there are no options for this stock, unfortunately.

$DMND:  You would have been triggered in; down a few pennies.

REAL ACCOUNT ACTIVITY:

$UA:  HOLDING (+2%) I still expect a bullish move north.

$LNKD:  HOLDING (-8%)  I’m not sure what to think here, but it seems, at least on the daily chart, that we found a bottom.  I expect we go back to retest 195.

$DMND: OPENED (-14%)  A lot of this loss is due to commission and the bid/ask spread. I expect to rebound in the coming days.

$AXP:  CLOSED (+17%)  I am grateful I was able to get out before the plunge down today.  Wish I had shorted, but such is life.

That’s about it for my open positions.  Picks for tomorrow coming soon.

Picks for Wednesday July 10, 2013: $BTU, $COST, $DECK, $QCOM, $CELG, $XONE, $DMND

I have a quite a list for you all to make up for lost time and because a lot of these look ripe for the taking!  Let’s get started:

$BTU:  I like a close above 16.21 with a target of 18.00.  Oscillators are starting to turn around and I think a break above the 16.21 line will set this stock on a bullish uptrend.  Stop TBD.BTU_JULY_10_2013

$COST:  If you had been watching this, you would have gotten triggered in today.  Sadly, I was not watching.  I think this guy is going higher.  15min bullish entry with a target of 115.39.  Stop is 112.00COST_JULY_10_2013

$DECK:  This stock has been strong ever since I thought to buy puts a few weeks ago.  We just broke out of a long term and short term downward trend line.  I like this stock long with a 15min entry.  Targets are 55.42, 57.19 and 59.97.  Stop is 53.00DECK_JULY_10_2013

$QCOM:  We are in a clear downward channel.  I like an entry on a close below 58.86 or if you want to be aggressive, take a 15min short entry.  Target 1 is 57.36.  T2 is 56.56.  Stop is 60.40.  Careful on this one with the R/R ratio.QCOM_JULY_10_2013

$CELG:  I like this one long.  It looks strong and broke out of a short term downward trend line a few days ago.  This is a 15min entry with targets of 127.60 and 130.  The R/R ratio isn’t the best so watch out for this one as well.  CELG_JULY_10_2013

$XONE:  Pure speculation but this thing is so overly extended I can’t see how it wouldn’t have a pullback.  The only question is when.  Keep a close eye because it has a ways to fall.XONE_JULY_10_2013

$DMND:  This one just broke out from some long term resistance.  I like this one long on a 15min entry with a target of 24.19 followed by 26.38. Stop is 20.95DMND_JULY_10_2013

Best of luck with all of your trades and positions!

Trader Remorse and Market Recap for Tuesday, July 9

The bulls are here to stay!!  Or are they?  Taking a look at the S&P ($SPX) (posted below), I’m seeing that today we were one penny shy of the high from 6/18.  What happened after that?  Two rather colossal down days.  I’m not predicting that happens, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we had a little down day that tests the bottom trend line and perhaps even the 50 SMA.  One big difference between now and then is that MACD had not crossed whereas now it has crossed and looks strong.  Looking at the $SPY, we broke above that bottom trend line, but I would like to see some stronger volume coming into play.  Lastly, looking at the $DOW, we have not cracked the overhead resistance line that started forming with the wick on 5/21.  I would like to see a break above this line.  Overall, I am bullish on this market…. for now.SPX_JULY_9_2013

REAL ACCOUNT ACTIVITY:

I had no picks from yesterday, so I’m moving straight into the real account activity.  I have to be honest, I am getting incredibly discouraged.  A few more abysmal days and I may begin paper trading until I see some more consistent results.  My account is down 50% from when I first start in early 2012.  Granted I didn’t know what I was doing that, but even with the knowledge and technical experience I have gained, I am still down about 20% since March.  Part of this is due to bad technical analysis (see the $LULU and $POT trades).  Others due to stupid mistakes (see $VZ) trade, but overall I feel like I am psyching myself out because of the losses I have incurred.  I am not taking profits when I should because I am trying to let the stocks run and I am incurring losses that are too large on the losing side.  All this compounds into big down days.  Now, I am playing with options which may also be part of the cause, but I just do not have the money to be buying 100 shares of various stocks and then trying to write covered calls etc.  Again, I think I may move over to paper trading for a little while until I start becoming more successful.  The last thing I want to do is blow up my account.    Anyway, here is the review:

$AAPL:  CLOSED (-11%).  I was up 15% at one point early this morning, but due to being at work I was unable to move my stop down and maintain my profit.  I also had the through of “letting the trade breath” but my stop was hit and the rest was history.  Very disappointed I wasn’t able to take profits when I wanted.

$AAPL:  OPEN/CLOSED (+2%).  I entered in long once AAPL was above $3 on the day.  I made a measly gain that I closed out at around $419.  I was spooked by the earlier trade, but had I waited I would have just about pared my loss.

$LNKD: HOLDING (-2%).  From up 11% to down 2%.  I’m not exactly expecting a rebound tomorrow.  Looking at the past 6 months, a down day is almost always followed by another down day.  I will probably get stopped out.

$AXP:  HOLDING (+24%).  This trade looks good percentage-wise (and it is).  But compared to the AAPL and LULU loss, it is a small gain.  I am moving my stop up to lock-in gains.

$UA:  HOLDING (+3%).  I’m not overly confident with this trade any more.  I’ve moved my stop up to avoid any significant loss.

I truly feel like I am very close to doing well in this thing called trading, but I need to figure out better risk management especially when trading options.  I certainly do not want to give up, but paper trading may be the only way to salvage my account while I find my groove.

Market Review for Monday July 8, 2013

Good evening all!  I want to apologize for not posting on Friday and Sunday.  I was on vacation and unable to post.  Then, due to flight delays, I was unable to post on Sunday.  At any rate, I am back in business, so let’s get started.

Today was yet another doji, but we closed above the 50 MA again.  Volume was bland but oscillators and indicators support the bullish trend.  Ideally, I would really like to get above the bottom bullish trend line as well as resistance at 166.01.  For now, I am bullish on the market unless something proves otherwise.  SPY_JULY_9_2013

REVIEW OF PREVIOUS PICKS/REAL ACCOUNT:

$UA:  HOLDING (+3%)  This stock still looks bullish.  I like a target of 64.20.  I have my stop at 60.40. 

$MCD:  Never got triggered.  I still like this one bullish on a close above 100.90 with a target of 102.75

$XONE:  No trigger.  I still think this stock is way over extended and due for a big pullback.

$LULU:  CLOSED (-20%) This one was a technical mistake.  I should have used the wick from 6/12 and for some reason I ignored it.  Entering on a close below that wick would have been appropriate.  Unfortunately, that wick provided support at the stock bounced.  I like a bullish entry on a close above 66.85.

$AXP:  HOLDING (+10%)  I think this stock is strong, but I was not crazy about today’s close.  I may buy protective puts depending on the price action tomorrow.  For now my target is at 78.00 and my stop is at 75.00

$LNKD:  HOLDING (+11%) I think this stock is very strong.  I have my stop at 187.  I’m looking at targets of 194.60 and 200.00.

$TLT:  Would have been a nice trade on Friday, but today it rebounded.  You would have hit your target on Wednesday or Friday.

$AAPL:  HOLDING (-2%)  I am short AAPL back down to $400 with a stop at 417.

I am not going to be able to post picks for tomorrow due to time constraints, but I hope to be back in the swing of things tomorrow.  I think we will have another bullish day tomorrow.  I’m hoping AAPL continues its newly downward trend.  Good night all, and good luck!

Picks for July 5, 2013: $UA, $MCD, $XONE, $LULU, $AXP, $TLT, $GOOG

Happy 4th everyone!  With a half day of trading yesterday, the market has some time to “marinate” and hopefully make an indication of which direction it is going to take.  So let’s begin with some picks:

$UA:  I believe this stock is very strong.  A close above 60.96 looks to be a great long entry point.  However, if you want to be aggressive and believe we are going higher, you can enter on a 15min indication.  Indicators are pointing up, but I would ideally like to see volume increase on the bullish move.  UA_JULY_5_2013

$MCD:  It looks like we are breaking out of a short term bearish channel.  You may want to wait for a close above 100.55 or if you want to be more aggressive, you could take a 15min bullish trade.  Target is 102.75.MCD_JULY_5_2013

$XONE:  It looks like this bubble is bursting.  Notice the speed lines I drew.  The most recent line prior to yesterday’s drop is almost vertical.  I think this has a ways to drop.  My target is $53.45 or the speed line I highlighted.  Moreover, yesterday’s candle was a bullish-engulfing candle.  My stop will go above the first 15min candle.  This is definitely a 15min entry.XONE_JULY_5_2013

 

$LULU:  Bracket trade here:  I think the stronger probability is a bearish trade, but the bulls can still win out.  Bearish I like an entry of 63.80 with target of 61.60 and 59.65.  On the bullish side I like an entry of 66.85 and a target of 70.40.LULU_JULY_5_2013

 

$AXP:  What the heck, I’ll do one more since it’s a holiday.  AXP also looks like a bracket set-up.  Bearish entry is a close below 72.90 with a target of 70.45.  Bullish, I like an entry of 76.30 with a target of 78.20.AXP_JULY_5_2013

A couple of other little bonuses:

$TLT: I still like this short with a target of 107.78.  15min entry.

$GOOG:  I still like our entry of 895. with a target of 920.

Enjoy the rest of your holiday and happy trading!