April 5 Update

Hello all,

I’ve been keeping an eye on the market and it seems as though we are at or very close to a breaking point on a descending triangle.  This is true both of the DOW and the S&P.  Will we bounce or will we push lower?  There’s no answer to that until it actually happens.  Once it does happen, the direction of the market will become more clear and trades with low risk and high reward can be taken.

On a side note, with the addition of $AAPL to the DOW, I believe the S&P is a better indicator of overall market health.  So any time I reference “the market”, I am talking about the S&P unless otherwise specified.

A number of stocks are at key support levels, some are in bollinger band squeezes, and others are in existing down-trends.  Let’s take a look at a couple of stocks exhibiting this behavior:

$JNJ:

As can be seen, $JNJ has been in a down trend in recent months.  It appeared to have formed a double bottom, but it is about to retest that bottom.  $JNJ was in a downward channel, but made a higher high and slightly broke out of the channel which is slightly concerning.  However, if it breaks and closes below $98, I’m looking for a swing trade over the course of a week or two down to $95.  MACD is already looking slightly bearish and a close below $98 should support a short trade.  The other way to play this stock is to go long if it bounces off $98, but that would be a counter trend trade and would require a tight stop.  JNJ$LVS is another stock in a downward trend worth looking at.

$FSLR:

This stock does not necessarily follow the trend of the overall market.  As a matter of fact, it has been in a side-ways pattern for around a month or so and is now in a bollinger-band squeeze.  Whichever way it breaks out of the band is the direction I would take the trade.  However, I would start with a small position due to the possibility of a “head fake”.FSLR$HES is a stock just about to enter into a bollinger band squeeze.

$EXPE

$EXPE is a great example of a stock breaking out.  The only thing I am concerned with is if the market pushes lower, the breakout could fizzle.  A low risk trade would be watching for $EXPE to come back to $96.74 before getting in and keeping a tight stop.  You may miss the move with this approach, so the alternative is to get in at market open understanding that you’ll want a wide stop.EXPE

$EBAY:

$EBAY is and has been in a nice uptrend.  It sits on the ascending trend line and is a good low risk/reward play.  However, this one may also depend on the direction of the market.  MACD is looking bearish so the stock may roll over.  If it does $55.50 is the first target.  $54.00 is the second.  If we get a bounce, $59.70 looks likely as a first target.EBAY$BBY is another stock in a similar up-trend.

That wraps up this update.  Have a great night, hope you had a happy Easter.  Good night and happy trading!

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Market Review from June 21, 2013

Hello everyone.  Hope you all are having a great weekend so far.  Mine has been quite busy, but I’m finally ready to get this update posted, so let’s go!

What a wild day on Friday!  From a green open to a faded gap and then back and forth from there.  We ended up closing in the green, but only by 41 points on the DOW.  Volume  was very strong (even stronger than Thursday) as we kissed the 100 SMA on $SPY and just missed touching it on the DOW.  The candle from yesterday was a doji on both indicies which COULD signify a reversal back bullishly.  However, MACD and Stochs are still bearish so I would not just assume that we are heading back up until we get some sort of confirmation.  Ideally I’d like to see a close above 1600 on the S&P which would give me some moderate confirmation of a bullish reversal.  Time will tell, but there should be plenty of good trade setups on Monday and the rest of the week.  See chart below of $SPY:SPX_JUNE_21_2013

REVIEW OF YESTERDAY’S PICKS:

$DE:  You would have gotten triggered in at 82.89 and could have gotten out at 81.75 for over a dollar move.  If you held for the day, you’d have been up 0.42 cents.  Great trade!

$DIS:  Well it is possible that you could have gotten triggered into this trade, but to me it just didn’t feel right.  I would not have taken this trade.  If you did get in, you would have gotten in at 62.30.  You could have gone up about 0.40 cents if you sold at the day’s low, but realizing we were at the low of the day would have been very difficult, unless you were trailing your stop, then you may have broken even.  If you held for the day you would have lost 0.43 cents.  Not a good trade.

$FDX we did not close below the target so no trade would have been triggered.

$UA:  I wanted to get into this trade, but we were down so big so early, I was a little afraid of it so I stayed out.  Had you gotten in, you would have been triggered at 56.85.  Selling at the low of the day would have given you 0.59 cents.  Holding till the end of the day would have put you down 0.03 cents.  Not a great trade.  You could have made some money if you trailed your stop.

$JPM would not have worked out

$AAPL you would have gotten triggered in.  I did not get in, but I am seriously considering it on Monday with 15min confirmation.

$BIDU you would not have gotten triggered

$CSX you would have gotten triggered in at the end of the day.  I wish I had taken this trade, but I was not at the computer at the end of the day.

$FCX: you would not have been triggered into this trade

$HAL: You would not have been triggered into this trade.

$IBM:  This is another trade I would have liked to have legged into.

$O:  You would have gotten triggered in.  Profits on low of the day, still a small profit if still holding at the end of the day.

$VLO:  Great day trade.  I took this one.  I’ll cover it in the next section

$DVY:  You would have gotten triggered in.  Profit if sold at low of the day, would have lost if held until close.

REAL ACCOUNT ACTIVITY:

$JPM  CLOSED (37% LOSS)  OUCH!  This was a really stupid trade from the beginning since I got in on a whim and then I did not manage my loss.  However, this is a perfect trade to learn from, and believe me, I will learn going forward.

$VLO OPENED+CLOSED (+24% ROI)  I was watching this stock in the AM and was able to get in after I saw the stair step forming between 10:00 and 10:10.  I was able to get out after the tweezer bottom formed.  I am very proud of myself for recognizing when to get in and out of this trade.  One of the best trades I’ve done in my short career.  I’m hopeful for more in the coming days and weeks.  I feel like my analysis is getting stronger, but time will tell!

Picks and observations coming up tomorrow.  Goodnight all and GO BRUINS! 🙂

Picks and Predictions for June 21, 2013: $DE, $DIS, $FDX, $UA

BEAR, SHORT.  Those are two words I will be using quite a bit to describe my picks tonight.  Let’s get started, shall we?

DE:  I like this one as a 15 minute entry, short.  ADX is turning up.  We are below all MAs and oscillators support the move.  Volume wasn’t enormous today, but higher than the past few weeks.  83.62 was my original entry point, so if you are already in, great!  Target is 81.60.DE_June_21_2013

DIS:  We close below my entry by one measly penny today!  If you are not in, then after the first 15min, get in (with confirmation).  My stop would be at 63.74 and the first target is the 100 SMA.  The second target is 57.82.  This trade provides a 2:1 R/R ratio.DIS_JUNE_21_2013

$FDX:  This guy had a big down day today.  Unfortunately he’s sitting right above his 200 SMA.  I would like to see a close below 95.10.  My stop would be above the 200 SMA with my first target at 93.18 and the second target at 92.35.FDX_JUNE_21_2013

UA:  I see huge upside with this trade.  15min entry bearish.  Oscillators support and we are below all of the MAs.  Volume could have been better, but I still like the trade.  Target is 54.71.  Stop is at 59.32.  This is a 3:1 R/R ratio trade.UA_JUNE_21_2013

Here are a couple extra stock to look at:

$JPM 15min short

$AAPL short on a close under 416

$BIDU short on a close below 92.00

$CSX short on a close below 23.75

$FCX short on a close below 27.20

$HAL short on a close below 41.30

$IBM short on a close below 196.00

$O 15min short.

$VLO 15min short

$DVY 15min short.

Happy trading, all!

Look Out Below! Market Review of June 20, 2013

As we know, the Fed spoke yesterday and spooked the markets.  Well, today was just a continuation of that spooking.  Down we went loosing more than 350 points on the day.  Unreal!  Hopefully you guys had some short positions to take advantage of today’s action.  Unfortunately for me, I was not as lucky as I would have liked to have been, but I’ll get to that later.

Let’s take a look at where the SPY ended up today.  We are well below the triangle that was forming for the last month or so.  In addition, oscillators are turning back over bearish and ADX just ticked upward, indicating that it’s starting to like this new bearish move.  All that being said, we could always fail the bearish move and bounce tomorrow (although I wouldn’t bet on it).  Lastly, volume was large today, also helping confirm the bearish move.  Personally, I think we wait for 15min confirmation tomorrow for the continued bearish move and then start to get into some short positions.  The next point of resistance is the 100 SMA which is about 2 points away from where we currently sit.  This gives us some good opportunity to make some trades before a decision is made on continuing lower or bouncing from there.

SPY_JUNE_20_2013

REVIEW OF YESTERDAY’S PICKS

SLV: We missed the majority of the move, unfortunately, but we could have still gotten some profits for about a 0.20 move.

NFLX:  No trigger

TGT:  No trigger

BBY:  No Trigger (just barely)

DDD: If you get triggered in, you made about 0.61 cents

AEO: wasn’t worth getting in.

HD: you would have been triggered in and made about 0.85 cents.

JPM:  you would have been triggered in and made about 12 cents.  Not worth this one.

HES: You would have been triggered in at the end of the day.

LULU: No trade

AEP: You would have been triggered in and made about 0.54 cents.

Overall, following this predictions would have worked out rather well.

REAL ACCOUNT ACTIVITY:

$JPM:  HOLDING (Down 32%) Let’s start with the pain.  As mentioned yesterday, I got into this trade very foolishly.  Well I’ve probably held on foolishly as well hoping it would go up.  I put my stop below the wick from 6/6.  My stop is at 52.20.  I fully expect to get stopped out tomorrow for a painful loss and lesson learned.  Not much else to say about this speculation/gamble trade.

$FCX:  CLOSED (UP 26%)  Finally, this trade pays off, and handsomely!  I was holding more contracts than the JPM trade so my account ended up closing in the green today.  If I had never taken the JPM trade, I’d be sitting pretty, but such is life.  

Stay tuned for entries and predictions for tomorrow!