Picks for Thursday July 11, 2013: $DDD, $DIS, $GS, $HES

Here are my picks for tomorrow.  Just a quick note that futures are up quite a bit after hours.  Let’s see if that holds into tomorrow.

$DDD:  I like a long entry on a close above 48.75.  Targets are 50.98 and 51.87.  Stop is TBD.  MACD and Stochs are supporting a bullish move.DDD_JULY_11_2013

$DIS:  Here is a bracket trade; similar to the one posted a few days ago.  I like a long entry of 65.60 with a target of 67.88.  A shot entry of 63.75 with a target of 62.00.  Stop TBD.DIS_JULY_11_2013

$GS:  I like a long entry on a close above 157.60.  Targets are 160.80 and 165.65.  Stop TBD.GS_JULY_11_2013

$HES:  I like a long entry on a close above 69.05 with a target of 72.40.  My stop is TBD.HES_JULY_11_2013

Keep an eye on some stock picks from yesterday:

$DMND

$COST

$CELG

There you are.  Good luck to everyone.

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Market Review July 10, 2013

Today was a pretty boring day.  Nothing really happened in the markets even with the FOMC.  SPY closed a few pennies above it’s close from yesterday.  The DOW finished pennies below while the NASDAQ had a rather strong bullish day.  I am still bullish on the markets.  It’s not really worth posting charts today, so I will get into the next segment:

REVIEW OF YESTERDAY’S PICKS:

$BTU:  No Trigger.

$COST:  You’d have been triggered in.  Not much action.

$DECK:  No Trigger

$QCOM:  No Trigger

$CELG:  You would have been triggered in; up a few pennies.

$XONE: You would have been triggered in, but as pointed out, there are no options for this stock, unfortunately.

$DMND:  You would have been triggered in; down a few pennies.

REAL ACCOUNT ACTIVITY:

$UA:  HOLDING (+2%) I still expect a bullish move north.

$LNKD:  HOLDING (-8%)  I’m not sure what to think here, but it seems, at least on the daily chart, that we found a bottom.  I expect we go back to retest 195.

$DMND: OPENED (-14%)  A lot of this loss is due to commission and the bid/ask spread. I expect to rebound in the coming days.

$AXP:  CLOSED (+17%)  I am grateful I was able to get out before the plunge down today.  Wish I had shorted, but such is life.

That’s about it for my open positions.  Picks for tomorrow coming soon.

Picks for Wednesday July 10, 2013: $BTU, $COST, $DECK, $QCOM, $CELG, $XONE, $DMND

I have a quite a list for you all to make up for lost time and because a lot of these look ripe for the taking!  Let’s get started:

$BTU:  I like a close above 16.21 with a target of 18.00.  Oscillators are starting to turn around and I think a break above the 16.21 line will set this stock on a bullish uptrend.  Stop TBD.BTU_JULY_10_2013

$COST:  If you had been watching this, you would have gotten triggered in today.  Sadly, I was not watching.  I think this guy is going higher.  15min bullish entry with a target of 115.39.  Stop is 112.00COST_JULY_10_2013

$DECK:  This stock has been strong ever since I thought to buy puts a few weeks ago.  We just broke out of a long term and short term downward trend line.  I like this stock long with a 15min entry.  Targets are 55.42, 57.19 and 59.97.  Stop is 53.00DECK_JULY_10_2013

$QCOM:  We are in a clear downward channel.  I like an entry on a close below 58.86 or if you want to be aggressive, take a 15min short entry.  Target 1 is 57.36.  T2 is 56.56.  Stop is 60.40.  Careful on this one with the R/R ratio.QCOM_JULY_10_2013

$CELG:  I like this one long.  It looks strong and broke out of a short term downward trend line a few days ago.  This is a 15min entry with targets of 127.60 and 130.  The R/R ratio isn’t the best so watch out for this one as well.  CELG_JULY_10_2013

$XONE:  Pure speculation but this thing is so overly extended I can’t see how it wouldn’t have a pullback.  The only question is when.  Keep a close eye because it has a ways to fall.XONE_JULY_10_2013

$DMND:  This one just broke out from some long term resistance.  I like this one long on a 15min entry with a target of 24.19 followed by 26.38. Stop is 20.95DMND_JULY_10_2013

Best of luck with all of your trades and positions!

Market Recap July 3, 2013

Happy Independence Day, Everyone!!

As we know, today was a half day of trading.  Taking that into account, it looks like volume was on par with yesterday’s action in the overall market.  However, we once again failed the 50 MA.  I’m not sure if or when we will break it, but I truly wish the market would pick a direction and get back into a trend.  Although it’s been true for over a week, it’s very obvious that we are range bound by the 50 and 100 SMAs.  Notice that Stochs are turning up as is MACD.  This could be an early signal that the bulls are ready to take control.  But as always, only time will tell.  I have re-assessed my analysis with a more defined bracket trade.  Currently, we look to be in a downward expanding triangle.  A break out of this trend (and subsequently a break above the 50 SMA) should send us higher.  A break below the 100 should keep this short term bearish trend in tact.  SPY_JULY_3_2013

REVIEW OF YESTERDAY’S PICKS:

$TLT:  You would have gotten triggered in bearish on the 15min rule finishing the day up $0.17.

$COST:  No Trigger

$UA:  No trigger, but it looks like Friday could be a good entry.

$GOOG: No trigger, but keep an eye on this one.  That bottom trend line looks strong.

REAL ACCOUNT ACTIVITY:

$POT:  HOLDING (-22%)  I see now that I probably went short right at support.  It’s all in the perspective of how you draw your trend lines.  I should have used the wick from the candle on 11/26.  Although percentage wise I’m down considerably, I am not down much monetarily.  My stop is remaining in place.  If I get stopped out on Friday, then so be it.

That wraps things up for tonight.  I hope to have some picks up tomorrow.  Again, wishing everyone a safe, fun, happy 4th!

Picks for Tomorrow July 3, 2013: $TLT, $COST, $UA, $GOOG

**Please note that the market closes at 1:00PM EST tomorrow.**

$TLT:  This is a bit of a risky trade in the sense that confirmation isn’t strong, but very low risk given your R/R ratio.  I think we will bounce off of that upper trendline down to around 107.82.  Although oscillators are turning up, it looks like we are in a bearish flag on declining volume.  So those are the major points of this trade.  I like this one on a 15min entry bearish.

$COST:  I have been watching this one for a while and I like it long on a close above 112.55.  Target is 115.40.COST_JULY_2_2013

$UA:  I like this one long as well on a close above 60.96.  I would really like to see volume pick up if we close above that entry point to confirm the trade.  I think this has a lot of upside with a target of 65.50.UA_JULY_3_2013

 

$GOOG:  The mighty Google.  Is it’s bullish run over?  It could be, but I think it has legs to run long if it breaks above 895.  Target is 920.  Notice that this would be an entry above a horizontal resistance and a short term downward trend line.  Stop is TBD.GOOG_JULY_3_2013

That’s about all for now.  Keep an eye and best of luck with all of your trades!

Picks for tomorrow, June 19, 2013: $DDD, $DIS, $FSLR, $HD

Well as I mentioned yesterday, I don’t plan on taking any addition positions until after the Fed speaks, so that we get some sort of idea of a direction.  With that in mind, all entries will be in the last 15min of the trading day tomorrow.  Let’s get started:

$DDD:  The entry I like is a close above 48.90.  The trend is looking bullish and despite the down day today, I believe the trend is still in tact.  However, as I’ve been saying about a lot of stocks lately, I’d like to see volume increase with a bullish move.DDD_JUNE_19_2013

 

$DIS:  This is a trade I would have gotten into at the end of today had it not been for the FED tomorrow.  That being said, as lon gas we don’t get a huge move up, I would enter long given that we close above today’s high.DIS_JUNE_19_2013

$FSLR:  This one is interesting.  It is in some sort of pennant/flag pattern as volume has declined steadily for the duration of the pattern.  I believe this is a bearish pattern, but time will tell.  Therefore, I have a number of entries.  Conservatively on the bearish side, I like an entry with a close of 44.30.  A more aggressive bearish entry is a close below 45.50.  On the bullish side, I like an entry of 46.80.  Again, these are all end of day closes in order to make an entry, but I would expect a breakout in either direction tomorrow.FSLR_JUNE_19_2013

$HD.  Well I got burned on this stock last week, but I think it has the signs of turning bullish.  I like entering this one on a close above 75.55.HD_JUNE_19_2013

Here are some other trades I’m looking at:

$AEO:  Same entry as yesterday

$AAPL: Same entry as yesterday

$COST:  Same as yesterday

$HAL:  Get in on close above today’s high.

$XOM:  Watch for a bullish entry

$JCP:  Same entry as yesterday

$LOW:  Entry of 41.88

$PHM: Same entry as yesterday

$SLV:  Close below 20.72

$UA:  Watch the bracket trade

$WMT:  Entry with a close above 76.25.

Keep a very close eye on these two; WLT is close to it’s all time lows.  It is in some sort of downward triangle that may breakout soon.  In addition, it just formed a morning star reversal pattern on huge volume.  If it breaks out of that triangle, it may be worth writing some puts and/or buying some calls.

Next is BBRY which is in a long term symmetrical triangle.  Watch for a breakout!

 

That about wraps it up.  I will be cautious tomorrow.  I’d like to see a bullish trend resume as there are a lot of great setups forming, but we’ll see what happens tomorrow.  Good luck, all!

 

Market Overview from June 18, 2013 with a Look Ahead to Tomorrow

The market had another bullish today, but on horrifically low volume.  What does this mean?  Well I am certainly not a market expert, but I would suggest that all the “smart” and  “big” money that will move the market is on the sidelines until the Fed speaks tomorrow.  Even then, I don’t expect roaring volume, but I would definitely expect a pop higher than the recent anemic volume action.  Anyway, I’m getting slightly ahead of myself.

Today we break out of a triangle (yay!) that’s been forming for the past month or so.  We closed above my target entry, but I did not take any market close trades today.  As mentioned before, we closed on weak volume despite the break out.  However, oscillators did support the bullish move.  There isn’t a whole lot else to say so here is my chart:

SPY_JUNE_18_2013

I’m going to talk about my real account and yesterday’s picks before I talk about my predictions for tomorrow, so here we go:

REAL ACCOUNT ACTION:

$VZ:  CLOSED 5% LOSS  Well hooray for me.  VZ recovered from it’s down day yesterday with a nice bullish candle.  Volume was okay, and we closed above the 50SMA, but we fell short of closing above yesterday’s high.  I really wanted to stay in this trade, but given how I shouldn’t have been in it at all, I cut my loss (5%) loss which really helped my account.  If we didn’t have the FED talking tomorrow, I may have just closed out 3 options and held on to two, but I didn’t want to gamble.  The loss is disappointing, but not nearly as bad as what it was (25%) or what it could have been.

$JNJ:  ENTERED I think this is a strong overall stock and I took a bullish entry once we closed above today’s 15min candle.  I’m currently up a whopping 1%.  There’s not much to say about this one other than the fact that I believe it is still bullish and I plan on taking a small profit prior to the FED speaking tomorrow (I just gave away my prediction for tomorrow!).  Either way, my stop will be tight and I don’t plan to hold through the FED announcement.

$FCX:  STILL IN This bugger of a stock is still not cooporating with me although I am getting closer and closer to my target.  I will end up eeking out about a 5% profit which really has not been worth the headache.  However, I’d rather have a 5% profit than any sort of loss.  My position is small, so I plan on tightening my gap and holding until either it or my target is reached.  I will hold through the FED announcement.

IF YOU TOOK MY ADVICE:

Today would have been an excellent day for people listening to my 15min advice:

$JNJ was a 15min entry.  You’d be up 1%.  Nothing special

$AMZN:  In at 280.31.  Closed at 281.74.  Max: 282.90  Nice profit

$DDD:  You never would have gotten triggered in.  Good trade to avoid today.

$PHM: We did not close above our entry.  Would not have been triggered.

$AAPL:  We did not closed below our entry.  No trade.

$AEO:  We did not closed below our entry.  No trade.

$DIS:  You would have gotten triggered in at the end of the day.  I would sell tomorrow on a pop.

$HAL:  You would have gotten triggered in at the end of the day.  I would sell tomorrow on a pop.

$JCP:  We did not closed below our entry.  No trade.

$NFLX:  We would not have gotten triggered.  No trade.  Good one to avoid today.

$SNDK: We would have entered at 61.79.  Closed at 63.05.  High: 63.26.  Nice profit!

$Z:  We would have gotten in at 56.11.  Closed at 56.73.  High: 57.50.  Could have been a nice profit or an okay one depending on if you let the trade run or cut near the peak.  As mentioned, though, this one is risky since it is a low volume stock.

$TGT:  Entry at 69.97.  Closed at 70.16.  This wouldn’t have been a good day trade.  Perhaps we will be up tomorrow morning.

$TSLA:  Entry at 102.50 with a close of 103.42 and a high of 103.98.  Not a bad trade!

$COST:  We did not close above my entry.

That was 15 stock picks.  5 trades were profitable, with 1 being neutral.  2 trades you would have gotten triggered into and will have to wait to see until tomorrow on how they shape up.  7 trade set-ups allowed you to avoid negative trades.  Not a bad day at all!

TOMORROW’S MARKET:

As I alluded to before, I believe the bullish trend is going to continue tomorrow on low volume.  I don’t think it will be huge volume, but i think we will be up 25 to 30 points in the morning and maybe drift up to 50 or 70 by the time the Fed talks.  At that point, it’s anyone’s guess, but I would assume that we will give up those gains and may even turn red for the day after the Fed talks, but that’s not even a gut feeling.  I honestly have no idea what’s going to happen, that is my modest and very shaky prediction.  My plan is to take profits on trades prior to the Fed speaking then only enter end of day trades if they meet my entry criteria.

Happy Trading and best of luck.  Please feel free to post any questions or comments!

Picks for Tomorrow June 18, 2013: $JNJ, $AMZN, $DDD, $PHM

Let’s see if I can have a better day tomorrow than today!

$JNJ.  Looks to me like it just broke out of a triangle.  Oscillators are turning up and RSI is supporting the move.  I think this one is a 15min confirmation entry tomorrow bullishly.  I like this trade if it cooperates.  It has a nice RtR.

JNJ_JUNE_18_2013

 

$AMZN:  Here’s another 15min entry play.  I like this one almost as much as JNJ.  Unfortunately, it does not have as good of a RtR, but it still looks like a nice play.  First target is 282.40 and the second target is at 284. My stop is at 273.  I’d really like to see some stronger volume on this one, though.

AMZN_JUNE_18_2013

 

$DDD:  This trade looks good to me.  It just broke out of a triangle and although volume wasn’t excellent, it wasn’t all that bad.  MACD is about to turn, Stochs support the move and RSI is turning up.  If after 15min we get confirmation, I would take this trade bullishly.

DDD_JUNE_18_2013

 

$PHM:  I like this one long with a close above 21.98.  See chart below for details.  I haven’t chosen a stop yet but my target is 24.40.  Oscillators are supporting the trade.

DDD_JUNE_18_2013

 

Here are some additional stocks that may be of interest:

$AAPL  I still like it bearish on a close below 428.

$AEO: I also like bearish on a close below 18.92.

$DIS I still like the bullish trade on a close over 65.15

$HAL I like bullishly on a close over 44.00  This is 0.30 cents higher than yesterday due to today’s wick.

$JCP I still like bearish on a close below 17.11

$NFLX Looks nice for a bullish run.  15min entry on this one.

$SNDK:  just broke out of a triangle/wedge to all-time highs.  15min bullish on this one.

$Z:  Bullish after the first 15min.  Be wary of the low volume on this one.  Not sure if I would take this trade myself.

$TGT:  Looks good for a 15min bullish entry as does:

$TSLA:  I like this one with a confirming 15min entry.

Lastly, $COST I still like on a close above 112.55.  This is increased from yesterday due to today’s wick.

Good luck all.  If you have any questions, feel free to ask!

 

 

Picks for June 17, 2013: $VZ, $AAPL, $DD, $DIS, $FSLR, $HAL, $JCP, $UA

Here we are on the eve of a market on the verge of a breakout (we hope) in either direction.  The hope is that a trend forms so that we can choose a direction.  Let’s see what’s in the works for Monday:

$VZ:  This on looks like it’s on the verge or just beginning a bullish move.  I like a 15min entry on Monday as long as the price movement supports the bullish move.  My targets are  52.37 and 53.58.  Stop is at 50.14.  This is about a 3:1 move at the ultimate target.  Oscillators support the move, but volume has been declining.  Hopefully we get some strong volume tomorrow.

VZ_JUNE_17_2013

$AAPL:  This one looks good bearishly on a close below 428.  The first target would be 416.63; ultimately we could get back to $383.00.  I would not take this bearish trade unless we close strongly below 428 with supporting volume.  Fortunately, oscillators are supporting the bearish move.  Let’s see what Monday brings:

AAPL_JUNE_17_2013

$DD:  This one is a good candidate for a 15min short.  We close well below my entry point of 53.38 on strong volume.  Oscillators are supporting the bearish move.  I think we are good to go down to 51.60 and then 50.90.  Where you place your stop is where you will determine your Risk to Reward (RtR).  As for me, I would put my stop above the 50 EMA.  This gives us a RtR of only 1:1 which is unfortunate.  Based on this, I would probably not take the trade, but if you are a day trader, you may be interested in this one.

DD_JUNE_17_2013

$DIS:  I really like this bracketed trade.  Bullishly, I’d want a close above 65.15.  Bearishly, I’d like a close below 61.98.  Personally, I’d rather see a bullish breakout since it is the path of least resistance.  Notice that volume has been decreasing, which I think will (or should) foreshadow a breakout with solid volume.  Lastly, oscillators are moving bullish, hopefully supporting a bullish breakout.

DIS_JUNE_17_2013

$FSLR:  While I’d be a little careful of a reversal, I think everything is confirming a bearish trend here.  I like a bounce off of 40.90.  Enter this one after the first 15min if price confirms the direction.  Put your stop at least 46.50.

FSLR_JUNE_17_2013

$HAL:  I like an entry on a close above 43.70.  Oscillators are starting to turn upward, but I’d like to see a close over that price level on strong volume to confirm the trend.  Let’s see what happens if/when we get that close.

HAL_JUNE_17_2013

$JCP:  We are approaching a level that I’ve been eyeing for a few weeks now.  If we get a close below 17.11, I am taking this trade bearish down to a target of 15.90.  Oscillators are supporting the move, but I would like to see volume support the move down.  I’m definitely keeping an eye on this one.

JCP_JUNE_17_2013

$UA:  Here is another bracketed trade set-up.  We could be finding support for a bullish reversal, or we may break that support and head low.  Bullishly, I like a close above 60.96 and bearishly I like a close below 58.40.

UA_JUNE_17_2013

Although not posted, keep an eye on the following:

COST: Neutral, but close to choosing a direction.

VALE: Short

AEO:  Short

NKE: breakout from triangle

That about wraps up my picks for tomorrow.  I hope you guys have good luck if you choose to entertain any of these choices.  Just ensure you do your own due diligence before taking any real money trades.  Good night!

Market Overview for Friday June 14, 2013

Good evening everyone!  It looks like the market may have pulled a “gotcha” today.  We started out bullishly enough but as the day wore on, a slow sell off ensued.  With today’s candle, a clear triangle is being formed on $SPY (this is also true on $SPX and $DJIA and $DIA).  Which way this thing will break is anyone’s guess, but the oscillators MAY be giving a preview.  First, let’s look at volume.  It was very low today and generally has been decreasing ever since the pop from 5/22.  Oscillators are all bearish aside from stochastics which just crossed and are pointed upward.  Since the EMAs are getting tangled together, it may be possible that stochs iare giving an early indicator that the move will be bullish.  This is just speculation and absolutely not something we should be taking a trade based off of.  I think a trend will form once we break north of 165.40 or south of 159.72.

SPY_JUNE_14_2013

Real Trades:

I did not enter any trades today.  However, I am still holding FCX.  Why?  Well it’s due to dumb luck because I had intended to move my stop to $30.20 this morning, but when I checked my account I had never actually hit the “submit” button to confirm the trigger.  As a result I saved myself from getting stopped out too soon.  Looking at the chart again, I should have put my stop above the open from the candle on 6/11 if I was going to move it anywhere.  This is a good lesson learned for me on where to place my stops but to also be more careful when I enter trades and triggers on my broker account.  All that being said, I’m not crazy about this trade anymore.  I’d love for it to slide down to the low of 6/13 I’ll take a tiny profit and move on to the next trade.  For now, though I am going to place my stop at 30.35 and leave it at that.  FCX_JUNE_14_2013

 

Results from Yesterday’s Picks:

$COST would not have triggered.  $GOOG would not have triggered and $DE would not have triggered.  No action, but sometimes that’s how it goes.  Better not not get into a trade than violate your trade plan or get into an emotional trade.  Speaking of trade plans, while I have one in my head, it’s been brought to my attention that I should write it down.  I plan on writing up a page on this blog with my plan this weekend.  Stay tuned!

Enjoy your weekend, everyone.  I will be posting my picks for next week on Sunday afternoon/evening.