Market Review July 10, 2013

Today was a pretty boring day.  Nothing really happened in the markets even with the FOMC.  SPY closed a few pennies above it’s close from yesterday.  The DOW finished pennies below while the NASDAQ had a rather strong bullish day.  I am still bullish on the markets.  It’s not really worth posting charts today, so I will get into the next segment:

REVIEW OF YESTERDAY’S PICKS:

$BTU:  No Trigger.

$COST:  You’d have been triggered in.  Not much action.

$DECK:  No Trigger

$QCOM:  No Trigger

$CELG:  You would have been triggered in; up a few pennies.

$XONE: You would have been triggered in, but as pointed out, there are no options for this stock, unfortunately.

$DMND:  You would have been triggered in; down a few pennies.

REAL ACCOUNT ACTIVITY:

$UA:  HOLDING (+2%) I still expect a bullish move north.

$LNKD:  HOLDING (-8%)  I’m not sure what to think here, but it seems, at least on the daily chart, that we found a bottom.  I expect we go back to retest 195.

$DMND: OPENED (-14%)  A lot of this loss is due to commission and the bid/ask spread. I expect to rebound in the coming days.

$AXP:  CLOSED (+17%)  I am grateful I was able to get out before the plunge down today.  Wish I had shorted, but such is life.

That’s about it for my open positions.  Picks for tomorrow coming soon.

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Picks for Wednesday July 10, 2013: $BTU, $COST, $DECK, $QCOM, $CELG, $XONE, $DMND

I have a quite a list for you all to make up for lost time and because a lot of these look ripe for the taking!  Let’s get started:

$BTU:  I like a close above 16.21 with a target of 18.00.  Oscillators are starting to turn around and I think a break above the 16.21 line will set this stock on a bullish uptrend.  Stop TBD.BTU_JULY_10_2013

$COST:  If you had been watching this, you would have gotten triggered in today.  Sadly, I was not watching.  I think this guy is going higher.  15min bullish entry with a target of 115.39.  Stop is 112.00COST_JULY_10_2013

$DECK:  This stock has been strong ever since I thought to buy puts a few weeks ago.  We just broke out of a long term and short term downward trend line.  I like this stock long with a 15min entry.  Targets are 55.42, 57.19 and 59.97.  Stop is 53.00DECK_JULY_10_2013

$QCOM:  We are in a clear downward channel.  I like an entry on a close below 58.86 or if you want to be aggressive, take a 15min short entry.  Target 1 is 57.36.  T2 is 56.56.  Stop is 60.40.  Careful on this one with the R/R ratio.QCOM_JULY_10_2013

$CELG:  I like this one long.  It looks strong and broke out of a short term downward trend line a few days ago.  This is a 15min entry with targets of 127.60 and 130.  The R/R ratio isn’t the best so watch out for this one as well.  CELG_JULY_10_2013

$XONE:  Pure speculation but this thing is so overly extended I can’t see how it wouldn’t have a pullback.  The only question is when.  Keep a close eye because it has a ways to fall.XONE_JULY_10_2013

$DMND:  This one just broke out from some long term resistance.  I like this one long on a 15min entry with a target of 24.19 followed by 26.38. Stop is 20.95DMND_JULY_10_2013

Best of luck with all of your trades and positions!

Market Review Thursday June 27, 2013

Well here we are on one of the last days in June.  The market behaved as I expected; bullish day on relatively low volume (lower than the previous 5 days).  In addition, we failed to close over the 50SMA on both the DOW (which briefly crossed the 50 SMA) and the S&P500 which touched it but did not even cross.  So where does that leave us for tomorrow?  Well I’m not Elliot Wave Theorist, but if we do not get a close above the 50SMA tomorrow, we may be heading for a 5th wave down.  This is just an observation, but as a result, I do not plan on getting into any trades unless there is a clear bullish or clear bearish move.  All that being said, I could certainly see the bulls coming in with solid volume and lifting this market higher… but I’m not betting on it.SPY_JUNE_27_2013

REVIEW OF YESTERDAY’S PICKS:

$DECK:  Not even close to an entry.  Good not taking it short today.

$TSLA:  I did not enter, but my trigger would have been hit if I kept it on.  Let’s see if this trade pays off tomorrow.

$LOW:  You would have been triggered in.  Again, I did not get in due to the horrible week I had.  We will see how it works out tomorrow.

$BBBY:  No trade since earnings came out.

$TWC:  I know I didn’t mention this one yesterday, but I did a few days ago.  It exploded out of it’s bull flag yesterday and today.  Huge gains to be had… unfortunately, I missed it.

REAL ACCOUNT ACTIVITY:

$FSLR:  CLOSED (-15%).   Well this trade just went against me.  Can’t really say much else than that.  I do wish I had mitigated my loss a little bit better, but it failed to break out bullish… so be it.

$AAPL:  CLOSED (+7%):  Hey! Finally a green trade!  What a horrible case of the “shanks” I’ve had.  Glad to have gotten in and out.  I MAY get back in short tomorrow depending on price action, but tomorrow may just be a sideline day for me.

Picks for tomorrow coming soon.

 

 

 

Picks and Observations for Thursday, June 27, 2013: $DECK, $LOW, $TSLA, $BBBY

Hi all, here is a quick peak at 4 plays I’m looking at in the near term.

$DECK:  This one kicked my butt recently, but it won’t happen again.  I am going to take a more conservative approach this time.  I like going short on a close below $46.55.  First target is 44.67.  It will be a quick trade for me due to the 200 SMA and there is a gap below that.  DECK_JUNE_27_2013

$LOW:  There is a short term downward channel/wedge forming.  A close above the gap, above the 50SMA and the aforementioned developing pattern on good volume should indicate a bullish run.  My entry is on a close above 41.05 with a target of 43.18.  Stop TBD.LOW_JUNE_26_2013

$TSLA:  This is another entry on close type trade.  This time the entry is 107.20 with a target of 113.48.  Stop is TBD.TSLA_JUNE_27_2013

$BBBY:  This stock looks strong considering the indecision going on in the market.  I like an entry on a close above 70.38.  Target is 71.92.  Stop is TBD.  For the aggressive, you may want to try the 15min entry.  The reason for this is because we closed above the long term downward trend line and above the 50 SMA.  UPDATE:  BBBY posted earnings tonight.  Sales were down 2.1%.  Not sure how this will effect the chart, but always keep earnings in mind on your stocks!BBBY_JUNE_27_2013

Remember to stick to your plan and take deliberate and calculated trades.   Goodnight all!

Market Overview June 24, 2013

Good afternoon everyone!  Well today was yet another bearish day.  It probably would have been worse had we not gotten a statement from the FED.  As such, that is sure to make the rest of the week very interesting.  Were these the words that will lead to a bullish reversal or was it just one afternoon of light buying to make today’s sell-off not seem as bad.  Volume was still pretty steady today as it has been over the last two sessions with some strong selling in the last 5min.  It will be interesting to see if that selling continues tomorrow or if we start to reverse.  Note that RSI still has some room to move lower as to Stochs and MACD.SPY_JUNE_24_2013

REVIEW OF YESTERDAY’S PICKS:

$AAPL:  Great 15min entry.  At the day’s low you would have been up $6.00.  At the close you would be up about $2.00

$WFC:  No entry

$DIS:  No Entry

$TWC:  No Entry

$DECK:  You would be about even on close and up a few points at the day’s bottom.  Not a great day trade.

$GS:  You would be down unless you sold at today’s lows.  Here is a note; if a stock opens up down and then has a long bearish candle and you are near your target, it is not a good idea to execute a trade.  The 15min rule assumes that you still have a good R/R ratio.

$VMW: You would have gotten triggered in at the end of the day.

$GPS: No trigger

$FSLR:  Looks like it may have found a bottom.  Keep watching!

$IBM:  Same as GS.

$VLO:  This would have been an excellent day trade.  You would have been up almost $1.00 or if you held through close you would still be up $0.50.

REAL ACCOUNT ACTIVITY:

$DECK  OPENED (-5%)  I still like the looks of this trade short (unless the market reverses.  I do not see resistance until 44.80 or so.  However, I did notice after the fact that this stock has been trading with less volume than I would like.  As a result, I am going to tighten my stop a bit above today’s high at 48.65.  I’m hoping this trade will not go against me, but it teaches me a lesson to keep a close eye on the amount of volume.

$UA:  OPENED (-13%)  This trade did not do well for me today.  I was expecting the selloff to continue but the FED came in and the market moved up.  Such is life.  My stop is at 57.40, but if the markets look strong I may tighten even further and lick my wounds.  My target to get out (hopefully on an intraday tag) is 55.05.  I have no good reason for not taking the AAPL trade other than fear and emotion.  My analysis was correct and that is the chart I spent more time on.  I should have stuck with my analysis.

Picks for tomorrow will be up soon.  Thanks for reading!

Picks for June 24, 2013: $AAPL, $WFC, $DIS, $TWC and more!

I’m going to be very quick here.  Sorry for the brief posts tonight:

$AAPL:  15min bearish entry.  First target is 400

AAPL_JUNE_24_2013

 

$WFC:  Bullish entry on close over 41.73  Thanks to Michael Zoitas @Yobronomics (http://yobronomics.com/) for pointing this trade out.

WFC_JUNE_24_2013

 

$DIS Short on a close below 61.78.

DIS_JUNE_24_2013

 

$TWC:  Looks like a bullish flag is forming.  Watch for a breakout:TWC_JUNE_24_2013

Some other potential plays:

$DECK 15min bearish

$GS 15min bearish

$VMW bearish on a close below 66.42

$GPS ascending triangle.  Enter on a close above 42.37

$FSLR watch for a bullish reversal

$IBM 15min bearish potential

$VLO 15min bearish with a target of 34.00

Goodnight, all!  I hope to have a more detailed update tomorrow.