Picks for Tuesday, July 16: $CAT, $LULU, $FLSR

So today I am just going to take a look at 3 potential plays.  1 brackett, 1 long and 1 15min rule.  So let’s begin!

$CAT:  First off, let me thank #Tradesmartu.com for pointing out this trade.  It looks like we could go in either direction with this stock.  On the bullish side, we need a close above today’s wick as well as a close above the 200 SMA.  Target is 90.60.  Stop is TBD.  On the short side, I like a close below 84.85 and a target of 81.48.  Stop is TBD.CAT_JULY_16_2013

$LULU:  I got burned on this stock a few weeks ago, but it’s looking like a good play is setting up.  There are some long term trend lines, the 200 SMA and recent wicks I’d like to close above.  In addition, there is an ascending triangle forming which I outlined in pink.  I like a close above 66.85 with a target of 70.40.  Stop is TBD.    Notice there is a short trade as well.  That was from a few weeks ago, but it may be valid depending on how LULU behaves.  For now, I am looking at the bullish trade.LULU_JULY_16_2013

$FSLR:  Here is the 15min trade.  It looks like we just had a nice pop on increasing volume. I think FLSR is a strong play with a target of 56.30.  My stop is 48.56.  This trade has an excellent R/R if it plays out as expected.  I think I will leg into this trade with one contract and get a couple more if the trend continues.  FSLR_JULY_16_2013

That about does it.  Best of luck with all your trades.

Market Recap for July 15, 2013

Hi all.  I just want to apologize for missing the last couple of days.  The summer is proving difficult to keep up with work, leisure, family/friends, and stocks.  As a result, the blog is slipping off the plate.  Therefore, I make no promises on how often I update, but I would like to be able to update at least 3 times per week during the summer.  That is my short term goal with my long term goal of updating daily once the summer winds down in a few months.

So.  Today we had another all-time high close but the end of the day saw a slight sell-off.  I think we are due for another turn down, draw down, whatever you want to call, but I think the bears are sniffing around.  That being said, I would not enter short unless tomorrow really does sell-off.

REAL LIFE ACCOUNT:

$DIS:  HOLDING (-15%)  I entered this at the wrong time.  I think my strategy is going to focus more on formations rather than intermediate support and resistance lines.  I want to focus on strong pivot points, trend lines and patterns ready to break out.  That is my new focus when looking at trades.

$HES:  HOLDING (-2%)  See comments on DIS.  I should have gotten in early, but I was worried about an intermediate resistance that probably was something more to be aware of than to place a trade around.  

$DMND:  HOLDING (+11%)  Finally, a good trade!  I am moving my stop up but DMND looks strong to me.  It’s due for a down day or two, but I think overall we are heading to 24.00

$WLT:  HOLDING (+55%)  This is good, but not as good as it looks.  I wrote a $12 put that expires this Friday.  I’d be happy to own this stock and write calls against it if it channels or declines.  Similarly if it rises, I’m happy to write puts as it goes up.

Picks for tomorrow coming soon.

Picks for Thursday July 11, 2013: $DDD, $DIS, $GS, $HES

Here are my picks for tomorrow.  Just a quick note that futures are up quite a bit after hours.  Let’s see if that holds into tomorrow.

$DDD:  I like a long entry on a close above 48.75.  Targets are 50.98 and 51.87.  Stop is TBD.  MACD and Stochs are supporting a bullish move.DDD_JULY_11_2013

$DIS:  Here is a bracket trade; similar to the one posted a few days ago.  I like a long entry of 65.60 with a target of 67.88.  A shot entry of 63.75 with a target of 62.00.  Stop TBD.DIS_JULY_11_2013

$GS:  I like a long entry on a close above 157.60.  Targets are 160.80 and 165.65.  Stop TBD.GS_JULY_11_2013

$HES:  I like a long entry on a close above 69.05 with a target of 72.40.  My stop is TBD.HES_JULY_11_2013

Keep an eye on some stock picks from yesterday:

$DMND

$COST

$CELG

There you are.  Good luck to everyone.

Market Overview June 24, 2013

Good afternoon everyone!  Well today was yet another bearish day.  It probably would have been worse had we not gotten a statement from the FED.  As such, that is sure to make the rest of the week very interesting.  Were these the words that will lead to a bullish reversal or was it just one afternoon of light buying to make today’s sell-off not seem as bad.  Volume was still pretty steady today as it has been over the last two sessions with some strong selling in the last 5min.  It will be interesting to see if that selling continues tomorrow or if we start to reverse.  Note that RSI still has some room to move lower as to Stochs and MACD.SPY_JUNE_24_2013

REVIEW OF YESTERDAY’S PICKS:

$AAPL:  Great 15min entry.  At the day’s low you would have been up $6.00.  At the close you would be up about $2.00

$WFC:  No entry

$DIS:  No Entry

$TWC:  No Entry

$DECK:  You would be about even on close and up a few points at the day’s bottom.  Not a great day trade.

$GS:  You would be down unless you sold at today’s lows.  Here is a note; if a stock opens up down and then has a long bearish candle and you are near your target, it is not a good idea to execute a trade.  The 15min rule assumes that you still have a good R/R ratio.

$VMW: You would have gotten triggered in at the end of the day.

$GPS: No trigger

$FSLR:  Looks like it may have found a bottom.  Keep watching!

$IBM:  Same as GS.

$VLO:  This would have been an excellent day trade.  You would have been up almost $1.00 or if you held through close you would still be up $0.50.

REAL ACCOUNT ACTIVITY:

$DECK  OPENED (-5%)  I still like the looks of this trade short (unless the market reverses.  I do not see resistance until 44.80 or so.  However, I did notice after the fact that this stock has been trading with less volume than I would like.  As a result, I am going to tighten my stop a bit above today’s high at 48.65.  I’m hoping this trade will not go against me, but it teaches me a lesson to keep a close eye on the amount of volume.

$UA:  OPENED (-13%)  This trade did not do well for me today.  I was expecting the selloff to continue but the FED came in and the market moved up.  Such is life.  My stop is at 57.40, but if the markets look strong I may tighten even further and lick my wounds.  My target to get out (hopefully on an intraday tag) is 55.05.  I have no good reason for not taking the AAPL trade other than fear and emotion.  My analysis was correct and that is the chart I spent more time on.  I should have stuck with my analysis.

Picks for tomorrow will be up soon.  Thanks for reading!

Picks for June 24, 2013: $AAPL, $WFC, $DIS, $TWC and more!

I’m going to be very quick here.  Sorry for the brief posts tonight:

$AAPL:  15min bearish entry.  First target is 400

AAPL_JUNE_24_2013

 

$WFC:  Bullish entry on close over 41.73  Thanks to Michael Zoitas @Yobronomics (http://yobronomics.com/) for pointing this trade out.

WFC_JUNE_24_2013

 

$DIS Short on a close below 61.78.

DIS_JUNE_24_2013

 

$TWC:  Looks like a bullish flag is forming.  Watch for a breakout:TWC_JUNE_24_2013

Some other potential plays:

$DECK 15min bearish

$GS 15min bearish

$VMW bearish on a close below 66.42

$GPS ascending triangle.  Enter on a close above 42.37

$FSLR watch for a bullish reversal

$IBM 15min bearish potential

$VLO 15min bearish with a target of 34.00

Goodnight, all!  I hope to have a more detailed update tomorrow.

Market Review from June 21, 2013

Hello everyone.  Hope you all are having a great weekend so far.  Mine has been quite busy, but I’m finally ready to get this update posted, so let’s go!

What a wild day on Friday!  From a green open to a faded gap and then back and forth from there.  We ended up closing in the green, but only by 41 points on the DOW.  Volume  was very strong (even stronger than Thursday) as we kissed the 100 SMA on $SPY and just missed touching it on the DOW.  The candle from yesterday was a doji on both indicies which COULD signify a reversal back bullishly.  However, MACD and Stochs are still bearish so I would not just assume that we are heading back up until we get some sort of confirmation.  Ideally I’d like to see a close above 1600 on the S&P which would give me some moderate confirmation of a bullish reversal.  Time will tell, but there should be plenty of good trade setups on Monday and the rest of the week.  See chart below of $SPY:SPX_JUNE_21_2013

REVIEW OF YESTERDAY’S PICKS:

$DE:  You would have gotten triggered in at 82.89 and could have gotten out at 81.75 for over a dollar move.  If you held for the day, you’d have been up 0.42 cents.  Great trade!

$DIS:  Well it is possible that you could have gotten triggered into this trade, but to me it just didn’t feel right.  I would not have taken this trade.  If you did get in, you would have gotten in at 62.30.  You could have gone up about 0.40 cents if you sold at the day’s low, but realizing we were at the low of the day would have been very difficult, unless you were trailing your stop, then you may have broken even.  If you held for the day you would have lost 0.43 cents.  Not a good trade.

$FDX we did not close below the target so no trade would have been triggered.

$UA:  I wanted to get into this trade, but we were down so big so early, I was a little afraid of it so I stayed out.  Had you gotten in, you would have been triggered at 56.85.  Selling at the low of the day would have given you 0.59 cents.  Holding till the end of the day would have put you down 0.03 cents.  Not a great trade.  You could have made some money if you trailed your stop.

$JPM would not have worked out

$AAPL you would have gotten triggered in.  I did not get in, but I am seriously considering it on Monday with 15min confirmation.

$BIDU you would not have gotten triggered

$CSX you would have gotten triggered in at the end of the day.  I wish I had taken this trade, but I was not at the computer at the end of the day.

$FCX: you would not have been triggered into this trade

$HAL: You would not have been triggered into this trade.

$IBM:  This is another trade I would have liked to have legged into.

$O:  You would have gotten triggered in.  Profits on low of the day, still a small profit if still holding at the end of the day.

$VLO:  Great day trade.  I took this one.  I’ll cover it in the next section

$DVY:  You would have gotten triggered in.  Profit if sold at low of the day, would have lost if held until close.

REAL ACCOUNT ACTIVITY:

$JPM  CLOSED (37% LOSS)  OUCH!  This was a really stupid trade from the beginning since I got in on a whim and then I did not manage my loss.  However, this is a perfect trade to learn from, and believe me, I will learn going forward.

$VLO OPENED+CLOSED (+24% ROI)  I was watching this stock in the AM and was able to get in after I saw the stair step forming between 10:00 and 10:10.  I was able to get out after the tweezer bottom formed.  I am very proud of myself for recognizing when to get in and out of this trade.  One of the best trades I’ve done in my short career.  I’m hopeful for more in the coming days and weeks.  I feel like my analysis is getting stronger, but time will tell!

Picks and observations coming up tomorrow.  Goodnight all and GO BRUINS! 🙂

Picks and Predictions for June 21, 2013: $DE, $DIS, $FDX, $UA

BEAR, SHORT.  Those are two words I will be using quite a bit to describe my picks tonight.  Let’s get started, shall we?

DE:  I like this one as a 15 minute entry, short.  ADX is turning up.  We are below all MAs and oscillators support the move.  Volume wasn’t enormous today, but higher than the past few weeks.  83.62 was my original entry point, so if you are already in, great!  Target is 81.60.DE_June_21_2013

DIS:  We close below my entry by one measly penny today!  If you are not in, then after the first 15min, get in (with confirmation).  My stop would be at 63.74 and the first target is the 100 SMA.  The second target is 57.82.  This trade provides a 2:1 R/R ratio.DIS_JUNE_21_2013

$FDX:  This guy had a big down day today.  Unfortunately he’s sitting right above his 200 SMA.  I would like to see a close below 95.10.  My stop would be above the 200 SMA with my first target at 93.18 and the second target at 92.35.FDX_JUNE_21_2013

UA:  I see huge upside with this trade.  15min entry bearish.  Oscillators support and we are below all of the MAs.  Volume could have been better, but I still like the trade.  Target is 54.71.  Stop is at 59.32.  This is a 3:1 R/R ratio trade.UA_JUNE_21_2013

Here are a couple extra stock to look at:

$JPM 15min short

$AAPL short on a close under 416

$BIDU short on a close below 92.00

$CSX short on a close below 23.75

$FCX short on a close below 27.20

$HAL short on a close below 41.30

$IBM short on a close below 196.00

$O 15min short.

$VLO 15min short

$DVY 15min short.

Happy trading, all!

Picks for tomorrow, June 19, 2013: $DDD, $DIS, $FSLR, $HD

Well as I mentioned yesterday, I don’t plan on taking any addition positions until after the Fed speaks, so that we get some sort of idea of a direction.  With that in mind, all entries will be in the last 15min of the trading day tomorrow.  Let’s get started:

$DDD:  The entry I like is a close above 48.90.  The trend is looking bullish and despite the down day today, I believe the trend is still in tact.  However, as I’ve been saying about a lot of stocks lately, I’d like to see volume increase with a bullish move.DDD_JUNE_19_2013

 

$DIS:  This is a trade I would have gotten into at the end of today had it not been for the FED tomorrow.  That being said, as lon gas we don’t get a huge move up, I would enter long given that we close above today’s high.DIS_JUNE_19_2013

$FSLR:  This one is interesting.  It is in some sort of pennant/flag pattern as volume has declined steadily for the duration of the pattern.  I believe this is a bearish pattern, but time will tell.  Therefore, I have a number of entries.  Conservatively on the bearish side, I like an entry with a close of 44.30.  A more aggressive bearish entry is a close below 45.50.  On the bullish side, I like an entry of 46.80.  Again, these are all end of day closes in order to make an entry, but I would expect a breakout in either direction tomorrow.FSLR_JUNE_19_2013

$HD.  Well I got burned on this stock last week, but I think it has the signs of turning bullish.  I like entering this one on a close above 75.55.HD_JUNE_19_2013

Here are some other trades I’m looking at:

$AEO:  Same entry as yesterday

$AAPL: Same entry as yesterday

$COST:  Same as yesterday

$HAL:  Get in on close above today’s high.

$XOM:  Watch for a bullish entry

$JCP:  Same entry as yesterday

$LOW:  Entry of 41.88

$PHM: Same entry as yesterday

$SLV:  Close below 20.72

$UA:  Watch the bracket trade

$WMT:  Entry with a close above 76.25.

Keep a very close eye on these two; WLT is close to it’s all time lows.  It is in some sort of downward triangle that may breakout soon.  In addition, it just formed a morning star reversal pattern on huge volume.  If it breaks out of that triangle, it may be worth writing some puts and/or buying some calls.

Next is BBRY which is in a long term symmetrical triangle.  Watch for a breakout!

 

That about wraps it up.  I will be cautious tomorrow.  I’d like to see a bullish trend resume as there are a lot of great setups forming, but we’ll see what happens tomorrow.  Good luck, all!

 

Market Overview from June 18, 2013 with a Look Ahead to Tomorrow

The market had another bullish today, but on horrifically low volume.  What does this mean?  Well I am certainly not a market expert, but I would suggest that all the “smart” and  “big” money that will move the market is on the sidelines until the Fed speaks tomorrow.  Even then, I don’t expect roaring volume, but I would definitely expect a pop higher than the recent anemic volume action.  Anyway, I’m getting slightly ahead of myself.

Today we break out of a triangle (yay!) that’s been forming for the past month or so.  We closed above my target entry, but I did not take any market close trades today.  As mentioned before, we closed on weak volume despite the break out.  However, oscillators did support the bullish move.  There isn’t a whole lot else to say so here is my chart:

SPY_JUNE_18_2013

I’m going to talk about my real account and yesterday’s picks before I talk about my predictions for tomorrow, so here we go:

REAL ACCOUNT ACTION:

$VZ:  CLOSED 5% LOSS  Well hooray for me.  VZ recovered from it’s down day yesterday with a nice bullish candle.  Volume was okay, and we closed above the 50SMA, but we fell short of closing above yesterday’s high.  I really wanted to stay in this trade, but given how I shouldn’t have been in it at all, I cut my loss (5%) loss which really helped my account.  If we didn’t have the FED talking tomorrow, I may have just closed out 3 options and held on to two, but I didn’t want to gamble.  The loss is disappointing, but not nearly as bad as what it was (25%) or what it could have been.

$JNJ:  ENTERED I think this is a strong overall stock and I took a bullish entry once we closed above today’s 15min candle.  I’m currently up a whopping 1%.  There’s not much to say about this one other than the fact that I believe it is still bullish and I plan on taking a small profit prior to the FED speaking tomorrow (I just gave away my prediction for tomorrow!).  Either way, my stop will be tight and I don’t plan to hold through the FED announcement.

$FCX:  STILL IN This bugger of a stock is still not cooporating with me although I am getting closer and closer to my target.  I will end up eeking out about a 5% profit which really has not been worth the headache.  However, I’d rather have a 5% profit than any sort of loss.  My position is small, so I plan on tightening my gap and holding until either it or my target is reached.  I will hold through the FED announcement.

IF YOU TOOK MY ADVICE:

Today would have been an excellent day for people listening to my 15min advice:

$JNJ was a 15min entry.  You’d be up 1%.  Nothing special

$AMZN:  In at 280.31.  Closed at 281.74.  Max: 282.90  Nice profit

$DDD:  You never would have gotten triggered in.  Good trade to avoid today.

$PHM: We did not close above our entry.  Would not have been triggered.

$AAPL:  We did not closed below our entry.  No trade.

$AEO:  We did not closed below our entry.  No trade.

$DIS:  You would have gotten triggered in at the end of the day.  I would sell tomorrow on a pop.

$HAL:  You would have gotten triggered in at the end of the day.  I would sell tomorrow on a pop.

$JCP:  We did not closed below our entry.  No trade.

$NFLX:  We would not have gotten triggered.  No trade.  Good one to avoid today.

$SNDK: We would have entered at 61.79.  Closed at 63.05.  High: 63.26.  Nice profit!

$Z:  We would have gotten in at 56.11.  Closed at 56.73.  High: 57.50.  Could have been a nice profit or an okay one depending on if you let the trade run or cut near the peak.  As mentioned, though, this one is risky since it is a low volume stock.

$TGT:  Entry at 69.97.  Closed at 70.16.  This wouldn’t have been a good day trade.  Perhaps we will be up tomorrow morning.

$TSLA:  Entry at 102.50 with a close of 103.42 and a high of 103.98.  Not a bad trade!

$COST:  We did not close above my entry.

That was 15 stock picks.  5 trades were profitable, with 1 being neutral.  2 trades you would have gotten triggered into and will have to wait to see until tomorrow on how they shape up.  7 trade set-ups allowed you to avoid negative trades.  Not a bad day at all!

TOMORROW’S MARKET:

As I alluded to before, I believe the bullish trend is going to continue tomorrow on low volume.  I don’t think it will be huge volume, but i think we will be up 25 to 30 points in the morning and maybe drift up to 50 or 70 by the time the Fed talks.  At that point, it’s anyone’s guess, but I would assume that we will give up those gains and may even turn red for the day after the Fed talks, but that’s not even a gut feeling.  I honestly have no idea what’s going to happen, that is my modest and very shaky prediction.  My plan is to take profits on trades prior to the Fed speaking then only enter end of day trades if they meet my entry criteria.

Happy Trading and best of luck.  Please feel free to post any questions or comments!

Picks for Tomorrow June 18, 2013: $JNJ, $AMZN, $DDD, $PHM

Let’s see if I can have a better day tomorrow than today!

$JNJ.  Looks to me like it just broke out of a triangle.  Oscillators are turning up and RSI is supporting the move.  I think this one is a 15min confirmation entry tomorrow bullishly.  I like this trade if it cooperates.  It has a nice RtR.

JNJ_JUNE_18_2013

 

$AMZN:  Here’s another 15min entry play.  I like this one almost as much as JNJ.  Unfortunately, it does not have as good of a RtR, but it still looks like a nice play.  First target is 282.40 and the second target is at 284. My stop is at 273.  I’d really like to see some stronger volume on this one, though.

AMZN_JUNE_18_2013

 

$DDD:  This trade looks good to me.  It just broke out of a triangle and although volume wasn’t excellent, it wasn’t all that bad.  MACD is about to turn, Stochs support the move and RSI is turning up.  If after 15min we get confirmation, I would take this trade bullishly.

DDD_JUNE_18_2013

 

$PHM:  I like this one long with a close above 21.98.  See chart below for details.  I haven’t chosen a stop yet but my target is 24.40.  Oscillators are supporting the trade.

DDD_JUNE_18_2013

 

Here are some additional stocks that may be of interest:

$AAPL  I still like it bearish on a close below 428.

$AEO: I also like bearish on a close below 18.92.

$DIS I still like the bullish trade on a close over 65.15

$HAL I like bullishly on a close over 44.00  This is 0.30 cents higher than yesterday due to today’s wick.

$JCP I still like bearish on a close below 17.11

$NFLX Looks nice for a bullish run.  15min entry on this one.

$SNDK:  just broke out of a triangle/wedge to all-time highs.  15min bullish on this one.

$Z:  Bullish after the first 15min.  Be wary of the low volume on this one.  Not sure if I would take this trade myself.

$TGT:  Looks good for a 15min bullish entry as does:

$TSLA:  I like this one with a confirming 15min entry.

Lastly, $COST I still like on a close above 112.55.  This is increased from yesterday due to today’s wick.

Good luck all.  If you have any questions, feel free to ask!