1/23/18 Market Update

Current Positions:

$AAPL: 2 February $180 calls.  Current Status: -17.9%.  Target 1:  182.13   Target 2: 189.59  Earnings:  1 February

$DIS: 25 shares.  Current Status: +0.55%. Plan: Sell at Target 1: $113.16.    Earnings: 6 Feb

$WMT: 2 March $100 calls.  Current Status: 2nd contract +81.58% Plan:  Sell at Target 2: 108.69  Earnings:  15 Feb

$WYNN: 1 February $175 calls  Current Status: +138.5%  CLOSED

New:

$C:  2 March $77.5 calls.  Current status:  +6.7% Target 1: $79.64  Target 2: $81.97  Earnings: April

$EBAY: 2 February $38 calls.  Current status: +19.3%  Target: $40.12
Earnings:  31 January

$IWM:  2 March $157 calls.  Current Status: +27.2%  Target: $162.09

$MCD:  2 February $175 calls.  Current Status: -0.74%  Target 1:  $179.06  Target 2:  $183.31 Earnings:  30 January

 

In addition to the above, I also cover: $SPY, $QQQ, $FCX, $FB $KORS, $KO $LULU, $TSLA

Videos here (parts 1 and 2)

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1/11/18

Good evening!  Interesting day in the market.  We had an early sell-off that recovered.  I see this as a mere pause in the action before charging higher.

I’m still holding $HD calls.  Nothing exciting happened today.  Had some time decay.  My stop is at $191, so I still have a dollar or so at risk before potentially getting stopped out.

Let’s take a look at some potential plays for tomorrow, my favorites being $AXP, $DIS, and $LVS.

Breaking Out:

$AXP and $JPM are both breaking out.  Personally, I like the $AXP play better than the $JPM play because $AXP has a slightly cleaner chart and more room to run, but both have good potential.  I would apply the 5min rule before getting into either of these positions.  $AXP Target 1:  $102.50  Target 2: $105.    $JPM Target 1: $111.06  Target 2: $114.69.  AXPJPM

Second Target Push

$FB and $NFLX paused yesterday, but had better days today, particularly $NFLX.  I really like the $NFLX play here assuming it satisfies the 5min rule.  My biggest concern with $NFLX is that it’s reporting earnings after market close on 22 January, so there isn’t a lot of time to let this trade breath.  In either event, assuming I got into the trade, I would set my stop at the low of today’s candle.  $FB Target 2:  $193.73  $NFLX Target 2: $222.24. FBNFLX

Still Trying to Breakout-Out

A number of stocks are still on the cusp of breaking out.  I’m keeping an eye on: $IWM, $JNJ, $PYPL and $SBUX.  Of all of these, $JNJ is probably my favorite since MACD crossed and is bullish.  A potential $10 gain for a $2.5 risk.  However, be aware that $JNJ reports earnings on 23 January.  I would not get into any of these until the last 5-15 minutes of the day with price solidly above the breakout price.PYPLSBUX.pngJNJ.pngIWM.png

Bouncing

$LVS is bouncing off of it’s 50EMA.  Stochastics are turning up, as is MACD, although MACD has yet to cross.  RSI has plenty of room to run.  It has a reward of $9 with a risk of just $1.5. Keep in mind that earnings is on 24 January.  Targets:  1:  $72.24  2:  $75.3  3:  $79.25LVS

$DIS.  This trade could easily go against you based on the technicals.  However, if the bullish trend continues as it has over the last few weeks, we could see a bounce with a nice gain.  Notice the ascending trend line that has acted as support 3 times in the past.  If it holds a fourth time, I’d be looking at a target of $113.16.  I’m not sure I would hold beyond that due to overhead resistance, but for a swing trade, there’s extremely low risk.  I would get in on the 5minute rule OR, if $DIS gaps up and comes back down to the trend line, I would enter a small position with a tight stop.  I’ll have  my eye on this one tomorrow.DIS

1/8/18 – New Year New Approach

It’s been over a year since I wrote on my blog, but one of my new year’s resolutions is to take more time studying stocks and making proper investments and trades.  Today’s blog will look at some stocks that are breaking out, others that are close to breaking out, another in a bullish continuation pattern and finally one risky, but interesting stock.  So here we go:

Breaking Out:

$FB:  $FB has broken out from it’s short term channel and is moving up.  Target 1:  188.34, Target 2:  193.73.  FB

$HD:  I see HD as a little risky as it’s been in a steady upward trend for a while now.  Not to say that it couldn’t continue, but you may want a tight stop if you’re planning on getting in.  Target1:  $193.29  Target2: $202.27.HD

$MA:  $MA had a great day on Friday and cleared through the first target of $158.25.  Since it’s already through the first target, I would consider a small position to see if it can reach target 2:  $163.12  MACD is rather flat and RSI is high as well.  Be careful here.MA

$NFLX:  Target1: $212.36, Target 2: $222.24NFLX

$FLIR:  This is probably my favorite breakout play of the 5 breaking out stocks I’ve identified since it’s been consolidating for the last few weeks.  I would wait for confirmation at the open tomorrow before entering (i.e. when looking at a daily 5min chart, ensure the we get a close ABOVE the close of the first 5min candle.  This isn’t a fool proof method, but it’s rather reliable.  Target 1: $50.67  Target 2: $53.95FLIR

Breakout Potential:

$AAPL:  $AAPL has been consolidating the last few weeks.  If it closes above $176.34, it could reach Target 1: $182.13 and Target 2:  $189.59AAPL

$IGT:  $IGT is an interesting play.  It had a strong day on Friday and while it has not broken out, it has bounced off of the 50% FIB re-tracement and is following an upward trend line.  If you’re comfortable getting in now with a tight stop below the low on Thursday, it could pay off nicely.  Or you could choose to wait until it breaks out and closes above $29.40.  Target 1:  31.30  Target  2: 33.76IGT

$SBUX:  I’m not in love with this trade since there is some resistance above Target 1: ($61.13).  Target 2 would be $62.58 SBUX

Trending:

$DAN: This stock has been in a solid up trend since July 2016 off of it’s low of $9.80.  Target 1: $34.93  Target 2: $36.75.  OR, this could be a stock you want to hold onto.   Also notice that MACD is turning up, Stochs are pointed up, as is RSI.  DAN

Risk and Reward

$VRX:  This is a pharmaceutical stock, which are typically risky by nature, $VRX being no exception.  A few years ago $VRX was ~$260 and fell over time down to $8.31.  It’s currently at $23.85.  I’m not saying it will get back to $260 and while there’s some overhead resistance to watch out for (see chart below), there is some potential for this stock to grow.  Proceed with caution, but keep it in mind.VRX