24 March Update

The markets pulled back further today after yesterday’s sell-off, but the bull-ish trend is still in tact.  I am still cautiously bullish, but there isn’t much that is catching my eye right now.

Real Account Update

$DD

Dupont seems to have broken the upward channel.  I’m a few cents away from my stop but see another opportunity to enter bullishly at $75.00 if my stop is hit.  That being said, the stock closed on it’s 100 SMA, which may prove as support.  Overall my loss will be minimal if I do get stopped out.  At this time, I have no plans to short

DD

Stocks I’m watching:

$AAPL, $LVS, $TWTR, $FSLR, $VLO.

For $AAPL, I’m still looking for the 129.50 entry.  $LVS looks like it’s rolling over.  I’m looking at a potential short trade.  Both $TWTR and $FSLR broke out today.  I am looking at potential continuation patterns.  $VLO, I am still looking for a break out before getting in long.

That’s all I have for tonight.  Happy Trading!

Picks for Tuesday, July 16: $CAT, $LULU, $FLSR

So today I am just going to take a look at 3 potential plays.  1 brackett, 1 long and 1 15min rule.  So let’s begin!

$CAT:  First off, let me thank #Tradesmartu.com for pointing out this trade.  It looks like we could go in either direction with this stock.  On the bullish side, we need a close above today’s wick as well as a close above the 200 SMA.  Target is 90.60.  Stop is TBD.  On the short side, I like a close below 84.85 and a target of 81.48.  Stop is TBD.CAT_JULY_16_2013

$LULU:  I got burned on this stock a few weeks ago, but it’s looking like a good play is setting up.  There are some long term trend lines, the 200 SMA and recent wicks I’d like to close above.  In addition, there is an ascending triangle forming which I outlined in pink.  I like a close above 66.85 with a target of 70.40.  Stop is TBD.    Notice there is a short trade as well.  That was from a few weeks ago, but it may be valid depending on how LULU behaves.  For now, I am looking at the bullish trade.LULU_JULY_16_2013

$FSLR:  Here is the 15min trade.  It looks like we just had a nice pop on increasing volume. I think FLSR is a strong play with a target of 56.30.  My stop is 48.56.  This trade has an excellent R/R if it plays out as expected.  I think I will leg into this trade with one contract and get a couple more if the trend continues.  FSLR_JULY_16_2013

That about does it.  Best of luck with all your trades.

Market Review Thursday June 27, 2013

Well here we are on one of the last days in June.  The market behaved as I expected; bullish day on relatively low volume (lower than the previous 5 days).  In addition, we failed to close over the 50SMA on both the DOW (which briefly crossed the 50 SMA) and the S&P500 which touched it but did not even cross.  So where does that leave us for tomorrow?  Well I’m not Elliot Wave Theorist, but if we do not get a close above the 50SMA tomorrow, we may be heading for a 5th wave down.  This is just an observation, but as a result, I do not plan on getting into any trades unless there is a clear bullish or clear bearish move.  All that being said, I could certainly see the bulls coming in with solid volume and lifting this market higher… but I’m not betting on it.SPY_JUNE_27_2013

REVIEW OF YESTERDAY’S PICKS:

$DECK:  Not even close to an entry.  Good not taking it short today.

$TSLA:  I did not enter, but my trigger would have been hit if I kept it on.  Let’s see if this trade pays off tomorrow.

$LOW:  You would have been triggered in.  Again, I did not get in due to the horrible week I had.  We will see how it works out tomorrow.

$BBBY:  No trade since earnings came out.

$TWC:  I know I didn’t mention this one yesterday, but I did a few days ago.  It exploded out of it’s bull flag yesterday and today.  Huge gains to be had… unfortunately, I missed it.

REAL ACCOUNT ACTIVITY:

$FSLR:  CLOSED (-15%).   Well this trade just went against me.  Can’t really say much else than that.  I do wish I had mitigated my loss a little bit better, but it failed to break out bullish… so be it.

$AAPL:  CLOSED (+7%):  Hey! Finally a green trade!  What a horrible case of the “shanks” I’ve had.  Glad to have gotten in and out.  I MAY get back in short tomorrow depending on price action, but tomorrow may just be a sideline day for me.

Picks for tomorrow coming soon.

 

 

 

Market Review June 26, 2013

Let me start by saying I got beat down in my personal account today.  It’s very frustrating, but I have no one to blame but myself.  I will get into more detail below but for now, let’s look at the market for today.  The market acted as I was expecting.  Low volume bullish day.  I think we go bullish one more day for the 50SMA.  If we break it, the bulls will be in control.  If we fail (which I think is more likely), the bearish trend will be back on.  I think we are in a bearish flag right now.  Stochs are down, MACD is a long ways from crossing upwards and volume has been declining since this little bounce.  We did, however, close above resistance of 159.69 giving slight credibility to the upward move.SPY_JUNE_26_2013

REVIEW OF YESTERDAY’S PICKS:

$FSLR:  Unfortunately you would have gotten triggered in at the top and lost, like me.

$BIDU:  You never would have gotten triggered.

$AWAY:  I’m not sure how this trade would have turned out for you.  But for me, it turned out horribly.  I did not get triggered in right at the open (I’m not sure why since my order was in before the market opened) but a few seconds later after the price spiked.

$AAPL:  You would have gotten triggered in.

REAL ACCOUNT ACTIVITY:

Enjoy the sea of red.  I think my problem right now is over-trading and not “cherry picking” my trades.

$FSLR:  OPENED (-7%) I waited and got burned.  This one did not move like I expected.  Stop is at 44.17.  Still target of 47.35.

$DECK:  CLOSED (-20%) Not much to say.  Bad trade.  I should have had my stop tighter.  I was hoping for this one to go down.  Terrible trade mentality.

$UA:  CLOSED (-33%)  See $DECK explanation.

$AWAY:  OPENED/CLOSED (-13%)  As I mentioned above, I got triggered into this trade much later than I was expecting which put me at a very unexpected deficit.  As a result, I had to move my stop up to mitigate my loss causing me to get stopped out.

$AAPL OPENED (-2%)  I bought a put right at 3:45 on the low only to see the stock float up a bit before the close.  Ultimately we did not close below my target which is worrisome.  In addition, AAPL is incredibly undersold.  We have only been lower one other time in the last 6 years.  That being said, I still like an intra-day tag down to 388.  I think tomorrow is the last shot before some sort of bounce/bear flag.

I’ll be doing some picks, but only 4.  I need to figure out what is causing me to do so horribly these last 3 days and rectify the situation.

Stock Picks for Wednesday, June 26 2013: $FSLR, $BIDU, $AWAY, $AAPL

Hi all.  Short update tonight due to the current market indecision we are facing.

$FSLR:  We had a nice rebound after testing resistance at 40.88.  I believe there is a lot of upside to this stock with a target of 47.35 (50 SMA).  Enter after the first 15min, put your stop below the low of the first 15min candle.

FSLR_JUNE_26_2013

 

$BIDU:  I still like this one short from yesterday.  We had a light volume doji today where we tested the 100SMA.  I like this one after 15min confirmation.  Target is 84.15.BIDU_JUNE_26_2013

$AWAY:  A very nice strong, proud breakout on good volume from the symmetrical triangle.  Thanks to @innov8v for pointing out this trade!  This is a market opening entry.  My stop will be below the first 15min candle once it forms.AWAY_JUNE_26_2013

$AAPL:  Lastly, I have been calling for this one and I have been ignoring my own voice.  If we had gotten in on a close below 416, we had two days to take profits.  Well, I think there is opportunity for more bearish moving.  A close below 397.75 and we should be heading towards 388.  AAPL_JUNE_26_2013

I think I may be over-trading and trying to force trades so I’m going to stick with these four for tonight.  Good luck everyone!

 

Market Overview June 24, 2013

Good afternoon everyone!  Well today was yet another bearish day.  It probably would have been worse had we not gotten a statement from the FED.  As such, that is sure to make the rest of the week very interesting.  Were these the words that will lead to a bullish reversal or was it just one afternoon of light buying to make today’s sell-off not seem as bad.  Volume was still pretty steady today as it has been over the last two sessions with some strong selling in the last 5min.  It will be interesting to see if that selling continues tomorrow or if we start to reverse.  Note that RSI still has some room to move lower as to Stochs and MACD.SPY_JUNE_24_2013

REVIEW OF YESTERDAY’S PICKS:

$AAPL:  Great 15min entry.  At the day’s low you would have been up $6.00.  At the close you would be up about $2.00

$WFC:  No entry

$DIS:  No Entry

$TWC:  No Entry

$DECK:  You would be about even on close and up a few points at the day’s bottom.  Not a great day trade.

$GS:  You would be down unless you sold at today’s lows.  Here is a note; if a stock opens up down and then has a long bearish candle and you are near your target, it is not a good idea to execute a trade.  The 15min rule assumes that you still have a good R/R ratio.

$VMW: You would have gotten triggered in at the end of the day.

$GPS: No trigger

$FSLR:  Looks like it may have found a bottom.  Keep watching!

$IBM:  Same as GS.

$VLO:  This would have been an excellent day trade.  You would have been up almost $1.00 or if you held through close you would still be up $0.50.

REAL ACCOUNT ACTIVITY:

$DECK  OPENED (-5%)  I still like the looks of this trade short (unless the market reverses.  I do not see resistance until 44.80 or so.  However, I did notice after the fact that this stock has been trading with less volume than I would like.  As a result, I am going to tighten my stop a bit above today’s high at 48.65.  I’m hoping this trade will not go against me, but it teaches me a lesson to keep a close eye on the amount of volume.

$UA:  OPENED (-13%)  This trade did not do well for me today.  I was expecting the selloff to continue but the FED came in and the market moved up.  Such is life.  My stop is at 57.40, but if the markets look strong I may tighten even further and lick my wounds.  My target to get out (hopefully on an intraday tag) is 55.05.  I have no good reason for not taking the AAPL trade other than fear and emotion.  My analysis was correct and that is the chart I spent more time on.  I should have stuck with my analysis.

Picks for tomorrow will be up soon.  Thanks for reading!

Picks for June 24, 2013: $AAPL, $WFC, $DIS, $TWC and more!

I’m going to be very quick here.  Sorry for the brief posts tonight:

$AAPL:  15min bearish entry.  First target is 400

AAPL_JUNE_24_2013

 

$WFC:  Bullish entry on close over 41.73  Thanks to Michael Zoitas @Yobronomics (http://yobronomics.com/) for pointing this trade out.

WFC_JUNE_24_2013

 

$DIS Short on a close below 61.78.

DIS_JUNE_24_2013

 

$TWC:  Looks like a bullish flag is forming.  Watch for a breakout:TWC_JUNE_24_2013

Some other potential plays:

$DECK 15min bearish

$GS 15min bearish

$VMW bearish on a close below 66.42

$GPS ascending triangle.  Enter on a close above 42.37

$FSLR watch for a bullish reversal

$IBM 15min bearish potential

$VLO 15min bearish with a target of 34.00

Goodnight, all!  I hope to have a more detailed update tomorrow.

Market Review for June 19, 2013

So Uncle Ben speaks today and the market nose dives.  Is this going to be a new trend?  Well to be honest, I have no idea where we go from here, but I’d like to think we’ll have a direction chosen by the end of the week.  I thought we would have been green this morning, but stocks started out rather flat and the DOW was down around 30 points prior to the Fed speaking.  That being said, I wasn’t surprised at how the market reacted after the meeting.  Unfortunately, I had some sort of lapse of judgement and got into a horrible position that I will discuss later on, but first, let’s look at SPY.

We are back into that triangle, but we do have support on the lower trend line which we could hit tomorrow or Friday.  In addition, we have both the 50 EMA and SMA to contend with that just happen to be sitting at that lower trend line.  As a result, I think the rest of the week will be down and that is where we bounce to go higher.  However, if we break through, well then the bearish move will still be on:

SPY_JUNE_19_2013

REAL POSITIONS

$JNJ:  CLOSED -6%  I knew that I needed to move my stop up to prevent any damaging losses and I’m very happy that I did.  I was around even at one point today, so I trailed my stop up.  I’m very thankful I had the foresight to do so.  After I was stopped out, the stock plunged down over a dollar.  I only wish that I had bought puts, but it wasn’t part of my plan so I did not do it.  Not a bad loss (I only had 2 contracts), but it could have been a better trade.

$FCX:  HOLDING  I am finally up 3% on this miserable trade.  My target is still 29.00 and I am holding true to that.  I will probably be up around 10% after commission if my target is reached.  I am happy that I have stuck through this trade.  

$JPM: ENTERED at 54.20.  I am furious with myself over this trade.  I got into this on pure speculation.  It was emotional, a gamble and not part of my trading plan.  For some reason, I had a feeling that financials were going to benefit from the Fed talk, so I bought 2 JPM contracts on a whim.  Stupid horrible idea.  I am down about 15% on the trade so far. Seeing as I believe the market is going to continue down and my contracts expire in August, I MAY hold my calls and I MAY play puts tomorrow assuming that the market and stock move that way.  I do see the 20 EMA as providing support for this stock, so I need to be careful.  I don’t want to get burned doubly.  I will have to wait and see how the market is going to open tomorrow.  I’d like to salvage this trade, but it may be wiser to just close my position and take advantage at a different and better time.  Simply awful.  To be honest, this one angers me more than the $VZ trade.  The $VZ trade was a pure accident, this was just buffoonery and greed.  

REVIEW OF YESTERDAY’S PICKS:

$FSLR:  Would have been a nice day trade short, but since I was playing closes, you would have gotten triggered in on the aggressive position but not the conservative one. 

$AEO:  You would have gotten triggered.  Would need to wait until tomorrow to see how that pans out.

$AAPL:  While you would have gotten triggered, I would not have take this one since it is getting very close to the next support line of 416.

$SLV:  Triggered.  I was so distracted by that JPM trade I totally missed this one.  Very disappointing!  I’m going to have to turn this into a “first 15min” trade tomorrow.

Nothing else looks like it would have triggered.

Stock picks up soon!

 

Picks for tomorrow, June 19, 2013: $DDD, $DIS, $FSLR, $HD

Well as I mentioned yesterday, I don’t plan on taking any addition positions until after the Fed speaks, so that we get some sort of idea of a direction.  With that in mind, all entries will be in the last 15min of the trading day tomorrow.  Let’s get started:

$DDD:  The entry I like is a close above 48.90.  The trend is looking bullish and despite the down day today, I believe the trend is still in tact.  However, as I’ve been saying about a lot of stocks lately, I’d like to see volume increase with a bullish move.DDD_JUNE_19_2013

 

$DIS:  This is a trade I would have gotten into at the end of today had it not been for the FED tomorrow.  That being said, as lon gas we don’t get a huge move up, I would enter long given that we close above today’s high.DIS_JUNE_19_2013

$FSLR:  This one is interesting.  It is in some sort of pennant/flag pattern as volume has declined steadily for the duration of the pattern.  I believe this is a bearish pattern, but time will tell.  Therefore, I have a number of entries.  Conservatively on the bearish side, I like an entry with a close of 44.30.  A more aggressive bearish entry is a close below 45.50.  On the bullish side, I like an entry of 46.80.  Again, these are all end of day closes in order to make an entry, but I would expect a breakout in either direction tomorrow.FSLR_JUNE_19_2013

$HD.  Well I got burned on this stock last week, but I think it has the signs of turning bullish.  I like entering this one on a close above 75.55.HD_JUNE_19_2013

Here are some other trades I’m looking at:

$AEO:  Same entry as yesterday

$AAPL: Same entry as yesterday

$COST:  Same as yesterday

$HAL:  Get in on close above today’s high.

$XOM:  Watch for a bullish entry

$JCP:  Same entry as yesterday

$LOW:  Entry of 41.88

$PHM: Same entry as yesterday

$SLV:  Close below 20.72

$UA:  Watch the bracket trade

$WMT:  Entry with a close above 76.25.

Keep a very close eye on these two; WLT is close to it’s all time lows.  It is in some sort of downward triangle that may breakout soon.  In addition, it just formed a morning star reversal pattern on huge volume.  If it breaks out of that triangle, it may be worth writing some puts and/or buying some calls.

Next is BBRY which is in a long term symmetrical triangle.  Watch for a breakout!

 

That about wraps it up.  I will be cautious tomorrow.  I’d like to see a bullish trend resume as there are a lot of great setups forming, but we’ll see what happens tomorrow.  Good luck, all!

 

Picks for June 17, 2013: $VZ, $AAPL, $DD, $DIS, $FSLR, $HAL, $JCP, $UA

Here we are on the eve of a market on the verge of a breakout (we hope) in either direction.  The hope is that a trend forms so that we can choose a direction.  Let’s see what’s in the works for Monday:

$VZ:  This on looks like it’s on the verge or just beginning a bullish move.  I like a 15min entry on Monday as long as the price movement supports the bullish move.  My targets are  52.37 and 53.58.  Stop is at 50.14.  This is about a 3:1 move at the ultimate target.  Oscillators support the move, but volume has been declining.  Hopefully we get some strong volume tomorrow.

VZ_JUNE_17_2013

$AAPL:  This one looks good bearishly on a close below 428.  The first target would be 416.63; ultimately we could get back to $383.00.  I would not take this bearish trade unless we close strongly below 428 with supporting volume.  Fortunately, oscillators are supporting the bearish move.  Let’s see what Monday brings:

AAPL_JUNE_17_2013

$DD:  This one is a good candidate for a 15min short.  We close well below my entry point of 53.38 on strong volume.  Oscillators are supporting the bearish move.  I think we are good to go down to 51.60 and then 50.90.  Where you place your stop is where you will determine your Risk to Reward (RtR).  As for me, I would put my stop above the 50 EMA.  This gives us a RtR of only 1:1 which is unfortunate.  Based on this, I would probably not take the trade, but if you are a day trader, you may be interested in this one.

DD_JUNE_17_2013

$DIS:  I really like this bracketed trade.  Bullishly, I’d want a close above 65.15.  Bearishly, I’d like a close below 61.98.  Personally, I’d rather see a bullish breakout since it is the path of least resistance.  Notice that volume has been decreasing, which I think will (or should) foreshadow a breakout with solid volume.  Lastly, oscillators are moving bullish, hopefully supporting a bullish breakout.

DIS_JUNE_17_2013

$FSLR:  While I’d be a little careful of a reversal, I think everything is confirming a bearish trend here.  I like a bounce off of 40.90.  Enter this one after the first 15min if price confirms the direction.  Put your stop at least 46.50.

FSLR_JUNE_17_2013

$HAL:  I like an entry on a close above 43.70.  Oscillators are starting to turn upward, but I’d like to see a close over that price level on strong volume to confirm the trend.  Let’s see what happens if/when we get that close.

HAL_JUNE_17_2013

$JCP:  We are approaching a level that I’ve been eyeing for a few weeks now.  If we get a close below 17.11, I am taking this trade bearish down to a target of 15.90.  Oscillators are supporting the move, but I would like to see volume support the move down.  I’m definitely keeping an eye on this one.

JCP_JUNE_17_2013

$UA:  Here is another bracketed trade set-up.  We could be finding support for a bullish reversal, or we may break that support and head low.  Bullishly, I like a close above 60.96 and bearishly I like a close below 58.40.

UA_JUNE_17_2013

Although not posted, keep an eye on the following:

COST: Neutral, but close to choosing a direction.

VALE: Short

AEO:  Short

NKE: breakout from triangle

That about wraps up my picks for tomorrow.  I hope you guys have good luck if you choose to entertain any of these choices.  Just ensure you do your own due diligence before taking any real money trades.  Good night!