Picks for July 5, 2013: $UA, $MCD, $XONE, $LULU, $AXP, $TLT, $GOOG

Happy 4th everyone!  With a half day of trading yesterday, the market has some time to “marinate” and hopefully make an indication of which direction it is going to take.  So let’s begin with some picks:

$UA:  I believe this stock is very strong.  A close above 60.96 looks to be a great long entry point.  However, if you want to be aggressive and believe we are going higher, you can enter on a 15min indication.  Indicators are pointing up, but I would ideally like to see volume increase on the bullish move.  UA_JULY_5_2013

$MCD:  It looks like we are breaking out of a short term bearish channel.  You may want to wait for a close above 100.55 or if you want to be more aggressive, you could take a 15min bullish trade.  Target is 102.75.MCD_JULY_5_2013

$XONE:  It looks like this bubble is bursting.  Notice the speed lines I drew.  The most recent line prior to yesterday’s drop is almost vertical.  I think this has a ways to drop.  My target is $53.45 or the speed line I highlighted.  Moreover, yesterday’s candle was a bullish-engulfing candle.  My stop will go above the first 15min candle.  This is definitely a 15min entry.XONE_JULY_5_2013


$LULU:  Bracket trade here:  I think the stronger probability is a bearish trade, but the bulls can still win out.  Bearish I like an entry of 63.80 with target of 61.60 and 59.65.  On the bullish side I like an entry of 66.85 and a target of 70.40.LULU_JULY_5_2013


$AXP:  What the heck, I’ll do one more since it’s a holiday.  AXP also looks like a bracket set-up.  Bearish entry is a close below 72.90 with a target of 70.45.  Bullish, I like an entry of 76.30 with a target of 78.20.AXP_JULY_5_2013

A couple of other little bonuses:

$TLT: I still like this short with a target of 107.78.  15min entry.

$GOOG:  I still like our entry of 895. with a target of 920.

Enjoy the rest of your holiday and happy trading!


Market Recap July 3, 2013

Happy Independence Day, Everyone!!

As we know, today was a half day of trading.  Taking that into account, it looks like volume was on par with yesterday’s action in the overall market.  However, we once again failed the 50 MA.  I’m not sure if or when we will break it, but I truly wish the market would pick a direction and get back into a trend.  Although it’s been true for over a week, it’s very obvious that we are range bound by the 50 and 100 SMAs.  Notice that Stochs are turning up as is MACD.  This could be an early signal that the bulls are ready to take control.  But as always, only time will tell.  I have re-assessed my analysis with a more defined bracket trade.  Currently, we look to be in a downward expanding triangle.  A break out of this trend (and subsequently a break above the 50 SMA) should send us higher.  A break below the 100 should keep this short term bearish trend in tact.  SPY_JULY_3_2013


$TLT:  You would have gotten triggered in bearish on the 15min rule finishing the day up $0.17.

$COST:  No Trigger

$UA:  No trigger, but it looks like Friday could be a good entry.

$GOOG: No trigger, but keep an eye on this one.  That bottom trend line looks strong.


$POT:  HOLDING (-22%)  I see now that I probably went short right at support.  It’s all in the perspective of how you draw your trend lines.  I should have used the wick from the candle on 11/26.  Although percentage wise I’m down considerably, I am not down much monetarily.  My stop is remaining in place.  If I get stopped out on Friday, then so be it.

That wraps things up for tonight.  I hope to have some picks up tomorrow.  Again, wishing everyone a safe, fun, happy 4th!

Picks for Tomorrow July 3, 2013: $TLT, $COST, $UA, $GOOG

**Please note that the market closes at 1:00PM EST tomorrow.**

$TLT:  This is a bit of a risky trade in the sense that confirmation isn’t strong, but very low risk given your R/R ratio.  I think we will bounce off of that upper trendline down to around 107.82.  Although oscillators are turning up, it looks like we are in a bearish flag on declining volume.  So those are the major points of this trade.  I like this one on a 15min entry bearish.

$COST:  I have been watching this one for a while and I like it long on a close above 112.55.  Target is 115.40.COST_JULY_2_2013

$UA:  I like this one long as well on a close above 60.96.  I would really like to see volume pick up if we close above that entry point to confirm the trade.  I think this has a lot of upside with a target of 65.50.UA_JULY_3_2013


$GOOG:  The mighty Google.  Is it’s bullish run over?  It could be, but I think it has legs to run long if it breaks above 895.  Target is 920.  Notice that this would be an entry above a horizontal resistance and a short term downward trend line.  Stop is TBD.GOOG_JULY_3_2013

That’s about all for now.  Keep an eye and best of luck with all of your trades!

Market Overview for Friday June 14, 2013

Good evening everyone!  It looks like the market may have pulled a “gotcha” today.  We started out bullishly enough but as the day wore on, a slow sell off ensued.  With today’s candle, a clear triangle is being formed on $SPY (this is also true on $SPX and $DJIA and $DIA).  Which way this thing will break is anyone’s guess, but the oscillators MAY be giving a preview.  First, let’s look at volume.  It was very low today and generally has been decreasing ever since the pop from 5/22.  Oscillators are all bearish aside from stochastics which just crossed and are pointed upward.  Since the EMAs are getting tangled together, it may be possible that stochs iare giving an early indicator that the move will be bullish.  This is just speculation and absolutely not something we should be taking a trade based off of.  I think a trend will form once we break north of 165.40 or south of 159.72.


Real Trades:

I did not enter any trades today.  However, I am still holding FCX.  Why?  Well it’s due to dumb luck because I had intended to move my stop to $30.20 this morning, but when I checked my account I had never actually hit the “submit” button to confirm the trigger.  As a result I saved myself from getting stopped out too soon.  Looking at the chart again, I should have put my stop above the open from the candle on 6/11 if I was going to move it anywhere.  This is a good lesson learned for me on where to place my stops but to also be more careful when I enter trades and triggers on my broker account.  All that being said, I’m not crazy about this trade anymore.  I’d love for it to slide down to the low of 6/13 I’ll take a tiny profit and move on to the next trade.  For now, though I am going to place my stop at 30.35 and leave it at that.  FCX_JUNE_14_2013


Results from Yesterday’s Picks:

$COST would not have triggered.  $GOOG would not have triggered and $DE would not have triggered.  No action, but sometimes that’s how it goes.  Better not not get into a trade than violate your trade plan or get into an emotional trade.  Speaking of trade plans, while I have one in my head, it’s been brought to my attention that I should write it down.  I plan on writing up a page on this blog with my plan this weekend.  Stay tuned!

Enjoy your weekend, everyone.  I will be posting my picks for next week on Sunday afternoon/evening.

Stock Picks for June 14, 2013: $COST, $DE, $GOOG

Due to time constraints, I’m just going to give a brief explanation for my picks.  Let’s begin.

$COST.  I like this one as a bracket trade.  It is in some sort of a wedge-ish pattern.  Time will tell which direction it takes.



$DE looks good with a close below 83.62.  DE_JUNE_14_2013


GOOG Looks good for a bullish run.  If you like to day trade, you do a 15min entry or wait for a close above 897.75.  Waiting for that close should confirm MACD crossing bullish.  My target is 920.



Sorry for the lack of detailed update.  Good luck all and Happy Friday!