Picks for Thursday July 11, 2013: $DDD, $DIS, $GS, $HES

Here are my picks for tomorrow.  Just a quick note that futures are up quite a bit after hours.  Let’s see if that holds into tomorrow.

$DDD:  I like a long entry on a close above 48.75.  Targets are 50.98 and 51.87.  Stop is TBD.  MACD and Stochs are supporting a bullish move.DDD_JULY_11_2013

$DIS:  Here is a bracket trade; similar to the one posted a few days ago.  I like a long entry of 65.60 with a target of 67.88.  A shot entry of 63.75 with a target of 62.00.  Stop TBD.DIS_JULY_11_2013

$GS:  I like a long entry on a close above 157.60.  Targets are 160.80 and 165.65.  Stop TBD.GS_JULY_11_2013

$HES:  I like a long entry on a close above 69.05 with a target of 72.40.  My stop is TBD.HES_JULY_11_2013

Keep an eye on some stock picks from yesterday:

$DMND

$COST

$CELG

There you are.  Good luck to everyone.

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Another Day Another Doji; Market Review for July 2, 2013

Another day, another doji and another failed attempt at cracking the 50 SMA.  I’m not entirely sure what this means other than the fact that doji’s represent market uncertainty.  Could we be forming some sort of bearish flag?  I think it’s definitely possible as volume continues to decrease, but curiously, the oscillators are ticking upward.  MACD has almost crossed while Stochs have already crossed.  It’s very interesting where we may end up from here.  One thing to keep in mind tomorrow is that we only have a half day of trading.  Markets close at 1:00PM EST and then resume on Friday.  I can’t see us breaking the 50 on a half day.  I think we will just meander tomorrow and leave the move for Friday or maybe more probable; Monday.  Personally, I am still looking at a bearish break out, but time will tell.  SPY_JULY_2_2013

REVIEW OF YESTERDAY’S PICKS

$BBY:  This stock sunk like a rock today.  Fortunately, you never would have been triggered in bullishly.  Today looks like a tweezer top.  I’m not sure what this thing is going to do.  I’ll leave it be for now.

$WYNN:  WYNN you would have gotten triggered in at the end of the day.  I did not get in due to being so close to my first target of 125.  A close below it and I would go short down to 121.

$GS:  You would not have gotten triggered in at the end of the day.

$GPS:  You would have gotten in and then stopped out.

REAL ACCOUNT ACTIVITY:

$POT:  HOLDING (-7%)  I am sticking with my stop of 38.30.  

$GPS:  OPENED/CLOSED (-15%)  I only bought 1 contract so this loss was really pennies to my account.  I’m not sure if my stop was too tight, but we’ll see within a few days if it was in a good position or if I should have kept it lower.

 

Stock Picks for July 2, 2013: $BBY, $WYNN, $GS, $GPS

Let’s get right to it…

$BBY:  This stock broke out of a Bollinger Band with solid volume.  In addition, we are above the moving averages, oscillators are turning up, and RSI is at a healthy level.  I’m planning on getting in after the first 15min.  Now, please be warned, I am not experienced with Fibonacci retracements or extensions, but here is my crack at it.  I see a target of 31.61 and I plan on putting my stop below the first 15min candle. BBY_JULY_2_2013

$WYNN:  I believe we are in the midst of a bullish flag.  Note that volume has been declining.  I like getting in short on a close below 127.30.  My first target is 125 while the second is 121.77.  Stop is TBD.WYNN_JULY_2_2013

$GS:  This one seems to be shaping up into a sort of pennant.  I like this one short on a close below 150.70.  Target is 146.35.  I know we could also break bullish, but in that case we would already have to break above the 50 SMA.  We’ll see where we close, but right now my focus is on a bearish move.  Notice that volume has been decreasing in this pennant.  GS_JULY_2_2013

$GPS:  Last but not least, we have $GPS.  Interestingly, this is setting up very similar to BBY.  However, the volume was not as strong, so I’m not as convinced about this one, but it’s certainly worth keeping an eye on.  Again, I made an attempt at a fibonacci extension, so my first target is 44.60.  My stop will be below the first 15min candle.  Please let me know if you have any questions or comments on the fib lines that I drew.  GPS_JULY_2_2013

That about wraps it up.  Good night all, and as always, good luck!

Market Review June 25, 2013

Today’s action showed a rebound from yesterday’s doji candle.  Despite closing below the 100 SMA yesterday, we closed back above it today despite weak volume.  I believe a close above today’s wick means we will fight against the 50 SMA.  Above that and we could be out of this short term bearish trend.  That being said, we could always be forming some sort of bearish flag/pennant pattern on declining volume that will ultimately take us lower.  Notice that intersecting trend line I drew (yesterday’s candle broke it briefly.  I’m not sure how “real” that line is, but it is interesting for a different perspective.  Personally, I believe tomorrow will be a moderately bullish day but on even lower volume.  But hey, nothing says we can’t trade down to Monday’s lows.

SPY_JUNE_25_2013

REVIEW OF YESTERDAY’s PICKS:

$BIDU:  We did not open down so you would not have taken this trade.  If you did take the trade, you would have needed to recognize the double bottom that formed between 10:30 and 11:00.  Otherwise this trade would not have been profitable… yet.  I still believe BIDU is heading south.

$JNJ:  If you took this trade, you would have made a few pennies on it.  I believe JNJ is a strong stock that is going higher.

$CAT:  We did not open down, so you would not have take this trade.

$VLO:  You would not have been triggered in.

$AEO: You would not have been triggered in.

$AXP: You would not have been triggered in.

$FCX:  We did not open down.  No trade.

$TWC: No break out.  I’m surprised we were down on a bullish market day.  Does not speak well for a breakout.  Volume was moderately strong as well.

$GS:  You would not have been triggered in; we did not open down.

$T:  You would not have been triggered in.

$FSLR:  This would have been a good trade to jump into at the open.

I’ll be honest, I was expecting a bullish day, and the market definitely tricked me.  That being said, it’s important to maintain your stops so you don’t get caught with your proverbial pants down like I just did as you will see below…

REAL ACCOUNT ACTIVITY:

$DECK HOLDING (-15%):  We bounced and I was not expecting it.  Stubbornly I held.  My stop is at 48.75.  I’d like to see a down day tomorrow, but I think I will have to take my medicine and my stop will be hit.  These types of losses are not good for my account.  I need to learn to minimize them better.

$UA HOLDING (-24%):  This is even worse of a play than DECK.  This is just stubborn emotional trading.  I could have minimized my risk and lived to see another day.  Now I am hoping for a down day to recoup some losses.  Not a smart way to trade, and I know it.  My stop is at 58.07.  Again, I can’t afford to be taking these types of losses.  I either need to hedge or cut out sooner.

I’m hoping for a more cheerful day tomorrow.  Stay tuned for my picks for tomorrow.

Stock Picks for June 25, 2013: $BIDU, $JNJ, $CAT, $VLO

Tomorrow is a new day.  Only account gains tomorrow! 🙂

I’ll provide one long play, but the rest of my plays are still short.  Personally, I think tomorrow is going to be a mixed bag for stocks.  That being said, let’s see if the market cooperates:

$BIDU:  This guy looks ripe for the shorting regardless of what the market is doing.  Overall we are in a major downtrend, price just got below all of the MAs, oscillators support and volume, while not huge, supports the bearish move.  This is a 15min entry for me tomorrow.  84.15 is my target:BIDU_JUNE_25_2013

$JNJ:  Here is the bullish trade.  JNJ is a strong stock, not overly affected by this recent downward move.  In addition, it actually had an up day today while mostly everything else was down.  It would be nice to see the market support the move, but we definitely need a close above today’s wick and the 50MA.  For an aggressive play, get in on a close above 85.35 or more conservatively on a close above 86.54.JNJ_JUNE_25_2013

$CAT:  I have been waiting for a close below support for a while on this one and it finally happened today.  I missed getting in, but this ought to be a good 15min rule entry.  We are in a medium term downtrend and I think it can continue to at least a target of 80.10.CAT_JUNE_25_2013

$VLO:  Lastly we have VLO which was good to me on Friday.  I probably should have held onto it, but hindsight is 20/20.  Looking at it now, if we break below 33.20, I don’t see much support until 29.60.  Looking for that close to take advantage of this trade:VLO_JUNE_25_2013

Some other ideas for tomorrow:

$AEO 15min bear.  Target of 17.00

$AXP 15min bear.  Target of 70.45

$FCX 15min bear.  Target of 25.87

$TWC:  Keep watching for a breakout out of this bullish flag.

$GS: 15min bear.  Target of 147.72

$T:  Bearish with a close below 34.70.  Target of 33.63.

$FSLR:  Pure speculation play.  Obama will be talking about renewable energy in a positive light so this may be a good long play.

Goodnight all, and good luck!

Market Overview June 24, 2013

Good afternoon everyone!  Well today was yet another bearish day.  It probably would have been worse had we not gotten a statement from the FED.  As such, that is sure to make the rest of the week very interesting.  Were these the words that will lead to a bullish reversal or was it just one afternoon of light buying to make today’s sell-off not seem as bad.  Volume was still pretty steady today as it has been over the last two sessions with some strong selling in the last 5min.  It will be interesting to see if that selling continues tomorrow or if we start to reverse.  Note that RSI still has some room to move lower as to Stochs and MACD.SPY_JUNE_24_2013

REVIEW OF YESTERDAY’S PICKS:

$AAPL:  Great 15min entry.  At the day’s low you would have been up $6.00.  At the close you would be up about $2.00

$WFC:  No entry

$DIS:  No Entry

$TWC:  No Entry

$DECK:  You would be about even on close and up a few points at the day’s bottom.  Not a great day trade.

$GS:  You would be down unless you sold at today’s lows.  Here is a note; if a stock opens up down and then has a long bearish candle and you are near your target, it is not a good idea to execute a trade.  The 15min rule assumes that you still have a good R/R ratio.

$VMW: You would have gotten triggered in at the end of the day.

$GPS: No trigger

$FSLR:  Looks like it may have found a bottom.  Keep watching!

$IBM:  Same as GS.

$VLO:  This would have been an excellent day trade.  You would have been up almost $1.00 or if you held through close you would still be up $0.50.

REAL ACCOUNT ACTIVITY:

$DECK  OPENED (-5%)  I still like the looks of this trade short (unless the market reverses.  I do not see resistance until 44.80 or so.  However, I did notice after the fact that this stock has been trading with less volume than I would like.  As a result, I am going to tighten my stop a bit above today’s high at 48.65.  I’m hoping this trade will not go against me, but it teaches me a lesson to keep a close eye on the amount of volume.

$UA:  OPENED (-13%)  This trade did not do well for me today.  I was expecting the selloff to continue but the FED came in and the market moved up.  Such is life.  My stop is at 57.40, but if the markets look strong I may tighten even further and lick my wounds.  My target to get out (hopefully on an intraday tag) is 55.05.  I have no good reason for not taking the AAPL trade other than fear and emotion.  My analysis was correct and that is the chart I spent more time on.  I should have stuck with my analysis.

Picks for tomorrow will be up soon.  Thanks for reading!

Picks for June 24, 2013: $AAPL, $WFC, $DIS, $TWC and more!

I’m going to be very quick here.  Sorry for the brief posts tonight:

$AAPL:  15min bearish entry.  First target is 400

AAPL_JUNE_24_2013

 

$WFC:  Bullish entry on close over 41.73  Thanks to Michael Zoitas @Yobronomics (http://yobronomics.com/) for pointing this trade out.

WFC_JUNE_24_2013

 

$DIS Short on a close below 61.78.

DIS_JUNE_24_2013

 

$TWC:  Looks like a bullish flag is forming.  Watch for a breakout:TWC_JUNE_24_2013

Some other potential plays:

$DECK 15min bearish

$GS 15min bearish

$VMW bearish on a close below 66.42

$GPS ascending triangle.  Enter on a close above 42.37

$FSLR watch for a bullish reversal

$IBM 15min bearish potential

$VLO 15min bearish with a target of 34.00

Goodnight, all!  I hope to have a more detailed update tomorrow.

Market Recap June 12, 2013. Interesting Day!

What an interesting day on the street today (even if not all that surprising).  You’d think that the bears are completely in control right now, but I do not endorse that notion just yet.  Tomorrow is going to be a day (I hope) where a direction is chosen.  Aside from sideways, (which is always possible) we are either going to bounce off of this short term double bottom and resume the bullish run OR we are going to break through support (see $SPX chart below) and the bears will be in town.  I like a close below 1596 on the SPX for a confirmation of the bears.  Despite oscillators being bearish, my gut tells me that we are going to get a bounce, but my gut does not drive the market. Therefore, I will be waiting and watching patiently to see what the market decides to do.SPX_JUNE_12_2013

Real Positions:

I got crushed on HD; stopped out for a 10% loss.  This is incredibly disappointing because I was up 26% on Monday and did not take profits even though my target was reached.  The market looked like it was off to a strong start so I just let it go.  Then on Tuesday I had a chance to take a 15% return, but refused because I wanted to get back to 26% and again today I had a chance for a 10% return but refused which ultimately landed me with a 10% loss.  Very disappointing, but a very good lesson learned:  Stick to your trading plan and take profits at your target or worse case, move your stop up to your target if you are over.  Learning when to let my profits run and when to take profits is a struggle for me right now, but I’m sure it is something I will develop as I grow and gain more knowledge and experience.

That being said, my $FCX trade triggered today.  I bought 3 August calls, of which I plan to sell (or at least move my stop) at $29.00 for a quick profit.  I will not play around with this trade like I did with $HD.

Let’s look at my picks from yesterday:

$Z would have been an excellent entry after 15min. You may still still be holding and trade down to the 100 MA

$GS short would have been excellent as well

$AXP Ditto

$SLV you would not have gotten triggered in because it was not below the entry price

$CAT you also would not have gotten triggered

$LNKD would not have triggered.  In addition, notice how we stopped right above the 100 MA.  It will be interesting to see if we bounce or keep on going down.

$FCX You would have gotten triggered in.  Let’s see how this trade plays out.

$PHM would really have been your call on getting in or not.  Waiting for a close below support would be the best idea, though.

Picks for tomorrow coming soon!

Picks for June 12, 2013 $FCX, $LNKD and $PHM

Hi all!  There are a number of stocks that could be solid plays for tomorrow.  I’ll list them, but will only go into detail on 3 due to time constraints.  Here is a small list of stocks to keep an eye on:

$Z 15min bearish entry

$GS 15min bearish entry

$AXP 15min bearish entry

$SLV same short entry as yesterday

$CAT entry below 82.56

Of these 4, $Z is my favorite for a 15min entry and SLV is still looking nice with a close below 20.72.

Now, here are 3 with a bit more detail:

$LNKD:  When I first looked at this chart, I was in love with shorting it.  However, I’m now noticing that the oscillators are starting to turn bullish.  That being said, I am waiting for a close below 164.92, so as we approach that entry, there is time for oscillators to turn back bearish.  There are three targets.  Starting from closest target to furthest: 159.94, 154.68, 140.35.  I will choose a stop as we get closer to the entry.LNKD_JUNE_12_2013

FCX:  FCX had pretty strong volume today.  It’s possible that the bulls may turn this one back north due to the doji candle today, but I like a bearish entry with a close below 29.93.  See chart for trade setup:FCX_JUNE_12_2013

$PHM:  Lastly is PHM.  To be honest, I’m not sure if this one is a good 15min entry or a close below entry.  Right now I have it as a 15min entry, but we are bumping into support over the past 5 days, so it may be more wise to wait for a close.  At any rate, oscillators are supporting a bearish move.  I like this one down to the 200 MA or to 18.81.

PHM_JUNE_12_2013Have a good night, all.  Happy Trading!