Market Review from June 21, 2013

Hello everyone.  Hope you all are having a great weekend so far.  Mine has been quite busy, but I’m finally ready to get this update posted, so let’s go!

What a wild day on Friday!  From a green open to a faded gap and then back and forth from there.  We ended up closing in the green, but only by 41 points on the DOW.  Volume  was very strong (even stronger than Thursday) as we kissed the 100 SMA on $SPY and just missed touching it on the DOW.  The candle from yesterday was a doji on both indicies which COULD signify a reversal back bullishly.  However, MACD and Stochs are still bearish so I would not just assume that we are heading back up until we get some sort of confirmation.  Ideally I’d like to see a close above 1600 on the S&P which would give me some moderate confirmation of a bullish reversal.  Time will tell, but there should be plenty of good trade setups on Monday and the rest of the week.  See chart below of $SPY:SPX_JUNE_21_2013


$DE:  You would have gotten triggered in at 82.89 and could have gotten out at 81.75 for over a dollar move.  If you held for the day, you’d have been up 0.42 cents.  Great trade!

$DIS:  Well it is possible that you could have gotten triggered into this trade, but to me it just didn’t feel right.  I would not have taken this trade.  If you did get in, you would have gotten in at 62.30.  You could have gone up about 0.40 cents if you sold at the day’s low, but realizing we were at the low of the day would have been very difficult, unless you were trailing your stop, then you may have broken even.  If you held for the day you would have lost 0.43 cents.  Not a good trade.

$FDX we did not close below the target so no trade would have been triggered.

$UA:  I wanted to get into this trade, but we were down so big so early, I was a little afraid of it so I stayed out.  Had you gotten in, you would have been triggered at 56.85.  Selling at the low of the day would have given you 0.59 cents.  Holding till the end of the day would have put you down 0.03 cents.  Not a great trade.  You could have made some money if you trailed your stop.

$JPM would not have worked out

$AAPL you would have gotten triggered in.  I did not get in, but I am seriously considering it on Monday with 15min confirmation.

$BIDU you would not have gotten triggered

$CSX you would have gotten triggered in at the end of the day.  I wish I had taken this trade, but I was not at the computer at the end of the day.

$FCX: you would not have been triggered into this trade

$HAL: You would not have been triggered into this trade.

$IBM:  This is another trade I would have liked to have legged into.

$O:  You would have gotten triggered in.  Profits on low of the day, still a small profit if still holding at the end of the day.

$VLO:  Great day trade.  I took this one.  I’ll cover it in the next section

$DVY:  You would have gotten triggered in.  Profit if sold at low of the day, would have lost if held until close.


$JPM  CLOSED (37% LOSS)  OUCH!  This was a really stupid trade from the beginning since I got in on a whim and then I did not manage my loss.  However, this is a perfect trade to learn from, and believe me, I will learn going forward.

$VLO OPENED+CLOSED (+24% ROI)  I was watching this stock in the AM and was able to get in after I saw the stair step forming between 10:00 and 10:10.  I was able to get out after the tweezer bottom formed.  I am very proud of myself for recognizing when to get in and out of this trade.  One of the best trades I’ve done in my short career.  I’m hopeful for more in the coming days and weeks.  I feel like my analysis is getting stronger, but time will tell!

Picks and observations coming up tomorrow.  Goodnight all and GO BRUINS! 🙂


Picks and Predictions for June 21, 2013: $DE, $DIS, $FDX, $UA

BEAR, SHORT.  Those are two words I will be using quite a bit to describe my picks tonight.  Let’s get started, shall we?

DE:  I like this one as a 15 minute entry, short.  ADX is turning up.  We are below all MAs and oscillators support the move.  Volume wasn’t enormous today, but higher than the past few weeks.  83.62 was my original entry point, so if you are already in, great!  Target is 81.60.DE_June_21_2013

DIS:  We close below my entry by one measly penny today!  If you are not in, then after the first 15min, get in (with confirmation).  My stop would be at 63.74 and the first target is the 100 SMA.  The second target is 57.82.  This trade provides a 2:1 R/R ratio.DIS_JUNE_21_2013

$FDX:  This guy had a big down day today.  Unfortunately he’s sitting right above his 200 SMA.  I would like to see a close below 95.10.  My stop would be above the 200 SMA with my first target at 93.18 and the second target at 92.35.FDX_JUNE_21_2013

UA:  I see huge upside with this trade.  15min entry bearish.  Oscillators support and we are below all of the MAs.  Volume could have been better, but I still like the trade.  Target is 54.71.  Stop is at 59.32.  This is a 3:1 R/R ratio trade.UA_JUNE_21_2013

Here are a couple extra stock to look at:

$JPM 15min short

$AAPL short on a close under 416

$BIDU short on a close below 92.00

$CSX short on a close below 23.75

$FCX short on a close below 27.20

$HAL short on a close below 41.30

$IBM short on a close below 196.00

$O 15min short.

$VLO 15min short

$DVY 15min short.

Happy trading, all!

Look Out Below! Market Review of June 20, 2013

As we know, the Fed spoke yesterday and spooked the markets.  Well, today was just a continuation of that spooking.  Down we went loosing more than 350 points on the day.  Unreal!  Hopefully you guys had some short positions to take advantage of today’s action.  Unfortunately for me, I was not as lucky as I would have liked to have been, but I’ll get to that later.

Let’s take a look at where the SPY ended up today.  We are well below the triangle that was forming for the last month or so.  In addition, oscillators are turning back over bearish and ADX just ticked upward, indicating that it’s starting to like this new bearish move.  All that being said, we could always fail the bearish move and bounce tomorrow (although I wouldn’t bet on it).  Lastly, volume was large today, also helping confirm the bearish move.  Personally, I think we wait for 15min confirmation tomorrow for the continued bearish move and then start to get into some short positions.  The next point of resistance is the 100 SMA which is about 2 points away from where we currently sit.  This gives us some good opportunity to make some trades before a decision is made on continuing lower or bouncing from there.



SLV: We missed the majority of the move, unfortunately, but we could have still gotten some profits for about a 0.20 move.

NFLX:  No trigger

TGT:  No trigger

BBY:  No Trigger (just barely)

DDD: If you get triggered in, you made about 0.61 cents

AEO: wasn’t worth getting in.

HD: you would have been triggered in and made about 0.85 cents.

JPM:  you would have been triggered in and made about 12 cents.  Not worth this one.

HES: You would have been triggered in at the end of the day.

LULU: No trade

AEP: You would have been triggered in and made about 0.54 cents.

Overall, following this predictions would have worked out rather well.


$JPM:  HOLDING (Down 32%) Let’s start with the pain.  As mentioned yesterday, I got into this trade very foolishly.  Well I’ve probably held on foolishly as well hoping it would go up.  I put my stop below the wick from 6/6.  My stop is at 52.20.  I fully expect to get stopped out tomorrow for a painful loss and lesson learned.  Not much else to say about this speculation/gamble trade.

$FCX:  CLOSED (UP 26%)  Finally, this trade pays off, and handsomely!  I was holding more contracts than the JPM trade so my account ended up closing in the green today.  If I had never taken the JPM trade, I’d be sitting pretty, but such is life.  

Stay tuned for entries and predictions for tomorrow!


Stock Picks for June 20, 2013: $SLV, $NFLX, $TGT, $BBY

Evening, all!  Hope you didn’t get whipsawed today and made some good gains.  Let’s get started for tomorrow.

$SLV:  My oh my, I have been waiting for this close and I wish I was already into the trade. I’m going to have to wait until tomorrow, but now that I am waiting, I’ll wait for a 15min confirmation.  We close below support and the next target is 19.72.  Oscillators are a bit quiet on this one, but I still like the trade bearish.


$NFLX  Today was probably the day to get in long, but I don’t think the move has been missed by any means.  This will be a 15min bullish entry tomorrow with a target of 246.50.  Oscillators are turning up and supporting the move.  There isn’t much not to like about this trade other than potential “moodiness” in the overall market.


$TGT: I like this one short on the first 15min.  I think we have broken support and oscillators are supporting the move.  Volume was a little low, but not completely horrible.  Target is 67.53.TGT_JUNE_20_2013

$BBY  This one is interesting.  We are either at a triple top or consolidating to bust out and continue the bullish trend.  Personally, I’d like to see a strong bullish move upward to keep the trend going.  My long entry is 28.30.  That being said, the stock could be exhausted in which case my short entry would be on a close below 24.89.


Here are some other quick look trades:

AEO 15min bearish

BIDU bullish on a close over 96.36

DDD 15min bearish (day trade)

HD 15min bearish (day trade)

JPM 15min bearish (day trade)

HES entry on close under 65.65

LULU bullish on close above 65.80

AEP 15min bearish; target is 43.80

Good luck and have a good night!


Picks for tomorrow, June 19, 2013: $DDD, $DIS, $FSLR, $HD

Well as I mentioned yesterday, I don’t plan on taking any addition positions until after the Fed speaks, so that we get some sort of idea of a direction.  With that in mind, all entries will be in the last 15min of the trading day tomorrow.  Let’s get started:

$DDD:  The entry I like is a close above 48.90.  The trend is looking bullish and despite the down day today, I believe the trend is still in tact.  However, as I’ve been saying about a lot of stocks lately, I’d like to see volume increase with a bullish move.DDD_JUNE_19_2013


$DIS:  This is a trade I would have gotten into at the end of today had it not been for the FED tomorrow.  That being said, as lon gas we don’t get a huge move up, I would enter long given that we close above today’s high.DIS_JUNE_19_2013

$FSLR:  This one is interesting.  It is in some sort of pennant/flag pattern as volume has declined steadily for the duration of the pattern.  I believe this is a bearish pattern, but time will tell.  Therefore, I have a number of entries.  Conservatively on the bearish side, I like an entry with a close of 44.30.  A more aggressive bearish entry is a close below 45.50.  On the bullish side, I like an entry of 46.80.  Again, these are all end of day closes in order to make an entry, but I would expect a breakout in either direction tomorrow.FSLR_JUNE_19_2013

$HD.  Well I got burned on this stock last week, but I think it has the signs of turning bullish.  I like entering this one on a close above 75.55.HD_JUNE_19_2013

Here are some other trades I’m looking at:

$AEO:  Same entry as yesterday

$AAPL: Same entry as yesterday

$COST:  Same as yesterday

$HAL:  Get in on close above today’s high.

$XOM:  Watch for a bullish entry

$JCP:  Same entry as yesterday

$LOW:  Entry of 41.88

$PHM: Same entry as yesterday

$SLV:  Close below 20.72

$UA:  Watch the bracket trade

$WMT:  Entry with a close above 76.25.

Keep a very close eye on these two; WLT is close to it’s all time lows.  It is in some sort of downward triangle that may breakout soon.  In addition, it just formed a morning star reversal pattern on huge volume.  If it breaks out of that triangle, it may be worth writing some puts and/or buying some calls.

Next is BBRY which is in a long term symmetrical triangle.  Watch for a breakout!


That about wraps it up.  I will be cautious tomorrow.  I’d like to see a bullish trend resume as there are a lot of great setups forming, but we’ll see what happens tomorrow.  Good luck, all!



Market Overview from June 18, 2013 with a Look Ahead to Tomorrow

The market had another bullish today, but on horrifically low volume.  What does this mean?  Well I am certainly not a market expert, but I would suggest that all the “smart” and  “big” money that will move the market is on the sidelines until the Fed speaks tomorrow.  Even then, I don’t expect roaring volume, but I would definitely expect a pop higher than the recent anemic volume action.  Anyway, I’m getting slightly ahead of myself.

Today we break out of a triangle (yay!) that’s been forming for the past month or so.  We closed above my target entry, but I did not take any market close trades today.  As mentioned before, we closed on weak volume despite the break out.  However, oscillators did support the bullish move.  There isn’t a whole lot else to say so here is my chart:


I’m going to talk about my real account and yesterday’s picks before I talk about my predictions for tomorrow, so here we go:


$VZ:  CLOSED 5% LOSS  Well hooray for me.  VZ recovered from it’s down day yesterday with a nice bullish candle.  Volume was okay, and we closed above the 50SMA, but we fell short of closing above yesterday’s high.  I really wanted to stay in this trade, but given how I shouldn’t have been in it at all, I cut my loss (5%) loss which really helped my account.  If we didn’t have the FED talking tomorrow, I may have just closed out 3 options and held on to two, but I didn’t want to gamble.  The loss is disappointing, but not nearly as bad as what it was (25%) or what it could have been.

$JNJ:  ENTERED I think this is a strong overall stock and I took a bullish entry once we closed above today’s 15min candle.  I’m currently up a whopping 1%.  There’s not much to say about this one other than the fact that I believe it is still bullish and I plan on taking a small profit prior to the FED speaking tomorrow (I just gave away my prediction for tomorrow!).  Either way, my stop will be tight and I don’t plan to hold through the FED announcement.

$FCX:  STILL IN This bugger of a stock is still not cooporating with me although I am getting closer and closer to my target.  I will end up eeking out about a 5% profit which really has not been worth the headache.  However, I’d rather have a 5% profit than any sort of loss.  My position is small, so I plan on tightening my gap and holding until either it or my target is reached.  I will hold through the FED announcement.


Today would have been an excellent day for people listening to my 15min advice:

$JNJ was a 15min entry.  You’d be up 1%.  Nothing special

$AMZN:  In at 280.31.  Closed at 281.74.  Max: 282.90  Nice profit

$DDD:  You never would have gotten triggered in.  Good trade to avoid today.

$PHM: We did not close above our entry.  Would not have been triggered.

$AAPL:  We did not closed below our entry.  No trade.

$AEO:  We did not closed below our entry.  No trade.

$DIS:  You would have gotten triggered in at the end of the day.  I would sell tomorrow on a pop.

$HAL:  You would have gotten triggered in at the end of the day.  I would sell tomorrow on a pop.

$JCP:  We did not closed below our entry.  No trade.

$NFLX:  We would not have gotten triggered.  No trade.  Good one to avoid today.

$SNDK: We would have entered at 61.79.  Closed at 63.05.  High: 63.26.  Nice profit!

$Z:  We would have gotten in at 56.11.  Closed at 56.73.  High: 57.50.  Could have been a nice profit or an okay one depending on if you let the trade run or cut near the peak.  As mentioned, though, this one is risky since it is a low volume stock.

$TGT:  Entry at 69.97.  Closed at 70.16.  This wouldn’t have been a good day trade.  Perhaps we will be up tomorrow morning.

$TSLA:  Entry at 102.50 with a close of 103.42 and a high of 103.98.  Not a bad trade!

$COST:  We did not close above my entry.

That was 15 stock picks.  5 trades were profitable, with 1 being neutral.  2 trades you would have gotten triggered into and will have to wait to see until tomorrow on how they shape up.  7 trade set-ups allowed you to avoid negative trades.  Not a bad day at all!


As I alluded to before, I believe the bullish trend is going to continue tomorrow on low volume.  I don’t think it will be huge volume, but i think we will be up 25 to 30 points in the morning and maybe drift up to 50 or 70 by the time the Fed talks.  At that point, it’s anyone’s guess, but I would assume that we will give up those gains and may even turn red for the day after the Fed talks, but that’s not even a gut feeling.  I honestly have no idea what’s going to happen, that is my modest and very shaky prediction.  My plan is to take profits on trades prior to the Fed speaking then only enter end of day trades if they meet my entry criteria.

Happy Trading and best of luck.  Please feel free to post any questions or comments!


Picks for Tomorrow June 18, 2013: $JNJ, $AMZN, $DDD, $PHM

Let’s see if I can have a better day tomorrow than today!

$JNJ.  Looks to me like it just broke out of a triangle.  Oscillators are turning up and RSI is supporting the move.  I think this one is a 15min confirmation entry tomorrow bullishly.  I like this trade if it cooperates.  It has a nice RtR.



$AMZN:  Here’s another 15min entry play.  I like this one almost as much as JNJ.  Unfortunately, it does not have as good of a RtR, but it still looks like a nice play.  First target is 282.40 and the second target is at 284. My stop is at 273.  I’d really like to see some stronger volume on this one, though.



$DDD:  This trade looks good to me.  It just broke out of a triangle and although volume wasn’t excellent, it wasn’t all that bad.  MACD is about to turn, Stochs support the move and RSI is turning up.  If after 15min we get confirmation, I would take this trade bullishly.



$PHM:  I like this one long with a close above 21.98.  See chart below for details.  I haven’t chosen a stop yet but my target is 24.40.  Oscillators are supporting the trade.



Here are some additional stocks that may be of interest:

$AAPL  I still like it bearish on a close below 428.

$AEO: I also like bearish on a close below 18.92.

$DIS I still like the bullish trade on a close over 65.15

$HAL I like bullishly on a close over 44.00  This is 0.30 cents higher than yesterday due to today’s wick.

$JCP I still like bearish on a close below 17.11

$NFLX Looks nice for a bullish run.  15min entry on this one.

$SNDK:  just broke out of a triangle/wedge to all-time highs.  15min bullish on this one.

$Z:  Bullish after the first 15min.  Be wary of the low volume on this one.  Not sure if I would take this trade myself.

$TGT:  Looks good for a 15min bullish entry as does:

$TSLA:  I like this one with a confirming 15min entry.

Lastly, $COST I still like on a close above 112.55.  This is increased from yesterday due to today’s wick.

Good luck all.  If you have any questions, feel free to ask!




Picks for June 17, 2013: $VZ, $AAPL, $DD, $DIS, $FSLR, $HAL, $JCP, $UA

Here we are on the eve of a market on the verge of a breakout (we hope) in either direction.  The hope is that a trend forms so that we can choose a direction.  Let’s see what’s in the works for Monday:

$VZ:  This on looks like it’s on the verge or just beginning a bullish move.  I like a 15min entry on Monday as long as the price movement supports the bullish move.  My targets are  52.37 and 53.58.  Stop is at 50.14.  This is about a 3:1 move at the ultimate target.  Oscillators support the move, but volume has been declining.  Hopefully we get some strong volume tomorrow.


$AAPL:  This one looks good bearishly on a close below 428.  The first target would be 416.63; ultimately we could get back to $383.00.  I would not take this bearish trade unless we close strongly below 428 with supporting volume.  Fortunately, oscillators are supporting the bearish move.  Let’s see what Monday brings:


$DD:  This one is a good candidate for a 15min short.  We close well below my entry point of 53.38 on strong volume.  Oscillators are supporting the bearish move.  I think we are good to go down to 51.60 and then 50.90.  Where you place your stop is where you will determine your Risk to Reward (RtR).  As for me, I would put my stop above the 50 EMA.  This gives us a RtR of only 1:1 which is unfortunate.  Based on this, I would probably not take the trade, but if you are a day trader, you may be interested in this one.


$DIS:  I really like this bracketed trade.  Bullishly, I’d want a close above 65.15.  Bearishly, I’d like a close below 61.98.  Personally, I’d rather see a bullish breakout since it is the path of least resistance.  Notice that volume has been decreasing, which I think will (or should) foreshadow a breakout with solid volume.  Lastly, oscillators are moving bullish, hopefully supporting a bullish breakout.


$FSLR:  While I’d be a little careful of a reversal, I think everything is confirming a bearish trend here.  I like a bounce off of 40.90.  Enter this one after the first 15min if price confirms the direction.  Put your stop at least 46.50.


$HAL:  I like an entry on a close above 43.70.  Oscillators are starting to turn upward, but I’d like to see a close over that price level on strong volume to confirm the trend.  Let’s see what happens if/when we get that close.


$JCP:  We are approaching a level that I’ve been eyeing for a few weeks now.  If we get a close below 17.11, I am taking this trade bearish down to a target of 15.90.  Oscillators are supporting the move, but I would like to see volume support the move down.  I’m definitely keeping an eye on this one.


$UA:  Here is another bracketed trade set-up.  We could be finding support for a bullish reversal, or we may break that support and head low.  Bullishly, I like a close above 60.96 and bearishly I like a close below 58.40.


Although not posted, keep an eye on the following:

COST: Neutral, but close to choosing a direction.

VALE: Short

AEO:  Short

NKE: breakout from triangle

That about wraps up my picks for tomorrow.  I hope you guys have good luck if you choose to entertain any of these choices.  Just ensure you do your own due diligence before taking any real money trades.  Good night!


Picks for JUNE 13, 2013: $LULU, $TXN, $AEO, $JCP

Here we on the eve of a potentially trend defining day.  Let’s see what we can plan for!

$LULU:  So a lot of people are thinking this stock is oversold and it’s going to bounce.  Well, I don’t disagree that it’s oversold and I don’t disagree it will bounce, but I do think that it has some more downside, and that’s what I’m hoping to catch tomorrow.  My plan is for a 15min entry with a target of 61.52.  My stop will be very tight, so I may get stopped out quick.  I will place it just above the day’s open in case the stock does pop.  I think this has good potential of earning some money tomorrow.


$TXN:  This one just broke out of some sort of wedge formation.  I like this one short after the first 15min with targets seen in the chart below.  I will probably take profits at 34.00 and then re-enter if the trend continues.


$AEO  This one just broke out of a triangle and heading downward.  This is another 15min entry with a target of 18.12.  Oscillators are supporting the move.  Not much else to say, but I like this one short tomorrow.  My stop will be above the resistance level at $19.15.


$JCP:  Last but not least we have JCP.  This stock just broke out of a large triangle, but rather than taking the trade now, I’d like to see a close below 17.11 before entering.  My target is 15.73.  My stop is TBD.JCP_JUNE_13_2013

Good luck everyone, and keep an eye on the overall market!  Goodnight.