1/18/18 Market Update

Current Positions:

$AAPL: 2 February $180 calls.  Current Status: +19%.  Target 1:  182.13   Target 2: 189.59  Earnings:  1 February

$DIS: 25 shares.  Current Status: +1.8%. Plan: Sell at Target 1: $113.16.    Earnings: 6 Feb

$HD: 2 February $195 calls.  Current Status:  Second contract status:  +49% CLOSED Plan:  Target 2: $202.27.    Earnings:  13 Feb

$JNJ: 2 February $145 calls.  Current Status:  +26% CLOSED Earnings: 23 January.

$WMT: 2 March $100 calls.  Current Status: 30%; 1 contract sold for 30% Plan:  Sell at Target 2: 108.69  Earnings:  15 Feb

 

See today’s video for details:

1/17/18 Stock Picks

Current Positions:

$AAPL: 2 February $180 calls.  Current Status:  -17%.  Plan:  I entered Apple via the 5minute rule, but it did not hold its gains.  It closed right around the breakout level, so I’m looking for a bounce tomorrow.    Earnings:  1 February

$DIS: 25 shares.  Current Status: 0.82%. Plan: Sell at Target 1: $113.16.     Well, I put in a limit order for 113.10, but not in time for it to execute.  It was my own fault for not putting in the order prior to market open.  Now I’ll wait to see if it bounces off of the ascending triangle. Earnings: 6 Feb

$HD: 2 February $195 calls.  Current Status:  Second contract status:  +26%.  Plan: Another ugly candle today, but still not breaking any trends. Target 2: $202.27.    Earnings:  13 Feb

$JNJ: 2 February $145 calls.  Current Status:  +23%.  Plan:  Trim 1 call at Target 1: 148.63.  Ensure position is closed prior to earnings.  The gains didn’t quite hold, but better than a lot of other stocks today.  Still looking solid.  Earnings: 23 January.

$WMT: 2 March $100 calls.  Current Status: 0%. Plan: My plan remains to trim 1 call at Target 1: $103.85.  Quite a bit of action on WMT today.  Bullish trend is still in tact. Earnings:  15 Feb

 

Please see my YouTube video for actual analysis here:

 

1/16/18 Stock Picks

On Friday, we enjoyed another solid bullish move in the  markets.  I think we’re starting to get a bit over-extended/overbought here, but by managing risk through setting stops, I’m confident in nibbling on small bullish positions.

Current Positions:

$DIS: 25 shares.  Current Status: 2.2%. Plan: Sell at Target 1: $113.16.     Earnings: 6 Feb

$HD: 2 February $195 calls.  Current Status: Closed one contract for 35 gain%. Plan: HD had an ugly candle on Friday.  Not sure what caused the massive sell-off in the afternoon.  However, I’m still holding one contract, look at Target 2: $202.27.    Earnings:  13 Feb

$IWM: 2 March $157 calls.  Current Status: Closed position for 46% gain.  I only intended to close 1 contract, but had a lag in my app where I inadvertently sold two.  I’m tempted to get back in with one contract, but don’t want to push my luck since Target 1 was hit.  I’m very happy with the profit I locked in.

$JNJ: 2 February $145 calls.  Current Status:  +4.5%.  Plan:  Trim 1 call at Target 1: 148.63.  Ensure position is closed prior to earnings.  Earnings: 23 January.

$WMT: 2 March $100 calls.  Current Status: 0%. Plan: My plan remains to trim 1 call at Target 1: $103.85.  Not the prettiest candle, but there’s no reason why we can’t continue higher.  Earnings:  15 Feb

Breaking Out

$AAPL:  After flirting with the line for a while, Apple finally saw a breakout.  I’m not in love with $AAPL’s price action, but I do think it’s worth taking a trade here assuming the 5 minute candle rule works out.  Target 1:  $182.13  Target2:  $189.59.

$BEAT:  I’m honestly not familiar with this company, but based on the chart, it has broken out and looks like it has room to run.  Friday was a strong candle and I’d be interested in buying shares instead of options (due to low OPT interest) assuming successful 5minute rule.  Target 1: $34.14  Target 2:  $36.42

$MMM: 3M had a breakout-ish candle on Friday.  Again, not the prettiest candle, but it is technically above the breakout line.  I would consider a small position based on the 5 minute rule.  Target 1:  $249.06  Target 2:  $255.33

$PYPL:  PayPal technically broke out on Thursday, with confirmation on Friday.  5 minute rule to get in on the action.  Target 1:  $82.27   Target 2:  $86.02

Other Types of Breakouts

$C:  Citigroup broke out of it’s wedge/triangle pattern on Friday.  Although it still needs to get through it’s breakout price level ($77.83), the fact it broke bullishly from the pattern is a positive sign.  I would consider getting in tomorrow based on the 5 minute rule.  Target 1:  $79.64.    Target 2:  $81.97

$DNKN:  Who doesn’t like Dunkin Donuts? haha  Well even if you’re not a fan, you should like the strong bounce off of the 50% Fib re-tracement price.  Once again, observe the 5 minute rule, and if it permits, get in the trade.  Breakout line:  $66.43   Target 1: $68.35  Target 2:  $70.82.

 

1/12

After a pause on the 10th, the market had a powerfully bullish day yesterday on average volume.  I’m looking for more upside today.

Current Positions:

$DIS: 25 shares.  Current Status: +.91%. Plan: sell at Target 1: $113.16.     Disney looks to have bounced off of it’s ascending trend line and is set to run.  Earnings: 6 Feb

$HD: 2 February $195 calls.  Current Status: +6.16%. Plan: Trim 1 call on the way to Target 2: $202.27.   Home Depot had a nice strong day pushing above the stagnancy of the last few days.  This ought to be the start of another leg up.  Earnings:  13 Feb

$IWM: 2 March $157 calls.  Current Status: +52.21%. Plan: Trim 1 call at Target 1: $158.28.  Big breakout today.  Lot’s of room to run.  I like this position.  Earnings:

$WMT: 2 March $100 calls.  Current Status: -8.55%. Plan: Trim 1 call at Target 1: $103.85. Walmart filled the gap and then back tested.  I’ll be watching it rather closes as it needs to show it can break out.  Earnings:  15 Feb

What I’m Watching Today:

$CAT:  This one is a bit risky since it passed it’s first target, but the stock has been so strong, it’s difficult to ignore.  I’m thinking of either buying 1 ITM call or buying a couple of OTM calls with a target of $175.81.

$JNJ:  Johnson & Johnson closed above the “breakout” line yesterday.  I’ll be watching on the 5min chart for a close above the first 5min candle before getting in.  I think this play has some good potential to run.  Target1:  $148.63  Target2:  $154.01.

$MMM:  3M has been a very strong stock in the intermediate term and showed strength yesterday after a weak Wednesday.  I don’t expect to get into this trade today, but I’ll be watching for a close above the “breakout” line of $244.19.

$SBUX: Starbucks is back on my radar and is setting up for a breakout.  Again, I’m not crazy about this stock due to over head resistance, but I will keep an eye on it.  Target 1:  $61.13   Target 2:  $62.58

 

 

1/11/18

Good evening!  Interesting day in the market.  We had an early sell-off that recovered.  I see this as a mere pause in the action before charging higher.

I’m still holding $HD calls.  Nothing exciting happened today.  Had some time decay.  My stop is at $191, so I still have a dollar or so at risk before potentially getting stopped out.

Let’s take a look at some potential plays for tomorrow, my favorites being $AXP, $DIS, and $LVS.

Breaking Out:

$AXP and $JPM are both breaking out.  Personally, I like the $AXP play better than the $JPM play because $AXP has a slightly cleaner chart and more room to run, but both have good potential.  I would apply the 5min rule before getting into either of these positions.  $AXP Target 1:  $102.50  Target 2: $105.    $JPM Target 1: $111.06  Target 2: $114.69. 

Second Target Push

$FB and $NFLX paused yesterday, but had better days today, particularly $NFLX.  I really like the $NFLX play here assuming it satisfies the 5min rule.  My biggest concern with $NFLX is that it’s reporting earnings after market close on 22 January, so there isn’t a lot of time to let this trade breath.  In either event, assuming I got into the trade, I would set my stop at the low of today’s candle.  $FB Target 2:  $193.73  $NFLX Target 2: $222.24.

Still Trying to Breakout-Out

A number of stocks are still on the cusp of breaking out.  I’m keeping an eye on: $IWM, $JNJ, $PYPL and $SBUX.  Of all of these, $JNJ is probably my favorite since MACD crossed and is bullish.  A potential $10 gain for a $2.5 risk.  However, be aware that $JNJ reports earnings on 23 January.  I would not get into any of these until the last 5-15 minutes of the day with price solidly above the breakout price.

Bouncing

$LVS is bouncing off of it’s 50EMA.  Stochastics are turning up, as is MACD, although MACD has yet to cross.  RSI has plenty of room to run.  It has a reward of $9 with a risk of just $1.5. Keep in mind that earnings is on 24 January.  Targets:  1:  $72.24  2:  $75.3  3:  $79.25

$DIS.  This trade could easily go against you based on the technicals.  However, if the bullish trend continues as it has over the last few weeks, we could see a bounce with a nice gain.  Notice the ascending trend line that has acted as support 3 times in the past.  If it holds a fourth time, I’d be looking at a target of $113.16.  I’m not sure I would hold beyond that due to overhead resistance, but for a swing trade, there’s extremely low risk.  I would get in on the 5minute rule OR, if $DIS gaps up and comes back down to the trend line, I would enter a small position with a tight stop.  I’ll have  my eye on this one tomorrow.

April 5 Update

Hello all,

I’ve been keeping an eye on the market and it seems as though we are at or very close to a breaking point on a descending triangle.  This is true both of the DOW and the S&P.  Will we bounce or will we push lower?  There’s no answer to that until it actually happens.  Once it does happen, the direction of the market will become more clear and trades with low risk and high reward can be taken.

On a side note, with the addition of $AAPL to the DOW, I believe the S&P is a better indicator of overall market health.  So any time I reference “the market”, I am talking about the S&P unless otherwise specified.

A number of stocks are at key support levels, some are in bollinger band squeezes, and others are in existing down-trends.  Let’s take a look at a couple of stocks exhibiting this behavior:

$JNJ:

As can be seen, $JNJ has been in a down trend in recent months.  It appeared to have formed a double bottom, but it is about to retest that bottom.  $JNJ was in a downward channel, but made a higher high and slightly broke out of the channel which is slightly concerning.  However, if it breaks and closes below $98, I’m looking for a swing trade over the course of a week or two down to $95.  MACD is already looking slightly bearish and a close below $98 should support a short trade.  The other way to play this stock is to go long if it bounces off $98, but that would be a counter trend trade and would require a tight stop.  $LVS is another stock in a downward trend worth looking at.

$FSLR:

This stock does not necessarily follow the trend of the overall market.  As a matter of fact, it has been in a side-ways pattern for around a month or so and is now in a bollinger-band squeeze.  Whichever way it breaks out of the band is the direction I would take the trade.  However, I would start with a small position due to the possibility of a “head fake”.$HES is a stock just about to enter into a bollinger band squeeze.

$EXPE

$EXPE is a great example of a stock breaking out.  The only thing I am concerned with is if the market pushes lower, the breakout could fizzle.  A low risk trade would be watching for $EXPE to come back to $96.74 before getting in and keeping a tight stop.  You may miss the move with this approach, so the alternative is to get in at market open understanding that you’ll want a wide stop.

$EBAY:

$EBAY is and has been in a nice uptrend.  It sits on the ascending trend line and is a good low risk/reward play.  However, this one may also depend on the direction of the market.  MACD is looking bearish so the stock may roll over.  If it does $55.50 is the first target.  $54.00 is the second.  If we get a bounce, $59.70 looks likely as a first target.$BBY is another stock in a similar up-trend.

That wraps up this update.  Have a great night, hope you had a happy Easter.  Good night and happy trading!

25 March Update

With the large sell-off, I got stopped out of my DD trade.  Yes, I took a loss, but it was negligible for two reasons:  1. My position was small.  2.  I mitigated my risk by getting into the trade near support and thus use a tight stop.  DD continued to plummet past my stop, with my account in tact.  As pointed out yesterday, I am already eying a re-entry for DD assuming that the overall market’s bullish uptrend continues and DD joins in.

Speaking of which, there are a number of stocks that are so very tempting to short.  I say tempting because the overall market’s uptrend is still in tact.  I may take a gamble on a short of a stock that is already in a down trend, such as $UPS.

Other stocks that are temping to short in the near term:  $BAC, $COF, $IP, $JNJ, $JPM.

Again, I would strong encourage anyone to understand the risks of taking a short trade in this current market environment.

That’s all for today.  I don’t expect to post again until the weekend.  Have a great rest of the week and happy trading!

23 March Update

So the $DOW had a nasty sell-off at the end of the day, but still remains in an uptrend.  Meanwhile, the S&P, which also sold off, is starting to flatten out a bit.  Overall, I’m cautiously bullish.  If the trend of the last few trading sessions plays out, we can expect a white candle tomorrow.

Real Account Update:

Reviewing yesterday’s trades, $DD was up slightly. I was able to get into the trade around the lows of the day.  I bought the stock outright, rather than buying calls.  $DD held the ascending trend line and still looks healthy.

$EXPE sold off with the rest of the market.  I was hesitant to get into the trade, due to the volatile open.  $EXPE sits on solid resistance, so this is an even better bullish entry with less risk and more reward.  I’m not sure I will take the trade, but I’m very interested to see how the stock moves tomorrow.

What I’m looking at:

$JNJ

$JNJ has been in a down trend since the end of last year.  However, a double bottom may be in (see chart below).  If we close above the “neck line”, I like $JNJ long; first target ~$106.50.

$PFE

PFizer just closed at its all-time high today.  You can see that MACD is about to turn positive and volume was strong on today’s breakout.  The long wick is a little concerning, but this entry provides low risk/high reward.  First target is $36.03.

$VLO

Lastly, Valero is on the cusp of a breakout to all time highs with MACD just starting to turn bullish.  If this one breaks out, I like a medium term target (approximately 1 month) of $68.45.

  On My Radar:

$COH, $MA, $SBUX, $TIF, $WFC, $AAPL

Just a quick note on $AAPL; although it gapped up slightly, the candle was still one of indecision.  I’m still looking for the $129.50 entry.

That’s all for tonight.  Happy trading!

Market Review June 25, 2013

Today’s action showed a rebound from yesterday’s doji candle.  Despite closing below the 100 SMA yesterday, we closed back above it today despite weak volume.  I believe a close above today’s wick means we will fight against the 50 SMA.  Above that and we could be out of this short term bearish trend.  That being said, we could always be forming some sort of bearish flag/pennant pattern on declining volume that will ultimately take us lower.  Notice that intersecting trend line I drew (yesterday’s candle broke it briefly.  I’m not sure how “real” that line is, but it is interesting for a different perspective.  Personally, I believe tomorrow will be a moderately bullish day but on even lower volume.  But hey, nothing says we can’t trade down to Monday’s lows.

REVIEW OF YESTERDAY’s PICKS:

$BIDU:  We did not open down so you would not have taken this trade.  If you did take the trade, you would have needed to recognize the double bottom that formed between 10:30 and 11:00.  Otherwise this trade would not have been profitable… yet.  I still believe BIDU is heading south.

$JNJ:  If you took this trade, you would have made a few pennies on it.  I believe JNJ is a strong stock that is going higher.

$CAT:  We did not open down, so you would not have take this trade.

$VLO:  You would not have been triggered in.

$AEO: You would not have been triggered in.

$AXP: You would not have been triggered in.

$FCX:  We did not open down.  No trade.

$TWC: No break out.  I’m surprised we were down on a bullish market day.  Does not speak well for a breakout.  Volume was moderately strong as well.

$GS:  You would not have been triggered in; we did not open down.

$T:  You would not have been triggered in.

$FSLR:  This would have been a good trade to jump into at the open.

I’ll be honest, I was expecting a bullish day, and the market definitely tricked me.  That being said, it’s important to maintain your stops so you don’t get caught with your proverbial pants down like I just did as you will see below…

REAL ACCOUNT ACTIVITY:

$DECK HOLDING (-15%):  We bounced and I was not expecting it.  Stubbornly I held.  My stop is at 48.75.  I’d like to see a down day tomorrow, but I think I will have to take my medicine and my stop will be hit.  These types of losses are not good for my account.  I need to learn to minimize them better.

$UA HOLDING (-24%):  This is even worse of a play than DECK.  This is just stubborn emotional trading.  I could have minimized my risk and lived to see another day.  Now I am hoping for a down day to recoup some losses.  Not a smart way to trade, and I know it.  My stop is at 58.07.  Again, I can’t afford to be taking these types of losses.  I either need to hedge or cut out sooner.

I’m hoping for a more cheerful day tomorrow.  Stay tuned for my picks for tomorrow.

Stock Picks for June 25, 2013: $BIDU, $JNJ, $CAT, $VLO

Tomorrow is a new day.  Only account gains tomorrow! 🙂

I’ll provide one long play, but the rest of my plays are still short.  Personally, I think tomorrow is going to be a mixed bag for stocks.  That being said, let’s see if the market cooperates:

$BIDU:  This guy looks ripe for the shorting regardless of what the market is doing.  Overall we are in a major downtrend, price just got below all of the MAs, oscillators support and volume, while not huge, supports the bearish move.  This is a 15min entry for me tomorrow.  84.15 is my target:

$JNJ:  Here is the bullish trade.  JNJ is a strong stock, not overly affected by this recent downward move.  In addition, it actually had an up day today while mostly everything else was down.  It would be nice to see the market support the move, but we definitely need a close above today’s wick and the 50MA.  For an aggressive play, get in on a close above 85.35 or more conservatively on a close above 86.54.

$CAT:  I have been waiting for a close below support for a while on this one and it finally happened today.  I missed getting in, but this ought to be a good 15min rule entry.  We are in a medium term downtrend and I think it can continue to at least a target of 80.10.

$VLO:  Lastly we have VLO which was good to me on Friday.  I probably should have held onto it, but hindsight is 20/20.  Looking at it now, if we break below 33.20, I don’t see much support until 29.60.  Looking for that close to take advantage of this trade:

Some other ideas for tomorrow:

$AEO 15min bear.  Target of 17.00

$AXP 15min bear.  Target of 70.45

$FCX 15min bear.  Target of 25.87

$TWC:  Keep watching for a breakout out of this bullish flag.

$GS: 15min bear.  Target of 147.72

$T:  Bearish with a close below 34.70.  Target of 33.63.

$FSLR:  Pure speculation play.  Obama will be talking about renewable energy in a positive light so this may be a good long play.

Goodnight all, and good luck!