April 5 Update

Hello all,

I’ve been keeping an eye on the market and it seems as though we are at or very close to a breaking point on a descending triangle.  This is true both of the DOW and the S&P.  Will we bounce or will we push lower?  There’s no answer to that until it actually happens.  Once it does happen, the direction of the market will become more clear and trades with low risk and high reward can be taken.

On a side note, with the addition of $AAPL to the DOW, I believe the S&P is a better indicator of overall market health.  So any time I reference “the market”, I am talking about the S&P unless otherwise specified.

A number of stocks are at key support levels, some are in bollinger band squeezes, and others are in existing down-trends.  Let’s take a look at a couple of stocks exhibiting this behavior:

$JNJ:

As can be seen, $JNJ has been in a down trend in recent months.  It appeared to have formed a double bottom, but it is about to retest that bottom.  $JNJ was in a downward channel, but made a higher high and slightly broke out of the channel which is slightly concerning.  However, if it breaks and closes below $98, I’m looking for a swing trade over the course of a week or two down to $95.  MACD is already looking slightly bearish and a close below $98 should support a short trade.  The other way to play this stock is to go long if it bounces off $98, but that would be a counter trend trade and would require a tight stop.  JNJ$LVS is another stock in a downward trend worth looking at.

$FSLR:

This stock does not necessarily follow the trend of the overall market.  As a matter of fact, it has been in a side-ways pattern for around a month or so and is now in a bollinger-band squeeze.  Whichever way it breaks out of the band is the direction I would take the trade.  However, I would start with a small position due to the possibility of a “head fake”.FSLR$HES is a stock just about to enter into a bollinger band squeeze.

$EXPE

$EXPE is a great example of a stock breaking out.  The only thing I am concerned with is if the market pushes lower, the breakout could fizzle.  A low risk trade would be watching for $EXPE to come back to $96.74 before getting in and keeping a tight stop.  You may miss the move with this approach, so the alternative is to get in at market open understanding that you’ll want a wide stop.EXPE

$EBAY:

$EBAY is and has been in a nice uptrend.  It sits on the ascending trend line and is a good low risk/reward play.  However, this one may also depend on the direction of the market.  MACD is looking bearish so the stock may roll over.  If it does $55.50 is the first target.  $54.00 is the second.  If we get a bounce, $59.70 looks likely as a first target.EBAY$BBY is another stock in a similar up-trend.

That wraps up this update.  Have a great night, hope you had a happy Easter.  Good night and happy trading!

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25 March Update

With the large sell-off, I got stopped out of my DD trade.  Yes, I took a loss, but it was negligible for two reasons:  1. My position was small.  2.  I mitigated my risk by getting into the trade near support and thus use a tight stop.  DD continued to plummet past my stop, with my account in tact.  As pointed out yesterday, I am already eying a re-entry for DD assuming that the overall market’s bullish uptrend continues and DD joins in.

Speaking of which, there are a number of stocks that are so very tempting to short.  I say tempting because the overall market’s uptrend is still in tact.  I may take a gamble on a short of a stock that is already in a down trend, such as $UPS.

Other stocks that are temping to short in the near term:  $BAC, $COF, $IP, $JNJ, $JPM.

Again, I would strong encourage anyone to understand the risks of taking a short trade in this current market environment.

That’s all for today.  I don’t expect to post again until the weekend.  Have a great rest of the week and happy trading!

23 March Update

So the $DOW had a nasty sell-off at the end of the day, but still remains in an uptrend.  Meanwhile, the S&P, which also sold off, is starting to flatten out a bit.  Overall, I’m cautiously bullish.  If the trend of the last few trading sessions plays out, we can expect a white candle tomorrow.

Real Account Update:

Reviewing yesterday’s trades, $DD was up slightly. I was able to get into the trade around the lows of the day.  I bought the stock outright, rather than buying calls.  $DD held the ascending trend line and still looks healthy.

$EXPE sold off with the rest of the market.  I was hesitant to get into the trade, due to the volatile open.  $EXPE sits on solid resistance, so this is an even better bullish entry with less risk and more reward.  I’m not sure I will take the trade, but I’m very interested to see how the stock moves tomorrow.

What I’m looking at:

$JNJ

$JNJ has been in a down trend since the end of last year.  However, a double bottom may be in (see chart below).  If we close above the “neck line”, I like $JNJ long; first target ~$106.50.JNJ

$PFE

PFizer just closed at its all-time high today.  You can see that MACD is about to turn positive and volume was strong on today’s breakout.  The long wick is a little concerning, but this entry provides low risk/high reward.  First target is $36.03.PFE

$VLO

Lastly, Valero is on the cusp of a breakout to all time highs with MACD just starting to turn bullish.  If this one breaks out, I like a medium term target (approximately 1 month) of $68.45.VLO

  On My Radar:

$COH, $MA, $SBUX, $TIF, $WFC, $AAPL

Just a quick note on $AAPL; although it gapped up slightly, the candle was still one of indecision.  I’m still looking for the $129.50 entry.

That’s all for tonight.  Happy trading!

Market Review June 25, 2013

Today’s action showed a rebound from yesterday’s doji candle.  Despite closing below the 100 SMA yesterday, we closed back above it today despite weak volume.  I believe a close above today’s wick means we will fight against the 50 SMA.  Above that and we could be out of this short term bearish trend.  That being said, we could always be forming some sort of bearish flag/pennant pattern on declining volume that will ultimately take us lower.  Notice that intersecting trend line I drew (yesterday’s candle broke it briefly.  I’m not sure how “real” that line is, but it is interesting for a different perspective.  Personally, I believe tomorrow will be a moderately bullish day but on even lower volume.  But hey, nothing says we can’t trade down to Monday’s lows.

SPY_JUNE_25_2013

REVIEW OF YESTERDAY’s PICKS:

$BIDU:  We did not open down so you would not have taken this trade.  If you did take the trade, you would have needed to recognize the double bottom that formed between 10:30 and 11:00.  Otherwise this trade would not have been profitable… yet.  I still believe BIDU is heading south.

$JNJ:  If you took this trade, you would have made a few pennies on it.  I believe JNJ is a strong stock that is going higher.

$CAT:  We did not open down, so you would not have take this trade.

$VLO:  You would not have been triggered in.

$AEO: You would not have been triggered in.

$AXP: You would not have been triggered in.

$FCX:  We did not open down.  No trade.

$TWC: No break out.  I’m surprised we were down on a bullish market day.  Does not speak well for a breakout.  Volume was moderately strong as well.

$GS:  You would not have been triggered in; we did not open down.

$T:  You would not have been triggered in.

$FSLR:  This would have been a good trade to jump into at the open.

I’ll be honest, I was expecting a bullish day, and the market definitely tricked me.  That being said, it’s important to maintain your stops so you don’t get caught with your proverbial pants down like I just did as you will see below…

REAL ACCOUNT ACTIVITY:

$DECK HOLDING (-15%):  We bounced and I was not expecting it.  Stubbornly I held.  My stop is at 48.75.  I’d like to see a down day tomorrow, but I think I will have to take my medicine and my stop will be hit.  These types of losses are not good for my account.  I need to learn to minimize them better.

$UA HOLDING (-24%):  This is even worse of a play than DECK.  This is just stubborn emotional trading.  I could have minimized my risk and lived to see another day.  Now I am hoping for a down day to recoup some losses.  Not a smart way to trade, and I know it.  My stop is at 58.07.  Again, I can’t afford to be taking these types of losses.  I either need to hedge or cut out sooner.

I’m hoping for a more cheerful day tomorrow.  Stay tuned for my picks for tomorrow.

Stock Picks for June 25, 2013: $BIDU, $JNJ, $CAT, $VLO

Tomorrow is a new day.  Only account gains tomorrow! 🙂

I’ll provide one long play, but the rest of my plays are still short.  Personally, I think tomorrow is going to be a mixed bag for stocks.  That being said, let’s see if the market cooperates:

$BIDU:  This guy looks ripe for the shorting regardless of what the market is doing.  Overall we are in a major downtrend, price just got below all of the MAs, oscillators support and volume, while not huge, supports the bearish move.  This is a 15min entry for me tomorrow.  84.15 is my target:BIDU_JUNE_25_2013

$JNJ:  Here is the bullish trade.  JNJ is a strong stock, not overly affected by this recent downward move.  In addition, it actually had an up day today while mostly everything else was down.  It would be nice to see the market support the move, but we definitely need a close above today’s wick and the 50MA.  For an aggressive play, get in on a close above 85.35 or more conservatively on a close above 86.54.JNJ_JUNE_25_2013

$CAT:  I have been waiting for a close below support for a while on this one and it finally happened today.  I missed getting in, but this ought to be a good 15min rule entry.  We are in a medium term downtrend and I think it can continue to at least a target of 80.10.CAT_JUNE_25_2013

$VLO:  Lastly we have VLO which was good to me on Friday.  I probably should have held onto it, but hindsight is 20/20.  Looking at it now, if we break below 33.20, I don’t see much support until 29.60.  Looking for that close to take advantage of this trade:VLO_JUNE_25_2013

Some other ideas for tomorrow:

$AEO 15min bear.  Target of 17.00

$AXP 15min bear.  Target of 70.45

$FCX 15min bear.  Target of 25.87

$TWC:  Keep watching for a breakout out of this bullish flag.

$GS: 15min bear.  Target of 147.72

$T:  Bearish with a close below 34.70.  Target of 33.63.

$FSLR:  Pure speculation play.  Obama will be talking about renewable energy in a positive light so this may be a good long play.

Goodnight all, and good luck!

Market Review for June 19, 2013

So Uncle Ben speaks today and the market nose dives.  Is this going to be a new trend?  Well to be honest, I have no idea where we go from here, but I’d like to think we’ll have a direction chosen by the end of the week.  I thought we would have been green this morning, but stocks started out rather flat and the DOW was down around 30 points prior to the Fed speaking.  That being said, I wasn’t surprised at how the market reacted after the meeting.  Unfortunately, I had some sort of lapse of judgement and got into a horrible position that I will discuss later on, but first, let’s look at SPY.

We are back into that triangle, but we do have support on the lower trend line which we could hit tomorrow or Friday.  In addition, we have both the 50 EMA and SMA to contend with that just happen to be sitting at that lower trend line.  As a result, I think the rest of the week will be down and that is where we bounce to go higher.  However, if we break through, well then the bearish move will still be on:

SPY_JUNE_19_2013

REAL POSITIONS

$JNJ:  CLOSED -6%  I knew that I needed to move my stop up to prevent any damaging losses and I’m very happy that I did.  I was around even at one point today, so I trailed my stop up.  I’m very thankful I had the foresight to do so.  After I was stopped out, the stock plunged down over a dollar.  I only wish that I had bought puts, but it wasn’t part of my plan so I did not do it.  Not a bad loss (I only had 2 contracts), but it could have been a better trade.

$FCX:  HOLDING  I am finally up 3% on this miserable trade.  My target is still 29.00 and I am holding true to that.  I will probably be up around 10% after commission if my target is reached.  I am happy that I have stuck through this trade.  

$JPM: ENTERED at 54.20.  I am furious with myself over this trade.  I got into this on pure speculation.  It was emotional, a gamble and not part of my trading plan.  For some reason, I had a feeling that financials were going to benefit from the Fed talk, so I bought 2 JPM contracts on a whim.  Stupid horrible idea.  I am down about 15% on the trade so far. Seeing as I believe the market is going to continue down and my contracts expire in August, I MAY hold my calls and I MAY play puts tomorrow assuming that the market and stock move that way.  I do see the 20 EMA as providing support for this stock, so I need to be careful.  I don’t want to get burned doubly.  I will have to wait and see how the market is going to open tomorrow.  I’d like to salvage this trade, but it may be wiser to just close my position and take advantage at a different and better time.  Simply awful.  To be honest, this one angers me more than the $VZ trade.  The $VZ trade was a pure accident, this was just buffoonery and greed.  

REVIEW OF YESTERDAY’S PICKS:

$FSLR:  Would have been a nice day trade short, but since I was playing closes, you would have gotten triggered in on the aggressive position but not the conservative one. 

$AEO:  You would have gotten triggered.  Would need to wait until tomorrow to see how that pans out.

$AAPL:  While you would have gotten triggered, I would not have take this one since it is getting very close to the next support line of 416.

$SLV:  Triggered.  I was so distracted by that JPM trade I totally missed this one.  Very disappointing!  I’m going to have to turn this into a “first 15min” trade tomorrow.

Nothing else looks like it would have triggered.

Stock picks up soon!

 

Picks for tomorrow, June 19, 2013: $DDD, $DIS, $FSLR, $HD

Well as I mentioned yesterday, I don’t plan on taking any addition positions until after the Fed speaks, so that we get some sort of idea of a direction.  With that in mind, all entries will be in the last 15min of the trading day tomorrow.  Let’s get started:

$DDD:  The entry I like is a close above 48.90.  The trend is looking bullish and despite the down day today, I believe the trend is still in tact.  However, as I’ve been saying about a lot of stocks lately, I’d like to see volume increase with a bullish move.DDD_JUNE_19_2013

 

$DIS:  This is a trade I would have gotten into at the end of today had it not been for the FED tomorrow.  That being said, as lon gas we don’t get a huge move up, I would enter long given that we close above today’s high.DIS_JUNE_19_2013

$FSLR:  This one is interesting.  It is in some sort of pennant/flag pattern as volume has declined steadily for the duration of the pattern.  I believe this is a bearish pattern, but time will tell.  Therefore, I have a number of entries.  Conservatively on the bearish side, I like an entry with a close of 44.30.  A more aggressive bearish entry is a close below 45.50.  On the bullish side, I like an entry of 46.80.  Again, these are all end of day closes in order to make an entry, but I would expect a breakout in either direction tomorrow.FSLR_JUNE_19_2013

$HD.  Well I got burned on this stock last week, but I think it has the signs of turning bullish.  I like entering this one on a close above 75.55.HD_JUNE_19_2013

Here are some other trades I’m looking at:

$AEO:  Same entry as yesterday

$AAPL: Same entry as yesterday

$COST:  Same as yesterday

$HAL:  Get in on close above today’s high.

$XOM:  Watch for a bullish entry

$JCP:  Same entry as yesterday

$LOW:  Entry of 41.88

$PHM: Same entry as yesterday

$SLV:  Close below 20.72

$UA:  Watch the bracket trade

$WMT:  Entry with a close above 76.25.

Keep a very close eye on these two; WLT is close to it’s all time lows.  It is in some sort of downward triangle that may breakout soon.  In addition, it just formed a morning star reversal pattern on huge volume.  If it breaks out of that triangle, it may be worth writing some puts and/or buying some calls.

Next is BBRY which is in a long term symmetrical triangle.  Watch for a breakout!

 

That about wraps it up.  I will be cautious tomorrow.  I’d like to see a bullish trend resume as there are a lot of great setups forming, but we’ll see what happens tomorrow.  Good luck, all!

 

Market Overview from June 18, 2013 with a Look Ahead to Tomorrow

The market had another bullish today, but on horrifically low volume.  What does this mean?  Well I am certainly not a market expert, but I would suggest that all the “smart” and  “big” money that will move the market is on the sidelines until the Fed speaks tomorrow.  Even then, I don’t expect roaring volume, but I would definitely expect a pop higher than the recent anemic volume action.  Anyway, I’m getting slightly ahead of myself.

Today we break out of a triangle (yay!) that’s been forming for the past month or so.  We closed above my target entry, but I did not take any market close trades today.  As mentioned before, we closed on weak volume despite the break out.  However, oscillators did support the bullish move.  There isn’t a whole lot else to say so here is my chart:

SPY_JUNE_18_2013

I’m going to talk about my real account and yesterday’s picks before I talk about my predictions for tomorrow, so here we go:

REAL ACCOUNT ACTION:

$VZ:  CLOSED 5% LOSS  Well hooray for me.  VZ recovered from it’s down day yesterday with a nice bullish candle.  Volume was okay, and we closed above the 50SMA, but we fell short of closing above yesterday’s high.  I really wanted to stay in this trade, but given how I shouldn’t have been in it at all, I cut my loss (5%) loss which really helped my account.  If we didn’t have the FED talking tomorrow, I may have just closed out 3 options and held on to two, but I didn’t want to gamble.  The loss is disappointing, but not nearly as bad as what it was (25%) or what it could have been.

$JNJ:  ENTERED I think this is a strong overall stock and I took a bullish entry once we closed above today’s 15min candle.  I’m currently up a whopping 1%.  There’s not much to say about this one other than the fact that I believe it is still bullish and I plan on taking a small profit prior to the FED speaking tomorrow (I just gave away my prediction for tomorrow!).  Either way, my stop will be tight and I don’t plan to hold through the FED announcement.

$FCX:  STILL IN This bugger of a stock is still not cooporating with me although I am getting closer and closer to my target.  I will end up eeking out about a 5% profit which really has not been worth the headache.  However, I’d rather have a 5% profit than any sort of loss.  My position is small, so I plan on tightening my gap and holding until either it or my target is reached.  I will hold through the FED announcement.

IF YOU TOOK MY ADVICE:

Today would have been an excellent day for people listening to my 15min advice:

$JNJ was a 15min entry.  You’d be up 1%.  Nothing special

$AMZN:  In at 280.31.  Closed at 281.74.  Max: 282.90  Nice profit

$DDD:  You never would have gotten triggered in.  Good trade to avoid today.

$PHM: We did not close above our entry.  Would not have been triggered.

$AAPL:  We did not closed below our entry.  No trade.

$AEO:  We did not closed below our entry.  No trade.

$DIS:  You would have gotten triggered in at the end of the day.  I would sell tomorrow on a pop.

$HAL:  You would have gotten triggered in at the end of the day.  I would sell tomorrow on a pop.

$JCP:  We did not closed below our entry.  No trade.

$NFLX:  We would not have gotten triggered.  No trade.  Good one to avoid today.

$SNDK: We would have entered at 61.79.  Closed at 63.05.  High: 63.26.  Nice profit!

$Z:  We would have gotten in at 56.11.  Closed at 56.73.  High: 57.50.  Could have been a nice profit or an okay one depending on if you let the trade run or cut near the peak.  As mentioned, though, this one is risky since it is a low volume stock.

$TGT:  Entry at 69.97.  Closed at 70.16.  This wouldn’t have been a good day trade.  Perhaps we will be up tomorrow morning.

$TSLA:  Entry at 102.50 with a close of 103.42 and a high of 103.98.  Not a bad trade!

$COST:  We did not close above my entry.

That was 15 stock picks.  5 trades were profitable, with 1 being neutral.  2 trades you would have gotten triggered into and will have to wait to see until tomorrow on how they shape up.  7 trade set-ups allowed you to avoid negative trades.  Not a bad day at all!

TOMORROW’S MARKET:

As I alluded to before, I believe the bullish trend is going to continue tomorrow on low volume.  I don’t think it will be huge volume, but i think we will be up 25 to 30 points in the morning and maybe drift up to 50 or 70 by the time the Fed talks.  At that point, it’s anyone’s guess, but I would assume that we will give up those gains and may even turn red for the day after the Fed talks, but that’s not even a gut feeling.  I honestly have no idea what’s going to happen, that is my modest and very shaky prediction.  My plan is to take profits on trades prior to the Fed speaking then only enter end of day trades if they meet my entry criteria.

Happy Trading and best of luck.  Please feel free to post any questions or comments!

Picks for Tomorrow June 18, 2013: $JNJ, $AMZN, $DDD, $PHM

Let’s see if I can have a better day tomorrow than today!

$JNJ.  Looks to me like it just broke out of a triangle.  Oscillators are turning up and RSI is supporting the move.  I think this one is a 15min confirmation entry tomorrow bullishly.  I like this trade if it cooperates.  It has a nice RtR.

JNJ_JUNE_18_2013

 

$AMZN:  Here’s another 15min entry play.  I like this one almost as much as JNJ.  Unfortunately, it does not have as good of a RtR, but it still looks like a nice play.  First target is 282.40 and the second target is at 284. My stop is at 273.  I’d really like to see some stronger volume on this one, though.

AMZN_JUNE_18_2013

 

$DDD:  This trade looks good to me.  It just broke out of a triangle and although volume wasn’t excellent, it wasn’t all that bad.  MACD is about to turn, Stochs support the move and RSI is turning up.  If after 15min we get confirmation, I would take this trade bullishly.

DDD_JUNE_18_2013

 

$PHM:  I like this one long with a close above 21.98.  See chart below for details.  I haven’t chosen a stop yet but my target is 24.40.  Oscillators are supporting the trade.

DDD_JUNE_18_2013

 

Here are some additional stocks that may be of interest:

$AAPL  I still like it bearish on a close below 428.

$AEO: I also like bearish on a close below 18.92.

$DIS I still like the bullish trade on a close over 65.15

$HAL I like bullishly on a close over 44.00  This is 0.30 cents higher than yesterday due to today’s wick.

$JCP I still like bearish on a close below 17.11

$NFLX Looks nice for a bullish run.  15min entry on this one.

$SNDK:  just broke out of a triangle/wedge to all-time highs.  15min bullish on this one.

$Z:  Bullish after the first 15min.  Be wary of the low volume on this one.  Not sure if I would take this trade myself.

$TGT:  Looks good for a 15min bullish entry as does:

$TSLA:  I like this one with a confirming 15min entry.

Lastly, $COST I still like on a close above 112.55.  This is increased from yesterday due to today’s wick.

Good luck all.  If you have any questions, feel free to ask!