Market Review July 10, 2013

Today was a pretty boring day.  Nothing really happened in the markets even with the FOMC.  SPY closed a few pennies above it’s close from yesterday.  The DOW finished pennies below while the NASDAQ had a rather strong bullish day.  I am still bullish on the markets.  It’s not really worth posting charts today, so I will get into the next segment:

REVIEW OF YESTERDAY’S PICKS:

$BTU:  No Trigger.

$COST:  You’d have been triggered in.  Not much action.

$DECK:  No Trigger

$QCOM:  No Trigger

$CELG:  You would have been triggered in; up a few pennies.

$XONE: You would have been triggered in, but as pointed out, there are no options for this stock, unfortunately.

$DMND:  You would have been triggered in; down a few pennies.

REAL ACCOUNT ACTIVITY:

$UA:  HOLDING (+2%) I still expect a bullish move north.

$LNKD:  HOLDING (-8%)  I’m not sure what to think here, but it seems, at least on the daily chart, that we found a bottom.  I expect we go back to retest 195.

$DMND: OPENED (-14%)  A lot of this loss is due to commission and the bid/ask spread. I expect to rebound in the coming days.

$AXP:  CLOSED (+17%)  I am grateful I was able to get out before the plunge down today.  Wish I had shorted, but such is life.

That’s about it for my open positions.  Picks for tomorrow coming soon.

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Trader Remorse and Market Recap for Tuesday, July 9

The bulls are here to stay!!  Or are they?  Taking a look at the S&P ($SPX) (posted below), I’m seeing that today we were one penny shy of the high from 6/18.  What happened after that?  Two rather colossal down days.  I’m not predicting that happens, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we had a little down day that tests the bottom trend line and perhaps even the 50 SMA.  One big difference between now and then is that MACD had not crossed whereas now it has crossed and looks strong.  Looking at the $SPY, we broke above that bottom trend line, but I would like to see some stronger volume coming into play.  Lastly, looking at the $DOW, we have not cracked the overhead resistance line that started forming with the wick on 5/21.  I would like to see a break above this line.  Overall, I am bullish on this market…. for now.SPX_JULY_9_2013

REAL ACCOUNT ACTIVITY:

I had no picks from yesterday, so I’m moving straight into the real account activity.  I have to be honest, I am getting incredibly discouraged.  A few more abysmal days and I may begin paper trading until I see some more consistent results.  My account is down 50% from when I first start in early 2012.  Granted I didn’t know what I was doing that, but even with the knowledge and technical experience I have gained, I am still down about 20% since March.  Part of this is due to bad technical analysis (see the $LULU and $POT trades).  Others due to stupid mistakes (see $VZ) trade, but overall I feel like I am psyching myself out because of the losses I have incurred.  I am not taking profits when I should because I am trying to let the stocks run and I am incurring losses that are too large on the losing side.  All this compounds into big down days.  Now, I am playing with options which may also be part of the cause, but I just do not have the money to be buying 100 shares of various stocks and then trying to write covered calls etc.  Again, I think I may move over to paper trading for a little while until I start becoming more successful.  The last thing I want to do is blow up my account.    Anyway, here is the review:

$AAPL:  CLOSED (-11%).  I was up 15% at one point early this morning, but due to being at work I was unable to move my stop down and maintain my profit.  I also had the through of “letting the trade breath” but my stop was hit and the rest was history.  Very disappointed I wasn’t able to take profits when I wanted.

$AAPL:  OPEN/CLOSED (+2%).  I entered in long once AAPL was above $3 on the day.  I made a measly gain that I closed out at around $419.  I was spooked by the earlier trade, but had I waited I would have just about pared my loss.

$LNKD: HOLDING (-2%).  From up 11% to down 2%.  I’m not exactly expecting a rebound tomorrow.  Looking at the past 6 months, a down day is almost always followed by another down day.  I will probably get stopped out.

$AXP:  HOLDING (+24%).  This trade looks good percentage-wise (and it is).  But compared to the AAPL and LULU loss, it is a small gain.  I am moving my stop up to lock-in gains.

$UA:  HOLDING (+3%).  I’m not overly confident with this trade any more.  I’ve moved my stop up to avoid any significant loss.

I truly feel like I am very close to doing well in this thing called trading, but I need to figure out better risk management especially when trading options.  I certainly do not want to give up, but paper trading may be the only way to salvage my account while I find my groove.

Market Review for Monday July 8, 2013

Good evening all!  I want to apologize for not posting on Friday and Sunday.  I was on vacation and unable to post.  Then, due to flight delays, I was unable to post on Sunday.  At any rate, I am back in business, so let’s get started.

Today was yet another doji, but we closed above the 50 MA again.  Volume was bland but oscillators and indicators support the bullish trend.  Ideally, I would really like to get above the bottom bullish trend line as well as resistance at 166.01.  For now, I am bullish on the market unless something proves otherwise.  SPY_JULY_9_2013

REVIEW OF PREVIOUS PICKS/REAL ACCOUNT:

$UA:  HOLDING (+3%)  This stock still looks bullish.  I like a target of 64.20.  I have my stop at 60.40. 

$MCD:  Never got triggered.  I still like this one bullish on a close above 100.90 with a target of 102.75

$XONE:  No trigger.  I still think this stock is way over extended and due for a big pullback.

$LULU:  CLOSED (-20%) This one was a technical mistake.  I should have used the wick from 6/12 and for some reason I ignored it.  Entering on a close below that wick would have been appropriate.  Unfortunately, that wick provided support at the stock bounced.  I like a bullish entry on a close above 66.85.

$AXP:  HOLDING (+10%)  I think this stock is strong, but I was not crazy about today’s close.  I may buy protective puts depending on the price action tomorrow.  For now my target is at 78.00 and my stop is at 75.00

$LNKD:  HOLDING (+11%) I think this stock is very strong.  I have my stop at 187.  I’m looking at targets of 194.60 and 200.00.

$TLT:  Would have been a nice trade on Friday, but today it rebounded.  You would have hit your target on Wednesday or Friday.

$AAPL:  HOLDING (-2%)  I am short AAPL back down to $400 with a stop at 417.

I am not going to be able to post picks for tomorrow due to time constraints, but I hope to be back in the swing of things tomorrow.  I think we will have another bullish day tomorrow.  I’m hoping AAPL continues its newly downward trend.  Good night all, and good luck!

Market Recap June 12, 2013. Interesting Day!

What an interesting day on the street today (even if not all that surprising).  You’d think that the bears are completely in control right now, but I do not endorse that notion just yet.  Tomorrow is going to be a day (I hope) where a direction is chosen.  Aside from sideways, (which is always possible) we are either going to bounce off of this short term double bottom and resume the bullish run OR we are going to break through support (see $SPX chart below) and the bears will be in town.  I like a close below 1596 on the SPX for a confirmation of the bears.  Despite oscillators being bearish, my gut tells me that we are going to get a bounce, but my gut does not drive the market. Therefore, I will be waiting and watching patiently to see what the market decides to do.SPX_JUNE_12_2013

Real Positions:

I got crushed on HD; stopped out for a 10% loss.  This is incredibly disappointing because I was up 26% on Monday and did not take profits even though my target was reached.  The market looked like it was off to a strong start so I just let it go.  Then on Tuesday I had a chance to take a 15% return, but refused because I wanted to get back to 26% and again today I had a chance for a 10% return but refused which ultimately landed me with a 10% loss.  Very disappointing, but a very good lesson learned:  Stick to your trading plan and take profits at your target or worse case, move your stop up to your target if you are over.  Learning when to let my profits run and when to take profits is a struggle for me right now, but I’m sure it is something I will develop as I grow and gain more knowledge and experience.

That being said, my $FCX trade triggered today.  I bought 3 August calls, of which I plan to sell (or at least move my stop) at $29.00 for a quick profit.  I will not play around with this trade like I did with $HD.

Let’s look at my picks from yesterday:

$Z would have been an excellent entry after 15min. You may still still be holding and trade down to the 100 MA

$GS short would have been excellent as well

$AXP Ditto

$SLV you would not have gotten triggered in because it was not below the entry price

$CAT you also would not have gotten triggered

$LNKD would not have triggered.  In addition, notice how we stopped right above the 100 MA.  It will be interesting to see if we bounce or keep on going down.

$FCX You would have gotten triggered in.  Let’s see how this trade plays out.

$PHM would really have been your call on getting in or not.  Waiting for a close below support would be the best idea, though.

Picks for tomorrow coming soon!

Picks for June 12, 2013 $FCX, $LNKD and $PHM

Hi all!  There are a number of stocks that could be solid plays for tomorrow.  I’ll list them, but will only go into detail on 3 due to time constraints.  Here is a small list of stocks to keep an eye on:

$Z 15min bearish entry

$GS 15min bearish entry

$AXP 15min bearish entry

$SLV same short entry as yesterday

$CAT entry below 82.56

Of these 4, $Z is my favorite for a 15min entry and SLV is still looking nice with a close below 20.72.

Now, here are 3 with a bit more detail:

$LNKD:  When I first looked at this chart, I was in love with shorting it.  However, I’m now noticing that the oscillators are starting to turn bullish.  That being said, I am waiting for a close below 164.92, so as we approach that entry, there is time for oscillators to turn back bearish.  There are three targets.  Starting from closest target to furthest: 159.94, 154.68, 140.35.  I will choose a stop as we get closer to the entry.LNKD_JUNE_12_2013

FCX:  FCX had pretty strong volume today.  It’s possible that the bulls may turn this one back north due to the doji candle today, but I like a bearish entry with a close below 29.93.  See chart for trade setup:FCX_JUNE_12_2013

$PHM:  Lastly is PHM.  To be honest, I’m not sure if this one is a good 15min entry or a close below entry.  Right now I have it as a 15min entry, but we are bumping into support over the past 5 days, so it may be more wise to wait for a close.  At any rate, oscillators are supporting a bearish move.  I like this one down to the 200 MA or to 18.81.

PHM_JUNE_12_2013Have a good night, all.  Happy Trading!