Picks for Tuesday, July 16: $CAT, $LULU, $FLSR

So today I am just going to take a look at 3 potential plays.  1 brackett, 1 long and 1 15min rule.  So let’s begin!

$CAT:  First off, let me thank #Tradesmartu.com for pointing out this trade.  It looks like we could go in either direction with this stock.  On the bullish side, we need a close above today’s wick as well as a close above the 200 SMA.  Target is 90.60.  Stop is TBD.  On the short side, I like a close below 84.85 and a target of 81.48.  Stop is TBD.CAT_JULY_16_2013

$LULU:  I got burned on this stock a few weeks ago, but it’s looking like a good play is setting up.  There are some long term trend lines, the 200 SMA and recent wicks I’d like to close above.  In addition, there is an ascending triangle forming which I outlined in pink.  I like a close above 66.85 with a target of 70.40.  Stop is TBD.    Notice there is a short trade as well.  That was from a few weeks ago, but it may be valid depending on how LULU behaves.  For now, I am looking at the bullish trade.LULU_JULY_16_2013

$FSLR:  Here is the 15min trade.  It looks like we just had a nice pop on increasing volume. I think FLSR is a strong play with a target of 56.30.  My stop is 48.56.  This trade has an excellent R/R if it plays out as expected.  I think I will leg into this trade with one contract and get a couple more if the trend continues.  FSLR_JULY_16_2013

That about does it.  Best of luck with all your trades.

Trader Remorse and Market Recap for Tuesday, July 9

The bulls are here to stay!!  Or are they?  Taking a look at the S&P ($SPX) (posted below), I’m seeing that today we were one penny shy of the high from 6/18.  What happened after that?  Two rather colossal down days.  I’m not predicting that happens, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we had a little down day that tests the bottom trend line and perhaps even the 50 SMA.  One big difference between now and then is that MACD had not crossed whereas now it has crossed and looks strong.  Looking at the $SPY, we broke above that bottom trend line, but I would like to see some stronger volume coming into play.  Lastly, looking at the $DOW, we have not cracked the overhead resistance line that started forming with the wick on 5/21.  I would like to see a break above this line.  Overall, I am bullish on this market…. for now.SPX_JULY_9_2013

REAL ACCOUNT ACTIVITY:

I had no picks from yesterday, so I’m moving straight into the real account activity.  I have to be honest, I am getting incredibly discouraged.  A few more abysmal days and I may begin paper trading until I see some more consistent results.  My account is down 50% from when I first start in early 2012.  Granted I didn’t know what I was doing that, but even with the knowledge and technical experience I have gained, I am still down about 20% since March.  Part of this is due to bad technical analysis (see the $LULU and $POT trades).  Others due to stupid mistakes (see $VZ) trade, but overall I feel like I am psyching myself out because of the losses I have incurred.  I am not taking profits when I should because I am trying to let the stocks run and I am incurring losses that are too large on the losing side.  All this compounds into big down days.  Now, I am playing with options which may also be part of the cause, but I just do not have the money to be buying 100 shares of various stocks and then trying to write covered calls etc.  Again, I think I may move over to paper trading for a little while until I start becoming more successful.  The last thing I want to do is blow up my account.    Anyway, here is the review:

$AAPL:  CLOSED (-11%).  I was up 15% at one point early this morning, but due to being at work I was unable to move my stop down and maintain my profit.  I also had the through of “letting the trade breath” but my stop was hit and the rest was history.  Very disappointed I wasn’t able to take profits when I wanted.

$AAPL:  OPEN/CLOSED (+2%).  I entered in long once AAPL was above $3 on the day.  I made a measly gain that I closed out at around $419.  I was spooked by the earlier trade, but had I waited I would have just about pared my loss.

$LNKD: HOLDING (-2%).  From up 11% to down 2%.  I’m not exactly expecting a rebound tomorrow.  Looking at the past 6 months, a down day is almost always followed by another down day.  I will probably get stopped out.

$AXP:  HOLDING (+24%).  This trade looks good percentage-wise (and it is).  But compared to the AAPL and LULU loss, it is a small gain.  I am moving my stop up to lock-in gains.

$UA:  HOLDING (+3%).  I’m not overly confident with this trade any more.  I’ve moved my stop up to avoid any significant loss.

I truly feel like I am very close to doing well in this thing called trading, but I need to figure out better risk management especially when trading options.  I certainly do not want to give up, but paper trading may be the only way to salvage my account while I find my groove.

Market Review for Monday July 8, 2013

Good evening all!  I want to apologize for not posting on Friday and Sunday.  I was on vacation and unable to post.  Then, due to flight delays, I was unable to post on Sunday.  At any rate, I am back in business, so let’s get started.

Today was yet another doji, but we closed above the 50 MA again.  Volume was bland but oscillators and indicators support the bullish trend.  Ideally, I would really like to get above the bottom bullish trend line as well as resistance at 166.01.  For now, I am bullish on the market unless something proves otherwise.  SPY_JULY_9_2013

REVIEW OF PREVIOUS PICKS/REAL ACCOUNT:

$UA:  HOLDING (+3%)  This stock still looks bullish.  I like a target of 64.20.  I have my stop at 60.40. 

$MCD:  Never got triggered.  I still like this one bullish on a close above 100.90 with a target of 102.75

$XONE:  No trigger.  I still think this stock is way over extended and due for a big pullback.

$LULU:  CLOSED (-20%) This one was a technical mistake.  I should have used the wick from 6/12 and for some reason I ignored it.  Entering on a close below that wick would have been appropriate.  Unfortunately, that wick provided support at the stock bounced.  I like a bullish entry on a close above 66.85.

$AXP:  HOLDING (+10%)  I think this stock is strong, but I was not crazy about today’s close.  I may buy protective puts depending on the price action tomorrow.  For now my target is at 78.00 and my stop is at 75.00

$LNKD:  HOLDING (+11%) I think this stock is very strong.  I have my stop at 187.  I’m looking at targets of 194.60 and 200.00.

$TLT:  Would have been a nice trade on Friday, but today it rebounded.  You would have hit your target on Wednesday or Friday.

$AAPL:  HOLDING (-2%)  I am short AAPL back down to $400 with a stop at 417.

I am not going to be able to post picks for tomorrow due to time constraints, but I hope to be back in the swing of things tomorrow.  I think we will have another bullish day tomorrow.  I’m hoping AAPL continues its newly downward trend.  Good night all, and good luck!

Picks for July 5, 2013: $UA, $MCD, $XONE, $LULU, $AXP, $TLT, $GOOG

Happy 4th everyone!  With a half day of trading yesterday, the market has some time to “marinate” and hopefully make an indication of which direction it is going to take.  So let’s begin with some picks:

$UA:  I believe this stock is very strong.  A close above 60.96 looks to be a great long entry point.  However, if you want to be aggressive and believe we are going higher, you can enter on a 15min indication.  Indicators are pointing up, but I would ideally like to see volume increase on the bullish move.  UA_JULY_5_2013

$MCD:  It looks like we are breaking out of a short term bearish channel.  You may want to wait for a close above 100.55 or if you want to be more aggressive, you could take a 15min bullish trade.  Target is 102.75.MCD_JULY_5_2013

$XONE:  It looks like this bubble is bursting.  Notice the speed lines I drew.  The most recent line prior to yesterday’s drop is almost vertical.  I think this has a ways to drop.  My target is $53.45 or the speed line I highlighted.  Moreover, yesterday’s candle was a bullish-engulfing candle.  My stop will go above the first 15min candle.  This is definitely a 15min entry.XONE_JULY_5_2013

 

$LULU:  Bracket trade here:  I think the stronger probability is a bearish trade, but the bulls can still win out.  Bearish I like an entry of 63.80 with target of 61.60 and 59.65.  On the bullish side I like an entry of 66.85 and a target of 70.40.LULU_JULY_5_2013

 

$AXP:  What the heck, I’ll do one more since it’s a holiday.  AXP also looks like a bracket set-up.  Bearish entry is a close below 72.90 with a target of 70.45.  Bullish, I like an entry of 76.30 with a target of 78.20.AXP_JULY_5_2013

A couple of other little bonuses:

$TLT: I still like this short with a target of 107.78.  15min entry.

$GOOG:  I still like our entry of 895. with a target of 920.

Enjoy the rest of your holiday and happy trading!

Market Review from July 1, 2013

Three attempts at breaking the 50 day, 3 failures (although I’m not sure if Friday would count as an “attempt”). In addition, we have had sell-offs at the end of each of the last 3 days.  These are certainly not good signs for a bull move, but that doesn’t mean we won’t get one.  In looking at the SPY, volume was low again today.  Notice that RSI has plenty of room in either direction while MACD and Stochs are pointing up but have yet to cross.  I think when a “decision” is made, volume will correspond with the move and those oscillators will either cross or become more defined in the direction of the trend.  Until then, let’s sit tight and play it safe and enjoy the ride.SPY_JULY_2_2013

REVIEW OF YESTERDAY’S PICKS:

$AXP:  You would have gotten triggered in at the end of the day

$LULU:  You would not have gotten triggered in.

$POT:  You would have gotten triggered in at the end of the day.

I’d like to take a second to point out TSLA:  I picked that stock last Wednesday if we closed above 107.20.  If you had gotten in, you would have been down slightly Friday, but up huge today.  Once again, I did not take my own advice, but my confidence is building!

REAL ACCOUNT ACTIVITY:

$POT  OPENED I bought 3 contracts of $POT at the close today.  I’ll post a chart here to further show why I believe this is a good trade.  Not only are we below all of the SMAs, oscillators support the move and volume was huge today, but take a look at this medium term wedge-ish pattern that was broken today:  I am going to put my stop at 38.30 which corresponds to a gap from 11/14.  Although my first target is 36.80, a close below that should send this stock lower.  Let’s see what happens.

 

Picks for Tomorrow July 1, 2013: $AXP, $LULU, $POT

There isn’t a lot I am crazy about with the market still (imo) in an indecision phase.  However, here is what I think has potential:

$AXP: Bearish volume was strong on Friday, but a strong close above 75.50 should send this stock higher.  Stochs are reset and turning up while MACD is about the cross.  AXP_JULY_1_2013

$LULU:  LULU missed earnings, but it has the potential to recover from this recent sell-off. A close above 66.20 should send us to the 100 SMA.LULU_JULY_1_2013

 

$POT:  We are approaching oversold territory, but I don’t think we’re there yet.  A close below 37.70 looks like a good entry with a target of 36.80.  If 36.80 is breached, this one could have some legs in the bearish direction.POT_JULY_1_2013

There are a few other trades I’m looking at but I’m trying to keep my picks to a minimum and focus on the ones that have the best potential.

Good luck all, and happy trading.

Look Out Below! Market Review of June 20, 2013

As we know, the Fed spoke yesterday and spooked the markets.  Well, today was just a continuation of that spooking.  Down we went loosing more than 350 points on the day.  Unreal!  Hopefully you guys had some short positions to take advantage of today’s action.  Unfortunately for me, I was not as lucky as I would have liked to have been, but I’ll get to that later.

Let’s take a look at where the SPY ended up today.  We are well below the triangle that was forming for the last month or so.  In addition, oscillators are turning back over bearish and ADX just ticked upward, indicating that it’s starting to like this new bearish move.  All that being said, we could always fail the bearish move and bounce tomorrow (although I wouldn’t bet on it).  Lastly, volume was large today, also helping confirm the bearish move.  Personally, I think we wait for 15min confirmation tomorrow for the continued bearish move and then start to get into some short positions.  The next point of resistance is the 100 SMA which is about 2 points away from where we currently sit.  This gives us some good opportunity to make some trades before a decision is made on continuing lower or bouncing from there.

SPY_JUNE_20_2013

REVIEW OF YESTERDAY’S PICKS

SLV: We missed the majority of the move, unfortunately, but we could have still gotten some profits for about a 0.20 move.

NFLX:  No trigger

TGT:  No trigger

BBY:  No Trigger (just barely)

DDD: If you get triggered in, you made about 0.61 cents

AEO: wasn’t worth getting in.

HD: you would have been triggered in and made about 0.85 cents.

JPM:  you would have been triggered in and made about 12 cents.  Not worth this one.

HES: You would have been triggered in at the end of the day.

LULU: No trade

AEP: You would have been triggered in and made about 0.54 cents.

Overall, following this predictions would have worked out rather well.

REAL ACCOUNT ACTIVITY:

$JPM:  HOLDING (Down 32%) Let’s start with the pain.  As mentioned yesterday, I got into this trade very foolishly.  Well I’ve probably held on foolishly as well hoping it would go up.  I put my stop below the wick from 6/6.  My stop is at 52.20.  I fully expect to get stopped out tomorrow for a painful loss and lesson learned.  Not much else to say about this speculation/gamble trade.

$FCX:  CLOSED (UP 26%)  Finally, this trade pays off, and handsomely!  I was holding more contracts than the JPM trade so my account ended up closing in the green today.  If I had never taken the JPM trade, I’d be sitting pretty, but such is life.  

Stay tuned for entries and predictions for tomorrow!

Stock Picks for June 20, 2013: $SLV, $NFLX, $TGT, $BBY

Evening, all!  Hope you didn’t get whipsawed today and made some good gains.  Let’s get started for tomorrow.

$SLV:  My oh my, I have been waiting for this close and I wish I was already into the trade. I’m going to have to wait until tomorrow, but now that I am waiting, I’ll wait for a 15min confirmation.  We close below support and the next target is 19.72.  Oscillators are a bit quiet on this one, but I still like the trade bearish.

SLV_JUNE_20_2013

$NFLX  Today was probably the day to get in long, but I don’t think the move has been missed by any means.  This will be a 15min bullish entry tomorrow with a target of 246.50.  Oscillators are turning up and supporting the move.  There isn’t much not to like about this trade other than potential “moodiness” in the overall market.

NFLX_JUNE_20_2013

$TGT: I like this one short on the first 15min.  I think we have broken support and oscillators are supporting the move.  Volume was a little low, but not completely horrible.  Target is 67.53.TGT_JUNE_20_2013

$BBY  This one is interesting.  We are either at a triple top or consolidating to bust out and continue the bullish trend.  Personally, I’d like to see a strong bullish move upward to keep the trend going.  My long entry is 28.30.  That being said, the stock could be exhausted in which case my short entry would be on a close below 24.89.

BBY_JUNE_20_2013

Here are some other quick look trades:

AEO 15min bearish

BIDU bullish on a close over 96.36

DDD 15min bearish (day trade)

HD 15min bearish (day trade)

JPM 15min bearish (day trade)

HES entry on close under 65.65

LULU bullish on close above 65.80

AEP 15min bearish; target is 43.80

Good luck and have a good night!

Picks for JUNE 13, 2013: $LULU, $TXN, $AEO, $JCP

Here we on the eve of a potentially trend defining day.  Let’s see what we can plan for!

$LULU:  So a lot of people are thinking this stock is oversold and it’s going to bounce.  Well, I don’t disagree that it’s oversold and I don’t disagree it will bounce, but I do think that it has some more downside, and that’s what I’m hoping to catch tomorrow.  My plan is for a 15min entry with a target of 61.52.  My stop will be very tight, so I may get stopped out quick.  I will place it just above the day’s open in case the stock does pop.  I think this has good potential of earning some money tomorrow.

LULU_JUNE_13_2013

$TXN:  This one just broke out of some sort of wedge formation.  I like this one short after the first 15min with targets seen in the chart below.  I will probably take profits at 34.00 and then re-enter if the trend continues.

TXN_JUNE_13_2013

$AEO  This one just broke out of a triangle and heading downward.  This is another 15min entry with a target of 18.12.  Oscillators are supporting the move.  Not much else to say, but I like this one short tomorrow.  My stop will be above the resistance level at $19.15.

AEO_JUNE_13_2013

$JCP:  Last but not least we have JCP.  This stock just broke out of a large triangle, but rather than taking the trade now, I’d like to see a close below 17.11 before entering.  My target is 15.73.  My stop is TBD.JCP_JUNE_13_2013

Good luck everyone, and keep an eye on the overall market!  Goodnight.