23 March Update

So the $DOW had a nasty sell-off at the end of the day, but still remains in an uptrend.  Meanwhile, the S&P, which also sold off, is starting to flatten out a bit.  Overall, I’m cautiously bullish.  If the trend of the last few trading sessions plays out, we can expect a white candle tomorrow.

Real Account Update:

Reviewing yesterday’s trades, $DD was up slightly. I was able to get into the trade around the lows of the day.  I bought the stock outright, rather than buying calls.  $DD held the ascending trend line and still looks healthy.

$EXPE sold off with the rest of the market.  I was hesitant to get into the trade, due to the volatile open.  $EXPE sits on solid resistance, so this is an even better bullish entry with less risk and more reward.  I’m not sure I will take the trade, but I’m very interested to see how the stock moves tomorrow.

What I’m looking at:

$JNJ

$JNJ has been in a down trend since the end of last year.  However, a double bottom may be in (see chart below).  If we close above the “neck line”, I like $JNJ long; first target ~$106.50.JNJ

$PFE

PFizer just closed at its all-time high today.  You can see that MACD is about to turn positive and volume was strong on today’s breakout.  The long wick is a little concerning, but this entry provides low risk/high reward.  First target is $36.03.PFE

$VLO

Lastly, Valero is on the cusp of a breakout to all time highs with MACD just starting to turn bullish.  If this one breaks out, I like a medium term target (approximately 1 month) of $68.45.VLO

  On My Radar:

$COH, $MA, $SBUX, $TIF, $WFC, $AAPL

Just a quick note on $AAPL; although it gapped up slightly, the candle was still one of indecision.  I’m still looking for the $129.50 entry.

That’s all for tonight.  Happy trading!

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Market Overview June 10, 2013.

Well today took me by surprise a bit.  I expected a stronger day than what we got, but the good news is that volume was low.  I’d like to say we can expect a larger bullish move tomorrow, but we will have to see.  One interesting item of note is looking what happened during the last two upward moves.  Take a look at (chart below) December 31, Jan 2 and Jan 3.  Now take a look at March 4, 5 and 6th.  Pretty similar, eh?  Now take a look at these past 3 trading days.  Almost identical!  Now I’m not saying that for sure we are going to follow similar patterns, but I think it’s a logical thought.  We are still above the MAs, but it would be nice to see oscillators start turning to support the move.  Time will tell.

Regarding my HD calls… well, I got greedy, in plain English.  I think because of my losses from CAT and BBBY, I wanted to really get a big return on HD.  I had it.  I was at 26% ROI and I didn’t lock in my gains.  I had set a mental target at 79.50, which we cleared up to around 79.68.  Instead of putting in my stop or just taking profits, I watched HD slowly decay away to where I am now sitting at 0% ROI.  Wonderful that I’m not in the hole, but such a shame to have lost all that profit.  I’m not out of the game yet, but my stop is nearby at 77.19.  I want to give the gap a chance to fill without getting whip sawed.  If I get stopped out, then so be it.  I definitely gave the trade a chance to do it’s thing, I just should have locked in profits at my target, which is something I need to be more disciplined on.  Live and learn!

As for yesterday’s picks: KO did not trigger. LOW did not trigger. SBUX would have triggered for a small profit, but I thought it opened too high, so I did not get in.  WMT did not trigger.  BA did not trigger, and TSLA did not trigger since it never got above yesterday’s close.

Stay tuned for tomorrow’s picks!

SPY_JUNE_11_2013

Picks for Tomorrow: KO, LOW, SBUX, WMT, BA, TSLA

Well ladies and gentlemen, I have a lot to look at, so let me go ahead and get started!

KO:  At the start of last week, it looks like we formed a tweezer bottom/reversal.  With oscillators bottoming out and starting to turn up, I like KO bullish with a close above 41.79.  Stop is 40.94 and my target is 43.05.  This gives me an ROI of slightly better than 1:1.  Not the best trade, and actually as I’m looking it over, I think this trade will take a lot of patience.    I’ll post it for reference.

KO_JUNE_10_2013

LOW: Similar situation as KO, but I like this trade a lot better.  Rather than waiting for a close, I would wait for confirmation after the first 15min.  Oscillators have reset and are starting to reverse bullishly.  We closed right on the 10 and 20 EMAs, so I think we have room to move up!  Stop = 40.72 and Target = 43.24.

LOW_JUNE_10_2013

SBUX:  We just made an all time high!  RSI changed direction bullishly and MACD/Stochs are pointing upward.  They have not crossed yet, so while they are moving bullishly, be cautious if you enter the trade.  My stop is at 63.75 and my target is 66.24.  This would be a 15min entry type trade.  This is another 1:1 trade.  Once again, as I’m looking at this one,  the risk/reward isn’t as good as it could be.  Keep an eye on it though!

SBUX_JUNE_10_2013

WMT:  This one looks good with a close over 77.35.  Target is 78.76 and my stop is 75.95.  This entry allows for a close above oscillators and gives MACD and Stochs to cross upward (although they are already pointing bullishly).  RSI has reversed.  This gives another approximate 1:1 ROI.

WMT_JUNE_10_13

BA:  Last but not least is BA.  BA has breached its all time high and is continuing it’s upward trend.  This is a 15min entry with a stop of 100.50 and a target of 105.01.  Not much to say about the oscillators or MAs as they have a similar story to the rest of the stocks I’ve looked at.  This trade has a 1.5:1 ratio.  This is probably my favorite trade of the lot!

BA_JUNE_10_2013

 

Also, take a look at TSLA.  I don’t have time to post a chart, but it looks like an early morning entry if it moves bullishly.

Goodnight all and happy trading!