Market Review for June 19, 2013

So Uncle Ben speaks today and the market nose dives.  Is this going to be a new trend?  Well to be honest, I have no idea where we go from here, but I’d like to think we’ll have a direction chosen by the end of the week.  I thought we would have been green this morning, but stocks started out rather flat and the DOW was down around 30 points prior to the Fed speaking.  That being said, I wasn’t surprised at how the market reacted after the meeting.  Unfortunately, I had some sort of lapse of judgement and got into a horrible position that I will discuss later on, but first, let’s look at SPY.

We are back into that triangle, but we do have support on the lower trend line which we could hit tomorrow or Friday.  In addition, we have both the 50 EMA and SMA to contend with that just happen to be sitting at that lower trend line.  As a result, I think the rest of the week will be down and that is where we bounce to go higher.  However, if we break through, well then the bearish move will still be on:

SPY_JUNE_19_2013

REAL POSITIONS

$JNJ:  CLOSED -6%  I knew that I needed to move my stop up to prevent any damaging losses and I’m very happy that I did.  I was around even at one point today, so I trailed my stop up.  I’m very thankful I had the foresight to do so.  After I was stopped out, the stock plunged down over a dollar.  I only wish that I had bought puts, but it wasn’t part of my plan so I did not do it.  Not a bad loss (I only had 2 contracts), but it could have been a better trade.

$FCX:  HOLDING  I am finally up 3% on this miserable trade.  My target is still 29.00 and I am holding true to that.  I will probably be up around 10% after commission if my target is reached.  I am happy that I have stuck through this trade.  

$JPM: ENTERED at 54.20.  I am furious with myself over this trade.  I got into this on pure speculation.  It was emotional, a gamble and not part of my trading plan.  For some reason, I had a feeling that financials were going to benefit from the Fed talk, so I bought 2 JPM contracts on a whim.  Stupid horrible idea.  I am down about 15% on the trade so far. Seeing as I believe the market is going to continue down and my contracts expire in August, I MAY hold my calls and I MAY play puts tomorrow assuming that the market and stock move that way.  I do see the 20 EMA as providing support for this stock, so I need to be careful.  I don’t want to get burned doubly.  I will have to wait and see how the market is going to open tomorrow.  I’d like to salvage this trade, but it may be wiser to just close my position and take advantage at a different and better time.  Simply awful.  To be honest, this one angers me more than the $VZ trade.  The $VZ trade was a pure accident, this was just buffoonery and greed.  

REVIEW OF YESTERDAY’S PICKS:

$FSLR:  Would have been a nice day trade short, but since I was playing closes, you would have gotten triggered in on the aggressive position but not the conservative one. 

$AEO:  You would have gotten triggered.  Would need to wait until tomorrow to see how that pans out.

$AAPL:  While you would have gotten triggered, I would not have take this one since it is getting very close to the next support line of 416.

$SLV:  Triggered.  I was so distracted by that JPM trade I totally missed this one.  Very disappointing!  I’m going to have to turn this into a “first 15min” trade tomorrow.

Nothing else looks like it would have triggered.

Stock picks up soon!

 

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Market Recap June 12, 2013. Interesting Day!

What an interesting day on the street today (even if not all that surprising).  You’d think that the bears are completely in control right now, but I do not endorse that notion just yet.  Tomorrow is going to be a day (I hope) where a direction is chosen.  Aside from sideways, (which is always possible) we are either going to bounce off of this short term double bottom and resume the bullish run OR we are going to break through support (see $SPX chart below) and the bears will be in town.  I like a close below 1596 on the SPX for a confirmation of the bears.  Despite oscillators being bearish, my gut tells me that we are going to get a bounce, but my gut does not drive the market. Therefore, I will be waiting and watching patiently to see what the market decides to do.SPX_JUNE_12_2013

Real Positions:

I got crushed on HD; stopped out for a 10% loss.  This is incredibly disappointing because I was up 26% on Monday and did not take profits even though my target was reached.  The market looked like it was off to a strong start so I just let it go.  Then on Tuesday I had a chance to take a 15% return, but refused because I wanted to get back to 26% and again today I had a chance for a 10% return but refused which ultimately landed me with a 10% loss.  Very disappointing, but a very good lesson learned:  Stick to your trading plan and take profits at your target or worse case, move your stop up to your target if you are over.  Learning when to let my profits run and when to take profits is a struggle for me right now, but I’m sure it is something I will develop as I grow and gain more knowledge and experience.

That being said, my $FCX trade triggered today.  I bought 3 August calls, of which I plan to sell (or at least move my stop) at $29.00 for a quick profit.  I will not play around with this trade like I did with $HD.

Let’s look at my picks from yesterday:

$Z would have been an excellent entry after 15min. You may still still be holding and trade down to the 100 MA

$GS short would have been excellent as well

$AXP Ditto

$SLV you would not have gotten triggered in because it was not below the entry price

$CAT you also would not have gotten triggered

$LNKD would not have triggered.  In addition, notice how we stopped right above the 100 MA.  It will be interesting to see if we bounce or keep on going down.

$FCX You would have gotten triggered in.  Let’s see how this trade plays out.

$PHM would really have been your call on getting in or not.  Waiting for a close below support would be the best idea, though.

Picks for tomorrow coming soon!

Picks for June 12, 2013 $FCX, $LNKD and $PHM

Hi all!  There are a number of stocks that could be solid plays for tomorrow.  I’ll list them, but will only go into detail on 3 due to time constraints.  Here is a small list of stocks to keep an eye on:

$Z 15min bearish entry

$GS 15min bearish entry

$AXP 15min bearish entry

$SLV same short entry as yesterday

$CAT entry below 82.56

Of these 4, $Z is my favorite for a 15min entry and SLV is still looking nice with a close below 20.72.

Now, here are 3 with a bit more detail:

$LNKD:  When I first looked at this chart, I was in love with shorting it.  However, I’m now noticing that the oscillators are starting to turn bullish.  That being said, I am waiting for a close below 164.92, so as we approach that entry, there is time for oscillators to turn back bearish.  There are three targets.  Starting from closest target to furthest: 159.94, 154.68, 140.35.  I will choose a stop as we get closer to the entry.LNKD_JUNE_12_2013

FCX:  FCX had pretty strong volume today.  It’s possible that the bulls may turn this one back north due to the doji candle today, but I like a bearish entry with a close below 29.93.  See chart for trade setup:FCX_JUNE_12_2013

$PHM:  Lastly is PHM.  To be honest, I’m not sure if this one is a good 15min entry or a close below entry.  Right now I have it as a 15min entry, but we are bumping into support over the past 5 days, so it may be more wise to wait for a close.  At any rate, oscillators are supporting a bearish move.  I like this one down to the 200 MA or to 18.81.

PHM_JUNE_12_2013Have a good night, all.  Happy Trading!

Market Overview from June 11, 2013

Good evening everyone.  Let me start by saying that when I checked the market at lunch time, I almost fell out of my chair when I saw we had faded the gap.  At that point I thought we were going to move higher, but the bullish recovery was only to be short lived.  Once again, I wish I had taken my profits in HD.  Now at the end of the day I am down slightly.  More lessons learned.  In an uncertain market, take profits and wait for a better opportunity to enter.  Now I need to hope for a bullish day tomorrow, but with the way Asian and Australian markets are acting right now, that doesn’t look like a good bet.

While I’m still neutral on the market, my tendency is to lean more bearish.  I think we will retest the 50 MA and the 161.20 level on the SPY.  From there we will either confirm the bearish move or bounce and come back up to retest recent all time highs.

See SPY chart below.  Notice we are approaching some strong support lines (50 MA and 161.20 as mentioned before, but we also have the short term downward trend line and we have the long/intermediate upward trend line.  SPY_JUNE_12_2013

 

Going over yesterday’s picks:  FSLR never triggered on 15min, WYNN never triggered on 15min, SLV did not close below my entry and DNKN you could have made $0.30 per share or you could have done well with options.  Despite the uncertain market, DNKN could keep moving upward with MACD crossed, and Stochs/RSI bullish.

What I’m Looking at For Tomorrow: FSLR, WYNN, SLV and DNKN

Greetings!  Here are the stocks I am looking at for tomorrow.

As I mentioned in my previous post, I think the market will continue upward, it’s just more of a matter of when.  I don’t think there is much to drag the market down at this point, but you never know.  As a result, almost all of my trades are bullish aside from SLV.

So let’s begin with FSLR.  This stock just looks flat out strong.  I know we have a wick staring us in the face, but I think the real target is the higher wick at 58.93.  We are above the MAs and all the indicators are turning up.  I would like to see MACD cross bullishly, but other than that the signs of bullishness are there.  This will be a 15min entry.  My stop will be where the two trend lines intersect, at 53.70.

FSLR_JUNE_11_2013

WYNN:  If you trust this trade, it has a very nice risk/reward ratio.  Indicators are turning up, but again it would be nice to see MACD cross bullishly to confirm the resumption of the bullish trend.  This one is a 15min entry.  I like the looks of it.  Let’s see if the market cooperates.

WYNN_JUNE_11_2013

 

SLV:  This one could either be a double bottom or the breaking of resistance.  Right now I am looking for it to break support and enter on a close below 20.72.  If that does happen, then the next target is 19.36.  Again, I would like MACD to turn down to support the trend, but stochs have turned and RSI is supporting.

SLV_JUNE_11_2013

 

Lastly, we have DNKN.  MACD crossed today (just barely!).  The other oscillators are pointing upward, we are above the MAs and today was a low volume day.  I think this guy will be bullish even it takes a week or so to reach the target.  This is a 15min entry for me with a target of 42.58 and a stop of 40.65.

DNKN_JUNE_11_2013

 

Best of luck to all and happy trading!