1/23/18 Market Update

Current Positions:

$AAPL: 2 February $180 calls.  Current Status: -17.9%.  Target 1:  182.13   Target 2: 189.59  Earnings:  1 February

$DIS: 25 shares.  Current Status: +0.55%. Plan: Sell at Target 1: $113.16.    Earnings: 6 Feb

$WMT: 2 March $100 calls.  Current Status: 2nd contract +81.58% Plan:  Sell at Target 2: 108.69  Earnings:  15 Feb

$WYNN: 1 February $175 calls  Current Status: +138.5%  CLOSED

New:

$C:  2 March $77.5 calls.  Current status:  +6.7% Target 1: $79.64  Target 2: $81.97  Earnings: April

$EBAY: 2 February $38 calls.  Current status: +19.3%  Target: $40.12
Earnings:  31 January

$IWM:  2 March $157 calls.  Current Status: +27.2%  Target: $162.09

$MCD:  2 February $175 calls.  Current Status: -0.74%  Target 1:  $179.06  Target 2:  $183.31 Earnings:  30 January

 

In addition to the above, I also cover: $SPY, $QQQ, $FCX, $FB $KORS, $KO $LULU, $TSLA

Videos here (parts 1 and 2)

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1/22/18 Market Update

Current Positions:

$AAPL: 2 February $180 calls.  Current Status: +2.38%.  Target 1:  182.13   Target 2: 189.59  Earnings:  1 February

$DIS: 25 shares.  Current Status: +0.55%. Plan: Sell at Target 1: $113.16.    Earnings: 6 Feb

$WMT: 2 March $100 calls.  Current Status: 2nd contract +66.5% Plan:  Sell at Target 2: 108.69  Earnings:  15 Feb

$WYNN: 1 February $175 calls  Current Status: +57.26%  Plan:  Target 1: 178.35  Target 2: 188.58.  Earnings:  1 Feb

New:

$C:  2 March $77.5 calls.  Current status:  +1.72% Target 1: $79.64  Target 2: $81.97  Earnings: April

$EBAY: 2 February $38 calls.  Current status: -19.6%  Target: $40.12
Earnings:  31 January

$IWM:  2 March $157 calls.  Current Status: +14.7%  Target: $162.09

$MCD:  2 February $175 calls.  Current Status: 0%  Target 1:  $179.06  Target 2:  $183.31 Earnings:  30 January

 

In addition to the above, I also cover: $SPY, $QQQ, $FCX, $KORS, $LULU, $TSLA

Video here

1/18/18 Market Update

Current Positions:

$AAPL: 2 February $180 calls.  Current Status: +19%.  Target 1:  182.13   Target 2: 189.59  Earnings:  1 February

$DIS: 25 shares.  Current Status: +1.8%. Plan: Sell at Target 1: $113.16.    Earnings: 6 Feb

$HD: 2 February $195 calls.  Current Status:  Second contract status:  +49% CLOSED Plan:  Target 2: $202.27.    Earnings:  13 Feb

$JNJ: 2 February $145 calls.  Current Status:  +26% CLOSED Earnings: 23 January.

$WMT: 2 March $100 calls.  Current Status: 30%; 1 contract sold for 30% Plan:  Sell at Target 2: 108.69  Earnings:  15 Feb

 

See today’s video for details:

1/17/18 Stock Picks

Current Positions:

$AAPL: 2 February $180 calls.  Current Status:  -17%.  Plan:  I entered Apple via the 5minute rule, but it did not hold its gains.  It closed right around the breakout level, so I’m looking for a bounce tomorrow.    Earnings:  1 February

$DIS: 25 shares.  Current Status: 0.82%. Plan: Sell at Target 1: $113.16.     Well, I put in a limit order for 113.10, but not in time for it to execute.  It was my own fault for not putting in the order prior to market open.  Now I’ll wait to see if it bounces off of the ascending triangle. Earnings: 6 Feb

$HD: 2 February $195 calls.  Current Status:  Second contract status:  +26%.  Plan: Another ugly candle today, but still not breaking any trends. Target 2: $202.27.    Earnings:  13 Feb

$JNJ: 2 February $145 calls.  Current Status:  +23%Plan:  Trim 1 call at Target 1: 148.63.  Ensure position is closed prior to earnings.  The gains didn’t quite hold, but better than a lot of other stocks today.  Still looking solid.  Earnings: 23 January.

$WMT: 2 March $100 calls.  Current Status: 0%. Plan: My plan remains to trim 1 call at Target 1: $103.85.  Quite a bit of action on WMT today.  Bullish trend is still in tact. Earnings:  15 Feb

 

Please see my YouTube video for actual analysis here:

 

1/16/18 Stock Picks

On Friday, we enjoyed another solid bullish move in the  markets.  I think we’re starting to get a bit over-extended/overbought here, but by managing risk through setting stops, I’m confident in nibbling on small bullish positions.

Current Positions:

$DIS: 25 shares.  Current Status: 2.2%. Plan: Sell at Target 1: $113.16.     Earnings: 6 Feb

$HD: 2 February $195 calls.  Current Status: Closed one contract for 35 gain%. Plan: HD had an ugly candle on Friday.  Not sure what caused the massive sell-off in the afternoon.  However, I’m still holding one contract, look at Target 2: $202.27.    Earnings:  13 Feb

$IWM: 2 March $157 calls.  Current Status: Closed position for 46% gain.  I only intended to close 1 contract, but had a lag in my app where I inadvertently sold two.  I’m tempted to get back in with one contract, but don’t want to push my luck since Target 1 was hit.  I’m very happy with the profit I locked in.

$JNJ: 2 February $145 calls.  Current Status:  +4.5%.  Plan:  Trim 1 call at Target 1: 148.63.  Ensure position is closed prior to earnings.  Earnings: 23 January.

$WMT: 2 March $100 calls.  Current Status: 0%. Plan: My plan remains to trim 1 call at Target 1: $103.85.  Not the prettiest candle, but there’s no reason why we can’t continue higher.  Earnings:  15 Feb

Breaking Out

$AAPL:  After flirting with the line for a while, Apple finally saw a breakout.  I’m not in love with $AAPL’s price action, but I do think it’s worth taking a trade here assuming the 5 minute candle rule works out.  Target 1:  $182.13  Target2:  $189.59.AAPL

$BEAT:  I’m honestly not familiar with this company, but based on the chart, it has broken out and looks like it has room to run.  Friday was a strong candle and I’d be interested in buying shares instead of options (due to low OPT interest) assuming successful 5minute rule.  Target 1: $34.14  Target 2:  $36.42BEAT.png

$MMM: 3M had a breakout-ish candle on Friday.  Again, not the prettiest candle, but it is technically above the breakout line.  I would consider a small position based on the 5 minute rule.  Target 1:  $249.06  Target 2:  $255.33MMM.png

$PYPL:  PayPal technically broke out on Thursday, with confirmation on Friday.  5 minute rule to get in on the action.  Target 1:  $82.27   Target 2:  $86.02PYPL.png

Other Types of Breakouts

$C:  Citigroup broke out of it’s wedge/triangle pattern on Friday.  Although it still needs to get through it’s breakout price level ($77.83), the fact it broke bullishly from the pattern is a positive sign.  I would consider getting in tomorrow based on the 5 minute rule.  Target 1:  $79.64.    Target 2:  $81.97C.png

$DNKN:  Who doesn’t like Dunkin Donuts? haha  Well even if you’re not a fan, you should like the strong bounce off of the 50% Fib re-tracement price.  Once again, observe the 5 minute rule, and if it permits, get in the trade.  Breakout line:  $66.43   Target 1: $68.35  Target 2:  $70.82.DNKN.png

 

1/12

After a pause on the 10th, the market had a powerfully bullish day yesterday on average volume.  I’m looking for more upside today.

Current Positions:

$DIS: 25 shares.  Current Status: +.91%. Plan: sell at Target 1: $113.16.     Disney looks to have bounced off of it’s ascending trend line and is set to run.  Earnings: 6 Feb

$HD: 2 February $195 calls.  Current Status: +6.16%. Plan: Trim 1 call on the way to Target 2: $202.27.   Home Depot had a nice strong day pushing above the stagnancy of the last few days.  This ought to be the start of another leg up.  Earnings:  13 Feb

$IWM: 2 March $157 calls.  Current Status: +52.21%. Plan: Trim 1 call at Target 1: $158.28.  Big breakout today.  Lot’s of room to run.  I like this position.  Earnings:

$WMT: 2 March $100 calls.  Current Status: -8.55%. Plan: Trim 1 call at Target 1: $103.85. Walmart filled the gap and then back tested.  I’ll be watching it rather closes as it needs to show it can break out.  Earnings:  15 Feb

What I’m Watching Today:

$CAT:  This one is a bit risky since it passed it’s first target, but the stock has been so strong, it’s difficult to ignore.  I’m thinking of either buying 1 ITM call or buying a couple of OTM calls with a target of $175.81.CAT

$JNJ:  Johnson & Johnson closed above the “breakout” line yesterday.  I’ll be watching on the 5min chart for a close above the first 5min candle before getting in.  I think this play has some good potential to run.  Target1:  $148.63  Target2:  $154.01.JNJ.png

$MMM:  3M has been a very strong stock in the intermediate term and showed strength yesterday after a weak Wednesday.  I don’t expect to get into this trade today, but I’ll be watching for a close above the “breakout” line of $244.19.MMM.png

$SBUX: Starbucks is back on my radar and is setting up for a breakout.  Again, I’m not crazy about this stock due to over head resistance, but I will keep an eye on it.  Target 1:  $61.13   Target 2:  $62.58SBUX.png

 

 

1/11/18

Good evening!  Interesting day in the market.  We had an early sell-off that recovered.  I see this as a mere pause in the action before charging higher.

I’m still holding $HD calls.  Nothing exciting happened today.  Had some time decay.  My stop is at $191, so I still have a dollar or so at risk before potentially getting stopped out.

Let’s take a look at some potential plays for tomorrow, my favorites being $AXP, $DIS, and $LVS.

Breaking Out:

$AXP and $JPM are both breaking out.  Personally, I like the $AXP play better than the $JPM play because $AXP has a slightly cleaner chart and more room to run, but both have good potential.  I would apply the 5min rule before getting into either of these positions.  $AXP Target 1:  $102.50  Target 2: $105.    $JPM Target 1: $111.06  Target 2: $114.69.  AXPJPM

Second Target Push

$FB and $NFLX paused yesterday, but had better days today, particularly $NFLX.  I really like the $NFLX play here assuming it satisfies the 5min rule.  My biggest concern with $NFLX is that it’s reporting earnings after market close on 22 January, so there isn’t a lot of time to let this trade breath.  In either event, assuming I got into the trade, I would set my stop at the low of today’s candle.  $FB Target 2:  $193.73  $NFLX Target 2: $222.24. FBNFLX

Still Trying to Breakout-Out

A number of stocks are still on the cusp of breaking out.  I’m keeping an eye on: $IWM, $JNJ, $PYPL and $SBUX.  Of all of these, $JNJ is probably my favorite since MACD crossed and is bullish.  A potential $10 gain for a $2.5 risk.  However, be aware that $JNJ reports earnings on 23 January.  I would not get into any of these until the last 5-15 minutes of the day with price solidly above the breakout price.PYPLSBUX.pngJNJ.pngIWM.png

Bouncing

$LVS is bouncing off of it’s 50EMA.  Stochastics are turning up, as is MACD, although MACD has yet to cross.  RSI has plenty of room to run.  It has a reward of $9 with a risk of just $1.5. Keep in mind that earnings is on 24 January.  Targets:  1:  $72.24  2:  $75.3  3:  $79.25LVS

$DIS.  This trade could easily go against you based on the technicals.  However, if the bullish trend continues as it has over the last few weeks, we could see a bounce with a nice gain.  Notice the ascending trend line that has acted as support 3 times in the past.  If it holds a fourth time, I’d be looking at a target of $113.16.  I’m not sure I would hold beyond that due to overhead resistance, but for a swing trade, there’s extremely low risk.  I would get in on the 5minute rule OR, if $DIS gaps up and comes back down to the trend line, I would enter a small position with a tight stop.  I’ll have  my eye on this one tomorrow.DIS

1/8/18 – New Year New Approach

It’s been over a year since I wrote on my blog, but one of my new year’s resolutions is to take more time studying stocks and making proper investments and trades.  Today’s blog will look at some stocks that are breaking out, others that are close to breaking out, another in a bullish continuation pattern and finally one risky, but interesting stock.  So here we go:

Breaking Out:

$FB:  $FB has broken out from it’s short term channel and is moving up.  Target 1:  188.34, Target 2:  193.73.  FB

$HD:  I see HD as a little risky as it’s been in a steady upward trend for a while now.  Not to say that it couldn’t continue, but you may want a tight stop if you’re planning on getting in.  Target1:  $193.29  Target2: $202.27.HD

$MA:  $MA had a great day on Friday and cleared through the first target of $158.25.  Since it’s already through the first target, I would consider a small position to see if it can reach target 2:  $163.12  MACD is rather flat and RSI is high as well.  Be careful here.MA

$NFLX:  Target1: $212.36, Target 2: $222.24NFLX

$FLIR:  This is probably my favorite breakout play of the 5 breaking out stocks I’ve identified since it’s been consolidating for the last few weeks.  I would wait for confirmation at the open tomorrow before entering (i.e. when looking at a daily 5min chart, ensure the we get a close ABOVE the close of the first 5min candle.  This isn’t a fool proof method, but it’s rather reliable.  Target 1: $50.67  Target 2: $53.95FLIR

Breakout Potential:

$AAPL:  $AAPL has been consolidating the last few weeks.  If it closes above $176.34, it could reach Target 1: $182.13 and Target 2:  $189.59AAPL

$IGT:  $IGT is an interesting play.  It had a strong day on Friday and while it has not broken out, it has bounced off of the 50% FIB re-tracement and is following an upward trend line.  If you’re comfortable getting in now with a tight stop below the low on Thursday, it could pay off nicely.  Or you could choose to wait until it breaks out and closes above $29.40.  Target 1:  31.30  Target  2: 33.76IGT

$SBUX:  I’m not in love with this trade since there is some resistance above Target 1: ($61.13).  Target 2 would be $62.58 SBUX

Trending:

$DAN: This stock has been in a solid up trend since July 2016 off of it’s low of $9.80.  Target 1: $34.93  Target 2: $36.75.  OR, this could be a stock you want to hold onto.   Also notice that MACD is turning up, Stochs are pointed up, as is RSI.  DAN

Risk and Reward

$VRX:  This is a pharmaceutical stock, which are typically risky by nature, $VRX being no exception.  A few years ago $VRX was ~$260 and fell over time down to $8.31.  It’s currently at $23.85.  I’m not saying it will get back to $260 and while there’s some overhead resistance to watch out for (see chart below), there is some potential for this stock to grow.  Proceed with caution, but keep it in mind.VRX

Picks for Tuesday, July 16: $CAT, $LULU, $FLSR

So today I am just going to take a look at 3 potential plays.  1 brackett, 1 long and 1 15min rule.  So let’s begin!

$CAT:  First off, let me thank #Tradesmartu.com for pointing out this trade.  It looks like we could go in either direction with this stock.  On the bullish side, we need a close above today’s wick as well as a close above the 200 SMA.  Target is 90.60.  Stop is TBD.  On the short side, I like a close below 84.85 and a target of 81.48.  Stop is TBD.CAT_JULY_16_2013

$LULU:  I got burned on this stock a few weeks ago, but it’s looking like a good play is setting up.  There are some long term trend lines, the 200 SMA and recent wicks I’d like to close above.  In addition, there is an ascending triangle forming which I outlined in pink.  I like a close above 66.85 with a target of 70.40.  Stop is TBD.    Notice there is a short trade as well.  That was from a few weeks ago, but it may be valid depending on how LULU behaves.  For now, I am looking at the bullish trade.LULU_JULY_16_2013

$FSLR:  Here is the 15min trade.  It looks like we just had a nice pop on increasing volume. I think FLSR is a strong play with a target of 56.30.  My stop is 48.56.  This trade has an excellent R/R if it plays out as expected.  I think I will leg into this trade with one contract and get a couple more if the trend continues.  FSLR_JULY_16_2013

That about does it.  Best of luck with all your trades.

Market Recap for July 15, 2013

Hi all.  I just want to apologize for missing the last couple of days.  The summer is proving difficult to keep up with work, leisure, family/friends, and stocks.  As a result, the blog is slipping off the plate.  Therefore, I make no promises on how often I update, but I would like to be able to update at least 3 times per week during the summer.  That is my short term goal with my long term goal of updating daily once the summer winds down in a few months.

So.  Today we had another all-time high close but the end of the day saw a slight sell-off.  I think we are due for another turn down, draw down, whatever you want to call, but I think the bears are sniffing around.  That being said, I would not enter short unless tomorrow really does sell-off.

REAL LIFE ACCOUNT:

$DIS:  HOLDING (-15%)  I entered this at the wrong time.  I think my strategy is going to focus more on formations rather than intermediate support and resistance lines.  I want to focus on strong pivot points, trend lines and patterns ready to break out.  That is my new focus when looking at trades.

$HES:  HOLDING (-2%)  See comments on DIS.  I should have gotten in early, but I was worried about an intermediate resistance that probably was something more to be aware of than to place a trade around.  

$DMND:  HOLDING (+11%)  Finally, a good trade!  I am moving my stop up but DMND looks strong to me.  It’s due for a down day or two, but I think overall we are heading to 24.00

$WLT:  HOLDING (+55%)  This is good, but not as good as it looks.  I wrote a $12 put that expires this Friday.  I’d be happy to own this stock and write calls against it if it channels or declines.  Similarly if it rises, I’m happy to write puts as it goes up.

Picks for tomorrow coming soon.