Market Review July 10, 2013

Today was a pretty boring day.  Nothing really happened in the markets even with the FOMC.  SPY closed a few pennies above it’s close from yesterday.  The DOW finished pennies below while the NASDAQ had a rather strong bullish day.  I am still bullish on the markets.  It’s not really worth posting charts today, so I will get into the next segment:

REVIEW OF YESTERDAY’S PICKS:

$BTU:  No Trigger.

$COST:  You’d have been triggered in.  Not much action.

$DECK:  No Trigger

$QCOM:  No Trigger

$CELG:  You would have been triggered in; up a few pennies.

$XONE: You would have been triggered in, but as pointed out, there are no options for this stock, unfortunately.

$DMND:  You would have been triggered in; down a few pennies.

REAL ACCOUNT ACTIVITY:

$UA:  HOLDING (+2%) I still expect a bullish move north.

$LNKD:  HOLDING (-8%)  I’m not sure what to think here, but it seems, at least on the daily chart, that we found a bottom.  I expect we go back to retest 195.

$DMND: OPENED (-14%)  A lot of this loss is due to commission and the bid/ask spread. I expect to rebound in the coming days.

$AXP:  CLOSED (+17%)  I am grateful I was able to get out before the plunge down today.  Wish I had shorted, but such is life.

That’s about it for my open positions.  Picks for tomorrow coming soon.

Trader Remorse and Market Recap for Tuesday, July 9

The bulls are here to stay!!  Or are they?  Taking a look at the S&P ($SPX) (posted below), I’m seeing that today we were one penny shy of the high from 6/18.  What happened after that?  Two rather colossal down days.  I’m not predicting that happens, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we had a little down day that tests the bottom trend line and perhaps even the 50 SMA.  One big difference between now and then is that MACD had not crossed whereas now it has crossed and looks strong.  Looking at the $SPY, we broke above that bottom trend line, but I would like to see some stronger volume coming into play.  Lastly, looking at the $DOW, we have not cracked the overhead resistance line that started forming with the wick on 5/21.  I would like to see a break above this line.  Overall, I am bullish on this market…. for now.SPX_JULY_9_2013

REAL ACCOUNT ACTIVITY:

I had no picks from yesterday, so I’m moving straight into the real account activity.  I have to be honest, I am getting incredibly discouraged.  A few more abysmal days and I may begin paper trading until I see some more consistent results.  My account is down 50% from when I first start in early 2012.  Granted I didn’t know what I was doing that, but even with the knowledge and technical experience I have gained, I am still down about 20% since March.  Part of this is due to bad technical analysis (see the $LULU and $POT trades).  Others due to stupid mistakes (see $VZ) trade, but overall I feel like I am psyching myself out because of the losses I have incurred.  I am not taking profits when I should because I am trying to let the stocks run and I am incurring losses that are too large on the losing side.  All this compounds into big down days.  Now, I am playing with options which may also be part of the cause, but I just do not have the money to be buying 100 shares of various stocks and then trying to write covered calls etc.  Again, I think I may move over to paper trading for a little while until I start becoming more successful.  The last thing I want to do is blow up my account.    Anyway, here is the review:

$AAPL:  CLOSED (-11%).  I was up 15% at one point early this morning, but due to being at work I was unable to move my stop down and maintain my profit.  I also had the through of “letting the trade breath” but my stop was hit and the rest was history.  Very disappointed I wasn’t able to take profits when I wanted.

$AAPL:  OPEN/CLOSED (+2%).  I entered in long once AAPL was above $3 on the day.  I made a measly gain that I closed out at around $419.  I was spooked by the earlier trade, but had I waited I would have just about pared my loss.

$LNKD: HOLDING (-2%).  From up 11% to down 2%.  I’m not exactly expecting a rebound tomorrow.  Looking at the past 6 months, a down day is almost always followed by another down day.  I will probably get stopped out.

$AXP:  HOLDING (+24%).  This trade looks good percentage-wise (and it is).  But compared to the AAPL and LULU loss, it is a small gain.  I am moving my stop up to lock-in gains.

$UA:  HOLDING (+3%).  I’m not overly confident with this trade any more.  I’ve moved my stop up to avoid any significant loss.

I truly feel like I am very close to doing well in this thing called trading, but I need to figure out better risk management especially when trading options.  I certainly do not want to give up, but paper trading may be the only way to salvage my account while I find my groove.

Market Review for Monday July 8, 2013

Good evening all!  I want to apologize for not posting on Friday and Sunday.  I was on vacation and unable to post.  Then, due to flight delays, I was unable to post on Sunday.  At any rate, I am back in business, so let’s get started.

Today was yet another doji, but we closed above the 50 MA again.  Volume was bland but oscillators and indicators support the bullish trend.  Ideally, I would really like to get above the bottom bullish trend line as well as resistance at 166.01.  For now, I am bullish on the market unless something proves otherwise.  SPY_JULY_9_2013

REVIEW OF PREVIOUS PICKS/REAL ACCOUNT:

$UA:  HOLDING (+3%)  This stock still looks bullish.  I like a target of 64.20.  I have my stop at 60.40. 

$MCD:  Never got triggered.  I still like this one bullish on a close above 100.90 with a target of 102.75

$XONE:  No trigger.  I still think this stock is way over extended and due for a big pullback.

$LULU:  CLOSED (-20%) This one was a technical mistake.  I should have used the wick from 6/12 and for some reason I ignored it.  Entering on a close below that wick would have been appropriate.  Unfortunately, that wick provided support at the stock bounced.  I like a bullish entry on a close above 66.85.

$AXP:  HOLDING (+10%)  I think this stock is strong, but I was not crazy about today’s close.  I may buy protective puts depending on the price action tomorrow.  For now my target is at 78.00 and my stop is at 75.00

$LNKD:  HOLDING (+11%) I think this stock is very strong.  I have my stop at 187.  I’m looking at targets of 194.60 and 200.00.

$TLT:  Would have been a nice trade on Friday, but today it rebounded.  You would have hit your target on Wednesday or Friday.

$AAPL:  HOLDING (-2%)  I am short AAPL back down to $400 with a stop at 417.

I am not going to be able to post picks for tomorrow due to time constraints, but I hope to be back in the swing of things tomorrow.  I think we will have another bullish day tomorrow.  I’m hoping AAPL continues its newly downward trend.  Good night all, and good luck!

Picks for July 5, 2013: $UA, $MCD, $XONE, $LULU, $AXP, $TLT, $GOOG

Happy 4th everyone!  With a half day of trading yesterday, the market has some time to “marinate” and hopefully make an indication of which direction it is going to take.  So let’s begin with some picks:

$UA:  I believe this stock is very strong.  A close above 60.96 looks to be a great long entry point.  However, if you want to be aggressive and believe we are going higher, you can enter on a 15min indication.  Indicators are pointing up, but I would ideally like to see volume increase on the bullish move.  UA_JULY_5_2013

$MCD:  It looks like we are breaking out of a short term bearish channel.  You may want to wait for a close above 100.55 or if you want to be more aggressive, you could take a 15min bullish trade.  Target is 102.75.MCD_JULY_5_2013

$XONE:  It looks like this bubble is bursting.  Notice the speed lines I drew.  The most recent line prior to yesterday’s drop is almost vertical.  I think this has a ways to drop.  My target is $53.45 or the speed line I highlighted.  Moreover, yesterday’s candle was a bullish-engulfing candle.  My stop will go above the first 15min candle.  This is definitely a 15min entry.XONE_JULY_5_2013

 

$LULU:  Bracket trade here:  I think the stronger probability is a bearish trade, but the bulls can still win out.  Bearish I like an entry of 63.80 with target of 61.60 and 59.65.  On the bullish side I like an entry of 66.85 and a target of 70.40.LULU_JULY_5_2013

 

$AXP:  What the heck, I’ll do one more since it’s a holiday.  AXP also looks like a bracket set-up.  Bearish entry is a close below 72.90 with a target of 70.45.  Bullish, I like an entry of 76.30 with a target of 78.20.AXP_JULY_5_2013

A couple of other little bonuses:

$TLT: I still like this short with a target of 107.78.  15min entry.

$GOOG:  I still like our entry of 895. with a target of 920.

Enjoy the rest of your holiday and happy trading!

Market Recap July 3, 2013

Happy Independence Day, Everyone!!

As we know, today was a half day of trading.  Taking that into account, it looks like volume was on par with yesterday’s action in the overall market.  However, we once again failed the 50 MA.  I’m not sure if or when we will break it, but I truly wish the market would pick a direction and get back into a trend.  Although it’s been true for over a week, it’s very obvious that we are range bound by the 50 and 100 SMAs.  Notice that Stochs are turning up as is MACD.  This could be an early signal that the bulls are ready to take control.  But as always, only time will tell.  I have re-assessed my analysis with a more defined bracket trade.  Currently, we look to be in a downward expanding triangle.  A break out of this trend (and subsequently a break above the 50 SMA) should send us higher.  A break below the 100 should keep this short term bearish trend in tact.  SPY_JULY_3_2013

REVIEW OF YESTERDAY’S PICKS:

$TLT:  You would have gotten triggered in bearish on the 15min rule finishing the day up $0.17.

$COST:  No Trigger

$UA:  No trigger, but it looks like Friday could be a good entry.

$GOOG: No trigger, but keep an eye on this one.  That bottom trend line looks strong.

REAL ACCOUNT ACTIVITY:

$POT:  HOLDING (-22%)  I see now that I probably went short right at support.  It’s all in the perspective of how you draw your trend lines.  I should have used the wick from the candle on 11/26.  Although percentage wise I’m down considerably, I am not down much monetarily.  My stop is remaining in place.  If I get stopped out on Friday, then so be it.

That wraps things up for tonight.  I hope to have some picks up tomorrow.  Again, wishing everyone a safe, fun, happy 4th!

Picks for Tomorrow July 3, 2013: $TLT, $COST, $UA, $GOOG

**Please note that the market closes at 1:00PM EST tomorrow.**

$TLT:  This is a bit of a risky trade in the sense that confirmation isn’t strong, but very low risk given your R/R ratio.  I think we will bounce off of that upper trendline down to around 107.82.  Although oscillators are turning up, it looks like we are in a bearish flag on declining volume.  So those are the major points of this trade.  I like this one on a 15min entry bearish.

$COST:  I have been watching this one for a while and I like it long on a close above 112.55.  Target is 115.40.COST_JULY_2_2013

$UA:  I like this one long as well on a close above 60.96.  I would really like to see volume pick up if we close above that entry point to confirm the trade.  I think this has a lot of upside with a target of 65.50.UA_JULY_3_2013

 

$GOOG:  The mighty Google.  Is it’s bullish run over?  It could be, but I think it has legs to run long if it breaks above 895.  Target is 920.  Notice that this would be an entry above a horizontal resistance and a short term downward trend line.  Stop is TBD.GOOG_JULY_3_2013

That’s about all for now.  Keep an eye and best of luck with all of your trades!

Picks and Observations for Friday June 28, 2013: $AMZN, $BTU, $VLO, $UA

Another day down, another set of trade setups coming up next!

$AMZN:  I think we are currently in no-mans land to take a solid position.  That being said, if we close above 284.80 enter long.  If we fall below 273.21, enter short.  AMZN_JUNE_28_2013

$BTU:  This guy has been on a decline lately and I don’t see that decline letting up any time soon.  We are in some sort of pennant/mini triangle.  A break below 14.30 and I’ll take this trade bearish down to 12.90.BTU_JUNE_28_2013

$VLO:  This stock is just in a strong downward channel.  We had a little bearish flag yesterday and I believe, with confirmation, this could be a great short entry to take after the first 15min and follow it down to 33.23 again.  I’m not super confident with this trade, but I am definitely keeping an eye on it.VLO_JUNE_28_2013

$UA:  Well I got burnt by this stock short and I will be doing all i can to avoid that scenario again.  Here I have UA set up as a bracket trade.  For a short entry, I want a close below 57.59.  For a long entry, I want a close above 60.96.UA_JUNE_28_2013

Goodnight all and good luck.

Market Review from June 21, 2013

Hello everyone.  Hope you all are having a great weekend so far.  Mine has been quite busy, but I’m finally ready to get this update posted, so let’s go!

What a wild day on Friday!  From a green open to a faded gap and then back and forth from there.  We ended up closing in the green, but only by 41 points on the DOW.  Volume  was very strong (even stronger than Thursday) as we kissed the 100 SMA on $SPY and just missed touching it on the DOW.  The candle from yesterday was a doji on both indicies which COULD signify a reversal back bullishly.  However, MACD and Stochs are still bearish so I would not just assume that we are heading back up until we get some sort of confirmation.  Ideally I’d like to see a close above 1600 on the S&P which would give me some moderate confirmation of a bullish reversal.  Time will tell, but there should be plenty of good trade setups on Monday and the rest of the week.  See chart below of $SPY:SPX_JUNE_21_2013

REVIEW OF YESTERDAY’S PICKS:

$DE:  You would have gotten triggered in at 82.89 and could have gotten out at 81.75 for over a dollar move.  If you held for the day, you’d have been up 0.42 cents.  Great trade!

$DIS:  Well it is possible that you could have gotten triggered into this trade, but to me it just didn’t feel right.  I would not have taken this trade.  If you did get in, you would have gotten in at 62.30.  You could have gone up about 0.40 cents if you sold at the day’s low, but realizing we were at the low of the day would have been very difficult, unless you were trailing your stop, then you may have broken even.  If you held for the day you would have lost 0.43 cents.  Not a good trade.

$FDX we did not close below the target so no trade would have been triggered.

$UA:  I wanted to get into this trade, but we were down so big so early, I was a little afraid of it so I stayed out.  Had you gotten in, you would have been triggered at 56.85.  Selling at the low of the day would have given you 0.59 cents.  Holding till the end of the day would have put you down 0.03 cents.  Not a great trade.  You could have made some money if you trailed your stop.

$JPM would not have worked out

$AAPL you would have gotten triggered in.  I did not get in, but I am seriously considering it on Monday with 15min confirmation.

$BIDU you would not have gotten triggered

$CSX you would have gotten triggered in at the end of the day.  I wish I had taken this trade, but I was not at the computer at the end of the day.

$FCX: you would not have been triggered into this trade

$HAL: You would not have been triggered into this trade.

$IBM:  This is another trade I would have liked to have legged into.

$O:  You would have gotten triggered in.  Profits on low of the day, still a small profit if still holding at the end of the day.

$VLO:  Great day trade.  I took this one.  I’ll cover it in the next section

$DVY:  You would have gotten triggered in.  Profit if sold at low of the day, would have lost if held until close.

REAL ACCOUNT ACTIVITY:

$JPM  CLOSED (37% LOSS)  OUCH!  This was a really stupid trade from the beginning since I got in on a whim and then I did not manage my loss.  However, this is a perfect trade to learn from, and believe me, I will learn going forward.

$VLO OPENED+CLOSED (+24% ROI)  I was watching this stock in the AM and was able to get in after I saw the stair step forming between 10:00 and 10:10.  I was able to get out after the tweezer bottom formed.  I am very proud of myself for recognizing when to get in and out of this trade.  One of the best trades I’ve done in my short career.  I’m hopeful for more in the coming days and weeks.  I feel like my analysis is getting stronger, but time will tell!

Picks and observations coming up tomorrow.  Goodnight all and GO BRUINS! 🙂

Picks and Predictions for June 21, 2013: $DE, $DIS, $FDX, $UA

BEAR, SHORT.  Those are two words I will be using quite a bit to describe my picks tonight.  Let’s get started, shall we?

DE:  I like this one as a 15 minute entry, short.  ADX is turning up.  We are below all MAs and oscillators support the move.  Volume wasn’t enormous today, but higher than the past few weeks.  83.62 was my original entry point, so if you are already in, great!  Target is 81.60.DE_June_21_2013

DIS:  We close below my entry by one measly penny today!  If you are not in, then after the first 15min, get in (with confirmation).  My stop would be at 63.74 and the first target is the 100 SMA.  The second target is 57.82.  This trade provides a 2:1 R/R ratio.DIS_JUNE_21_2013

$FDX:  This guy had a big down day today.  Unfortunately he’s sitting right above his 200 SMA.  I would like to see a close below 95.10.  My stop would be above the 200 SMA with my first target at 93.18 and the second target at 92.35.FDX_JUNE_21_2013

UA:  I see huge upside with this trade.  15min entry bearish.  Oscillators support and we are below all of the MAs.  Volume could have been better, but I still like the trade.  Target is 54.71.  Stop is at 59.32.  This is a 3:1 R/R ratio trade.UA_JUNE_21_2013

Here are a couple extra stock to look at:

$JPM 15min short

$AAPL short on a close under 416

$BIDU short on a close below 92.00

$CSX short on a close below 23.75

$FCX short on a close below 27.20

$HAL short on a close below 41.30

$IBM short on a close below 196.00

$O 15min short.

$VLO 15min short

$DVY 15min short.

Happy trading, all!

Picks for June 17, 2013: $VZ, $AAPL, $DD, $DIS, $FSLR, $HAL, $JCP, $UA

Here we are on the eve of a market on the verge of a breakout (we hope) in either direction.  The hope is that a trend forms so that we can choose a direction.  Let’s see what’s in the works for Monday:

$VZ:  This on looks like it’s on the verge or just beginning a bullish move.  I like a 15min entry on Monday as long as the price movement supports the bullish move.  My targets are  52.37 and 53.58.  Stop is at 50.14.  This is about a 3:1 move at the ultimate target.  Oscillators support the move, but volume has been declining.  Hopefully we get some strong volume tomorrow.

VZ_JUNE_17_2013

$AAPL:  This one looks good bearishly on a close below 428.  The first target would be 416.63; ultimately we could get back to $383.00.  I would not take this bearish trade unless we close strongly below 428 with supporting volume.  Fortunately, oscillators are supporting the bearish move.  Let’s see what Monday brings:

AAPL_JUNE_17_2013

$DD:  This one is a good candidate for a 15min short.  We close well below my entry point of 53.38 on strong volume.  Oscillators are supporting the bearish move.  I think we are good to go down to 51.60 and then 50.90.  Where you place your stop is where you will determine your Risk to Reward (RtR).  As for me, I would put my stop above the 50 EMA.  This gives us a RtR of only 1:1 which is unfortunate.  Based on this, I would probably not take the trade, but if you are a day trader, you may be interested in this one.

DD_JUNE_17_2013

$DIS:  I really like this bracketed trade.  Bullishly, I’d want a close above 65.15.  Bearishly, I’d like a close below 61.98.  Personally, I’d rather see a bullish breakout since it is the path of least resistance.  Notice that volume has been decreasing, which I think will (or should) foreshadow a breakout with solid volume.  Lastly, oscillators are moving bullish, hopefully supporting a bullish breakout.

DIS_JUNE_17_2013

$FSLR:  While I’d be a little careful of a reversal, I think everything is confirming a bearish trend here.  I like a bounce off of 40.90.  Enter this one after the first 15min if price confirms the direction.  Put your stop at least 46.50.

FSLR_JUNE_17_2013

$HAL:  I like an entry on a close above 43.70.  Oscillators are starting to turn upward, but I’d like to see a close over that price level on strong volume to confirm the trend.  Let’s see what happens if/when we get that close.

HAL_JUNE_17_2013

$JCP:  We are approaching a level that I’ve been eyeing for a few weeks now.  If we get a close below 17.11, I am taking this trade bearish down to a target of 15.90.  Oscillators are supporting the move, but I would like to see volume support the move down.  I’m definitely keeping an eye on this one.

JCP_JUNE_17_2013

$UA:  Here is another bracketed trade set-up.  We could be finding support for a bullish reversal, or we may break that support and head low.  Bullishly, I like a close above 60.96 and bearishly I like a close below 58.40.

UA_JUNE_17_2013

Although not posted, keep an eye on the following:

COST: Neutral, but close to choosing a direction.

VALE: Short

AEO:  Short

NKE: breakout from triangle

That about wraps up my picks for tomorrow.  I hope you guys have good luck if you choose to entertain any of these choices.  Just ensure you do your own due diligence before taking any real money trades.  Good night!