24 March Update

The markets pulled back further today after yesterday’s sell-off, but the bull-ish trend is still in tact.  I am still cautiously bullish, but there isn’t much that is catching my eye right now.

Real Account Update

$DD

Dupont seems to have broken the upward channel.  I’m a few cents away from my stop but see another opportunity to enter bullishly at $75.00 if my stop is hit.  That being said, the stock closed on it’s 100 SMA, which may prove as support.  Overall my loss will be minimal if I do get stopped out.  At this time, I have no plans to short

DD

Stocks I’m watching:

$AAPL, $LVS, $TWTR, $FSLR, $VLO.

For $AAPL, I’m still looking for the 129.50 entry.  $LVS looks like it’s rolling over.  I’m looking at a potential short trade.  Both $TWTR and $FSLR broke out today.  I am looking at potential continuation patterns.  $VLO, I am still looking for a break out before getting in long.

That’s all I have for tonight.  Happy Trading!

23 March Update

So the $DOW had a nasty sell-off at the end of the day, but still remains in an uptrend.  Meanwhile, the S&P, which also sold off, is starting to flatten out a bit.  Overall, I’m cautiously bullish.  If the trend of the last few trading sessions plays out, we can expect a white candle tomorrow.

Real Account Update:

Reviewing yesterday’s trades, $DD was up slightly. I was able to get into the trade around the lows of the day.  I bought the stock outright, rather than buying calls.  $DD held the ascending trend line and still looks healthy.

$EXPE sold off with the rest of the market.  I was hesitant to get into the trade, due to the volatile open.  $EXPE sits on solid resistance, so this is an even better bullish entry with less risk and more reward.  I’m not sure I will take the trade, but I’m very interested to see how the stock moves tomorrow.

What I’m looking at:

$JNJ

$JNJ has been in a down trend since the end of last year.  However, a double bottom may be in (see chart below).  If we close above the “neck line”, I like $JNJ long; first target ~$106.50.JNJ

$PFE

PFizer just closed at its all-time high today.  You can see that MACD is about to turn positive and volume was strong on today’s breakout.  The long wick is a little concerning, but this entry provides low risk/high reward.  First target is $36.03.PFE

$VLO

Lastly, Valero is on the cusp of a breakout to all time highs with MACD just starting to turn bullish.  If this one breaks out, I like a medium term target (approximately 1 month) of $68.45.VLO

  On My Radar:

$COH, $MA, $SBUX, $TIF, $WFC, $AAPL

Just a quick note on $AAPL; although it gapped up slightly, the candle was still one of indecision.  I’m still looking for the $129.50 entry.

That’s all for tonight.  Happy trading!

Picks and Observations for Friday June 28, 2013: $AMZN, $BTU, $VLO, $UA

Another day down, another set of trade setups coming up next!

$AMZN:  I think we are currently in no-mans land to take a solid position.  That being said, if we close above 284.80 enter long.  If we fall below 273.21, enter short.  AMZN_JUNE_28_2013

$BTU:  This guy has been on a decline lately and I don’t see that decline letting up any time soon.  We are in some sort of pennant/mini triangle.  A break below 14.30 and I’ll take this trade bearish down to 12.90.BTU_JUNE_28_2013

$VLO:  This stock is just in a strong downward channel.  We had a little bearish flag yesterday and I believe, with confirmation, this could be a great short entry to take after the first 15min and follow it down to 33.23 again.  I’m not super confident with this trade, but I am definitely keeping an eye on it.VLO_JUNE_28_2013

$UA:  Well I got burnt by this stock short and I will be doing all i can to avoid that scenario again.  Here I have UA set up as a bracket trade.  For a short entry, I want a close below 57.59.  For a long entry, I want a close above 60.96.UA_JUNE_28_2013

Goodnight all and good luck.

Market Review June 25, 2013

Today’s action showed a rebound from yesterday’s doji candle.  Despite closing below the 100 SMA yesterday, we closed back above it today despite weak volume.  I believe a close above today’s wick means we will fight against the 50 SMA.  Above that and we could be out of this short term bearish trend.  That being said, we could always be forming some sort of bearish flag/pennant pattern on declining volume that will ultimately take us lower.  Notice that intersecting trend line I drew (yesterday’s candle broke it briefly.  I’m not sure how “real” that line is, but it is interesting for a different perspective.  Personally, I believe tomorrow will be a moderately bullish day but on even lower volume.  But hey, nothing says we can’t trade down to Monday’s lows.

SPY_JUNE_25_2013

REVIEW OF YESTERDAY’s PICKS:

$BIDU:  We did not open down so you would not have taken this trade.  If you did take the trade, you would have needed to recognize the double bottom that formed between 10:30 and 11:00.  Otherwise this trade would not have been profitable… yet.  I still believe BIDU is heading south.

$JNJ:  If you took this trade, you would have made a few pennies on it.  I believe JNJ is a strong stock that is going higher.

$CAT:  We did not open down, so you would not have take this trade.

$VLO:  You would not have been triggered in.

$AEO: You would not have been triggered in.

$AXP: You would not have been triggered in.

$FCX:  We did not open down.  No trade.

$TWC: No break out.  I’m surprised we were down on a bullish market day.  Does not speak well for a breakout.  Volume was moderately strong as well.

$GS:  You would not have been triggered in; we did not open down.

$T:  You would not have been triggered in.

$FSLR:  This would have been a good trade to jump into at the open.

I’ll be honest, I was expecting a bullish day, and the market definitely tricked me.  That being said, it’s important to maintain your stops so you don’t get caught with your proverbial pants down like I just did as you will see below…

REAL ACCOUNT ACTIVITY:

$DECK HOLDING (-15%):  We bounced and I was not expecting it.  Stubbornly I held.  My stop is at 48.75.  I’d like to see a down day tomorrow, but I think I will have to take my medicine and my stop will be hit.  These types of losses are not good for my account.  I need to learn to minimize them better.

$UA HOLDING (-24%):  This is even worse of a play than DECK.  This is just stubborn emotional trading.  I could have minimized my risk and lived to see another day.  Now I am hoping for a down day to recoup some losses.  Not a smart way to trade, and I know it.  My stop is at 58.07.  Again, I can’t afford to be taking these types of losses.  I either need to hedge or cut out sooner.

I’m hoping for a more cheerful day tomorrow.  Stay tuned for my picks for tomorrow.

Stock Picks for June 25, 2013: $BIDU, $JNJ, $CAT, $VLO

Tomorrow is a new day.  Only account gains tomorrow! 🙂

I’ll provide one long play, but the rest of my plays are still short.  Personally, I think tomorrow is going to be a mixed bag for stocks.  That being said, let’s see if the market cooperates:

$BIDU:  This guy looks ripe for the shorting regardless of what the market is doing.  Overall we are in a major downtrend, price just got below all of the MAs, oscillators support and volume, while not huge, supports the bearish move.  This is a 15min entry for me tomorrow.  84.15 is my target:BIDU_JUNE_25_2013

$JNJ:  Here is the bullish trade.  JNJ is a strong stock, not overly affected by this recent downward move.  In addition, it actually had an up day today while mostly everything else was down.  It would be nice to see the market support the move, but we definitely need a close above today’s wick and the 50MA.  For an aggressive play, get in on a close above 85.35 or more conservatively on a close above 86.54.JNJ_JUNE_25_2013

$CAT:  I have been waiting for a close below support for a while on this one and it finally happened today.  I missed getting in, but this ought to be a good 15min rule entry.  We are in a medium term downtrend and I think it can continue to at least a target of 80.10.CAT_JUNE_25_2013

$VLO:  Lastly we have VLO which was good to me on Friday.  I probably should have held onto it, but hindsight is 20/20.  Looking at it now, if we break below 33.20, I don’t see much support until 29.60.  Looking for that close to take advantage of this trade:VLO_JUNE_25_2013

Some other ideas for tomorrow:

$AEO 15min bear.  Target of 17.00

$AXP 15min bear.  Target of 70.45

$FCX 15min bear.  Target of 25.87

$TWC:  Keep watching for a breakout out of this bullish flag.

$GS: 15min bear.  Target of 147.72

$T:  Bearish with a close below 34.70.  Target of 33.63.

$FSLR:  Pure speculation play.  Obama will be talking about renewable energy in a positive light so this may be a good long play.

Goodnight all, and good luck!

Market Overview June 24, 2013

Good afternoon everyone!  Well today was yet another bearish day.  It probably would have been worse had we not gotten a statement from the FED.  As such, that is sure to make the rest of the week very interesting.  Were these the words that will lead to a bullish reversal or was it just one afternoon of light buying to make today’s sell-off not seem as bad.  Volume was still pretty steady today as it has been over the last two sessions with some strong selling in the last 5min.  It will be interesting to see if that selling continues tomorrow or if we start to reverse.  Note that RSI still has some room to move lower as to Stochs and MACD.SPY_JUNE_24_2013

REVIEW OF YESTERDAY’S PICKS:

$AAPL:  Great 15min entry.  At the day’s low you would have been up $6.00.  At the close you would be up about $2.00

$WFC:  No entry

$DIS:  No Entry

$TWC:  No Entry

$DECK:  You would be about even on close and up a few points at the day’s bottom.  Not a great day trade.

$GS:  You would be down unless you sold at today’s lows.  Here is a note; if a stock opens up down and then has a long bearish candle and you are near your target, it is not a good idea to execute a trade.  The 15min rule assumes that you still have a good R/R ratio.

$VMW: You would have gotten triggered in at the end of the day.

$GPS: No trigger

$FSLR:  Looks like it may have found a bottom.  Keep watching!

$IBM:  Same as GS.

$VLO:  This would have been an excellent day trade.  You would have been up almost $1.00 or if you held through close you would still be up $0.50.

REAL ACCOUNT ACTIVITY:

$DECK  OPENED (-5%)  I still like the looks of this trade short (unless the market reverses.  I do not see resistance until 44.80 or so.  However, I did notice after the fact that this stock has been trading with less volume than I would like.  As a result, I am going to tighten my stop a bit above today’s high at 48.65.  I’m hoping this trade will not go against me, but it teaches me a lesson to keep a close eye on the amount of volume.

$UA:  OPENED (-13%)  This trade did not do well for me today.  I was expecting the selloff to continue but the FED came in and the market moved up.  Such is life.  My stop is at 57.40, but if the markets look strong I may tighten even further and lick my wounds.  My target to get out (hopefully on an intraday tag) is 55.05.  I have no good reason for not taking the AAPL trade other than fear and emotion.  My analysis was correct and that is the chart I spent more time on.  I should have stuck with my analysis.

Picks for tomorrow will be up soon.  Thanks for reading!

Picks for June 24, 2013: $AAPL, $WFC, $DIS, $TWC and more!

I’m going to be very quick here.  Sorry for the brief posts tonight:

$AAPL:  15min bearish entry.  First target is 400

AAPL_JUNE_24_2013

 

$WFC:  Bullish entry on close over 41.73  Thanks to Michael Zoitas @Yobronomics (http://yobronomics.com/) for pointing this trade out.

WFC_JUNE_24_2013

 

$DIS Short on a close below 61.78.

DIS_JUNE_24_2013

 

$TWC:  Looks like a bullish flag is forming.  Watch for a breakout:TWC_JUNE_24_2013

Some other potential plays:

$DECK 15min bearish

$GS 15min bearish

$VMW bearish on a close below 66.42

$GPS ascending triangle.  Enter on a close above 42.37

$FSLR watch for a bullish reversal

$IBM 15min bearish potential

$VLO 15min bearish with a target of 34.00

Goodnight, all!  I hope to have a more detailed update tomorrow.

Market Review from June 21, 2013

Hello everyone.  Hope you all are having a great weekend so far.  Mine has been quite busy, but I’m finally ready to get this update posted, so let’s go!

What a wild day on Friday!  From a green open to a faded gap and then back and forth from there.  We ended up closing in the green, but only by 41 points on the DOW.  Volume  was very strong (even stronger than Thursday) as we kissed the 100 SMA on $SPY and just missed touching it on the DOW.  The candle from yesterday was a doji on both indicies which COULD signify a reversal back bullishly.  However, MACD and Stochs are still bearish so I would not just assume that we are heading back up until we get some sort of confirmation.  Ideally I’d like to see a close above 1600 on the S&P which would give me some moderate confirmation of a bullish reversal.  Time will tell, but there should be plenty of good trade setups on Monday and the rest of the week.  See chart below of $SPY:SPX_JUNE_21_2013

REVIEW OF YESTERDAY’S PICKS:

$DE:  You would have gotten triggered in at 82.89 and could have gotten out at 81.75 for over a dollar move.  If you held for the day, you’d have been up 0.42 cents.  Great trade!

$DIS:  Well it is possible that you could have gotten triggered into this trade, but to me it just didn’t feel right.  I would not have taken this trade.  If you did get in, you would have gotten in at 62.30.  You could have gone up about 0.40 cents if you sold at the day’s low, but realizing we were at the low of the day would have been very difficult, unless you were trailing your stop, then you may have broken even.  If you held for the day you would have lost 0.43 cents.  Not a good trade.

$FDX we did not close below the target so no trade would have been triggered.

$UA:  I wanted to get into this trade, but we were down so big so early, I was a little afraid of it so I stayed out.  Had you gotten in, you would have been triggered at 56.85.  Selling at the low of the day would have given you 0.59 cents.  Holding till the end of the day would have put you down 0.03 cents.  Not a great trade.  You could have made some money if you trailed your stop.

$JPM would not have worked out

$AAPL you would have gotten triggered in.  I did not get in, but I am seriously considering it on Monday with 15min confirmation.

$BIDU you would not have gotten triggered

$CSX you would have gotten triggered in at the end of the day.  I wish I had taken this trade, but I was not at the computer at the end of the day.

$FCX: you would not have been triggered into this trade

$HAL: You would not have been triggered into this trade.

$IBM:  This is another trade I would have liked to have legged into.

$O:  You would have gotten triggered in.  Profits on low of the day, still a small profit if still holding at the end of the day.

$VLO:  Great day trade.  I took this one.  I’ll cover it in the next section

$DVY:  You would have gotten triggered in.  Profit if sold at low of the day, would have lost if held until close.

REAL ACCOUNT ACTIVITY:

$JPM  CLOSED (37% LOSS)  OUCH!  This was a really stupid trade from the beginning since I got in on a whim and then I did not manage my loss.  However, this is a perfect trade to learn from, and believe me, I will learn going forward.

$VLO OPENED+CLOSED (+24% ROI)  I was watching this stock in the AM and was able to get in after I saw the stair step forming between 10:00 and 10:10.  I was able to get out after the tweezer bottom formed.  I am very proud of myself for recognizing when to get in and out of this trade.  One of the best trades I’ve done in my short career.  I’m hopeful for more in the coming days and weeks.  I feel like my analysis is getting stronger, but time will tell!

Picks and observations coming up tomorrow.  Goodnight all and GO BRUINS! 🙂

Picks and Predictions for June 21, 2013: $DE, $DIS, $FDX, $UA

BEAR, SHORT.  Those are two words I will be using quite a bit to describe my picks tonight.  Let’s get started, shall we?

DE:  I like this one as a 15 minute entry, short.  ADX is turning up.  We are below all MAs and oscillators support the move.  Volume wasn’t enormous today, but higher than the past few weeks.  83.62 was my original entry point, so if you are already in, great!  Target is 81.60.DE_June_21_2013

DIS:  We close below my entry by one measly penny today!  If you are not in, then after the first 15min, get in (with confirmation).  My stop would be at 63.74 and the first target is the 100 SMA.  The second target is 57.82.  This trade provides a 2:1 R/R ratio.DIS_JUNE_21_2013

$FDX:  This guy had a big down day today.  Unfortunately he’s sitting right above his 200 SMA.  I would like to see a close below 95.10.  My stop would be above the 200 SMA with my first target at 93.18 and the second target at 92.35.FDX_JUNE_21_2013

UA:  I see huge upside with this trade.  15min entry bearish.  Oscillators support and we are below all of the MAs.  Volume could have been better, but I still like the trade.  Target is 54.71.  Stop is at 59.32.  This is a 3:1 R/R ratio trade.UA_JUNE_21_2013

Here are a couple extra stock to look at:

$JPM 15min short

$AAPL short on a close under 416

$BIDU short on a close below 92.00

$CSX short on a close below 23.75

$FCX short on a close below 27.20

$HAL short on a close below 41.30

$IBM short on a close below 196.00

$O 15min short.

$VLO 15min short

$DVY 15min short.

Happy trading, all!