Trader Remorse and Market Recap for Tuesday, July 9

The bulls are here to stay!!  Or are they?  Taking a look at the S&P ($SPX) (posted below), I’m seeing that today we were one penny shy of the high from 6/18.  What happened after that?  Two rather colossal down days.  I’m not predicting that happens, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we had a little down day that tests the bottom trend line and perhaps even the 50 SMA.  One big difference between now and then is that MACD had not crossed whereas now it has crossed and looks strong.  Looking at the $SPY, we broke above that bottom trend line, but I would like to see some stronger volume coming into play.  Lastly, looking at the $DOW, we have not cracked the overhead resistance line that started forming with the wick on 5/21.  I would like to see a break above this line.  Overall, I am bullish on this market…. for now.SPX_JULY_9_2013

REAL ACCOUNT ACTIVITY:

I had no picks from yesterday, so I’m moving straight into the real account activity.  I have to be honest, I am getting incredibly discouraged.  A few more abysmal days and I may begin paper trading until I see some more consistent results.  My account is down 50% from when I first start in early 2012.  Granted I didn’t know what I was doing that, but even with the knowledge and technical experience I have gained, I am still down about 20% since March.  Part of this is due to bad technical analysis (see the $LULU and $POT trades).  Others due to stupid mistakes (see $VZ) trade, but overall I feel like I am psyching myself out because of the losses I have incurred.  I am not taking profits when I should because I am trying to let the stocks run and I am incurring losses that are too large on the losing side.  All this compounds into big down days.  Now, I am playing with options which may also be part of the cause, but I just do not have the money to be buying 100 shares of various stocks and then trying to write covered calls etc.  Again, I think I may move over to paper trading for a little while until I start becoming more successful.  The last thing I want to do is blow up my account.    Anyway, here is the review:

$AAPL:  CLOSED (-11%).  I was up 15% at one point early this morning, but due to being at work I was unable to move my stop down and maintain my profit.  I also had the through of “letting the trade breath” but my stop was hit and the rest was history.  Very disappointed I wasn’t able to take profits when I wanted.

$AAPL:  OPEN/CLOSED (+2%).  I entered in long once AAPL was above $3 on the day.  I made a measly gain that I closed out at around $419.  I was spooked by the earlier trade, but had I waited I would have just about pared my loss.

$LNKD: HOLDING (-2%).  From up 11% to down 2%.  I’m not exactly expecting a rebound tomorrow.  Looking at the past 6 months, a down day is almost always followed by another down day.  I will probably get stopped out.

$AXP:  HOLDING (+24%).  This trade looks good percentage-wise (and it is).  But compared to the AAPL and LULU loss, it is a small gain.  I am moving my stop up to lock-in gains.

$UA:  HOLDING (+3%).  I’m not overly confident with this trade any more.  I’ve moved my stop up to avoid any significant loss.

I truly feel like I am very close to doing well in this thing called trading, but I need to figure out better risk management especially when trading options.  I certainly do not want to give up, but paper trading may be the only way to salvage my account while I find my groove.

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Market Review June 17, 2013

Well as it turns out, even though today was a bullish day, we are still stuck in that darn triangle.  We were close to breaking out, as we snuck above the triangle briefly, but we ended up closing below the line.  Notice that volume is still on the decline.  Note that I did not move any lines.  This triangle so far is being correctly predicted.  I also expect that when we do breakout, it is on relatively strong volume.  Here is a quick chart from today:

SPY_JUNE_17_2013

 

Review of Yesterdays Picks:

To make a long story short, nothing triggered from my predictions yesterday.  This is a good thing because we want confirmation of a trend and not get stuck in whipsaw action.  That leads me to my next section.

Real Life Trades:

FCX:  I am still in this stubborn stock.  My target is still 29.00 and my stop is still 30.35.  I thought once we closed below 30 we would continue to trade down, but unfortunately, we have just sort of meandered sideways.  If this thing hasn’t made a decision by the end of next week, I will make the “executive” decision to close out of my position.

VZ:  Yes, I know, just above I said that none of my picks triggered today.  That is 100% true, and yet I am in VZ and taking a HUGE beating.  Why?  Was it emotion?  Was it a knee-jerk reaction?  Nope!  It was a horribly, stupid, careless accident.  So what exactly happened?  I trade through TDAmeritrade and since I can’t be staring at the market all day, I like to set up trades the night before with conditional orders.  What I normally do is set everything up, (choosing the stock name, the options I’m going to purchse, type of order etc) except for the entry price.  I normally set the entry price to $1.00 on the condition that the order is LOWER than $1.00. Well last night when I was setting it up, I set it to be GREATER than $1.00 and I got triggered in right as the market opened.  Since I did not check my account until the the day (FCX wasn’t doing much so I expected zero activity), I wasn’t able to mitigate my loss.  Now I am sitting with a number of contracts down 25%.  How infuriating and frustrating!!  But now that it’s happened, what do I do?

Well here is what I plan on doing.  Tomorrow on open, if after 15min we are still trending downward, I will buy covering puts.  It looks like we could come back down to 49.50 so that would be my target on the puts.  All the while, I will still hold the calls and only sell them if we break below 49.50 at which point I will buy more puts.  I don’t think there is any easy solution to my problem here, unfortunately.  I never should have nor wanted to get into this trade, yet here I am.  It will be interesting to see if the market will forgive me tomorrow or make me suffer, but I sincerely hope that I can mitigate some of this loss.  Time will tell but I have to take this as a lesson to be much more attentive to my orders.  This is a terrible way to lose money.  Lesson learned!

Picks for June 17, 2013: $VZ, $AAPL, $DD, $DIS, $FSLR, $HAL, $JCP, $UA

Here we are on the eve of a market on the verge of a breakout (we hope) in either direction.  The hope is that a trend forms so that we can choose a direction.  Let’s see what’s in the works for Monday:

$VZ:  This on looks like it’s on the verge or just beginning a bullish move.  I like a 15min entry on Monday as long as the price movement supports the bullish move.  My targets are  52.37 and 53.58.  Stop is at 50.14.  This is about a 3:1 move at the ultimate target.  Oscillators support the move, but volume has been declining.  Hopefully we get some strong volume tomorrow.

VZ_JUNE_17_2013

$AAPL:  This one looks good bearishly on a close below 428.  The first target would be 416.63; ultimately we could get back to $383.00.  I would not take this bearish trade unless we close strongly below 428 with supporting volume.  Fortunately, oscillators are supporting the bearish move.  Let’s see what Monday brings:

AAPL_JUNE_17_2013

$DD:  This one is a good candidate for a 15min short.  We close well below my entry point of 53.38 on strong volume.  Oscillators are supporting the bearish move.  I think we are good to go down to 51.60 and then 50.90.  Where you place your stop is where you will determine your Risk to Reward (RtR).  As for me, I would put my stop above the 50 EMA.  This gives us a RtR of only 1:1 which is unfortunate.  Based on this, I would probably not take the trade, but if you are a day trader, you may be interested in this one.

DD_JUNE_17_2013

$DIS:  I really like this bracketed trade.  Bullishly, I’d want a close above 65.15.  Bearishly, I’d like a close below 61.98.  Personally, I’d rather see a bullish breakout since it is the path of least resistance.  Notice that volume has been decreasing, which I think will (or should) foreshadow a breakout with solid volume.  Lastly, oscillators are moving bullish, hopefully supporting a bullish breakout.

DIS_JUNE_17_2013

$FSLR:  While I’d be a little careful of a reversal, I think everything is confirming a bearish trend here.  I like a bounce off of 40.90.  Enter this one after the first 15min if price confirms the direction.  Put your stop at least 46.50.

FSLR_JUNE_17_2013

$HAL:  I like an entry on a close above 43.70.  Oscillators are starting to turn upward, but I’d like to see a close over that price level on strong volume to confirm the trend.  Let’s see what happens if/when we get that close.

HAL_JUNE_17_2013

$JCP:  We are approaching a level that I’ve been eyeing for a few weeks now.  If we get a close below 17.11, I am taking this trade bearish down to a target of 15.90.  Oscillators are supporting the move, but I would like to see volume support the move down.  I’m definitely keeping an eye on this one.

JCP_JUNE_17_2013

$UA:  Here is another bracketed trade set-up.  We could be finding support for a bullish reversal, or we may break that support and head low.  Bullishly, I like a close above 60.96 and bearishly I like a close below 58.40.

UA_JUNE_17_2013

Although not posted, keep an eye on the following:

COST: Neutral, but close to choosing a direction.

VALE: Short

AEO:  Short

NKE: breakout from triangle

That about wraps up my picks for tomorrow.  I hope you guys have good luck if you choose to entertain any of these choices.  Just ensure you do your own due diligence before taking any real money trades.  Good night!

Market Overview and Results from June 7, 2013

Good evening all.  Let’s not waste any time, and jump right into the thick of things.

On Friday we saw a strong bounce in the market off of the 50 day MA.  After the strong hammer candle on Thursday, I was expecting to continue the bounce, which we did.  With this bounce, we closed over all of the MA’s as well as a resistance line and the short term downward trend line.  As far as I am concerned, we are headed north for the week to come!  The chart below is of SPY, but DIA is very similar and on the same idea.

Now, while I am 99% a technical trader, I do pay attention to stocks earnings reports as well as more of the important general reports that have the potential to impact the market.  This week, there are two to keep an eye on which will both be reported at 8:30AM on Thursday:  Retail Sales and Jobless Claims.

As for this week, I completely expect the market to be bullish.  I haven’t examined potential trades as of yet, but I would expect anything I plan to get into will be bullish position.  With oscillators resetting and starting to turn up, I think it is wise to embrace the bullish trend, keeping in mind stops and taking profits at targets.

SPY_JUNE_10_2013

As for my personal account, I got stopped out of CAT and BBBY.  BBBY closed for a 22% loss and CAT was stopped out for an 18% loss.   I only had 1 contract in each of these, so although the percentages are large, my actual loss was small.

In addition to these losses, I entered in HD long with 2 August contracts.  I am currently sitting at an ROI (return on investment) of 16%.  This basically erased my losses from CAT and BBBY.  As for the other picks I had made on Thursday night, VZ never reached my target, COST was not moving strongly and AAPL reached my first target too quickly and so wisely, I did not get in as AAPL finished the day in the green.  

 

VZ, HD, AAPL, COST: Picks for June 7, 2013.

VZ (LONG)  looks ripe for a bullish move.  We had a strong white candle today that came to rest on the short term trend line.  I expect a break of that line tomorrow or Monday and I plan on entering on a close above $51.00  My target is 53.60.  Indicators are already turning.  I think this is a great trade.

VZ_JUNE_6_2013

HD (LONG) is another stock looking like it will move bullishly.  Except, this one I won’t wait for a close.  Assuming we get an intra close above the first 15min candle, I will take the trade bullishly.  Now, granted MACD and Stochs need to turn up to support the move, but the volume on that white candle was very strong.  The only small road block is the 10 EMA, but it doesn’t worry me all that much.  First target is 80.21.

HD_JUNE_6_2013

AAPL AAPL AAPL.  (SHORT)  It had it’s chance to break out on an inverse head and shoulders, but failed.  In addition to failing that breakout, it has also sliced through a short term trend line.  I see this one bearish with a first target of 431.00, second target of 416.39 and an ultimate target of 385.42.  Indicators are starting to turn over and a new downtrend is starting.  I like this one bearish with an intra day close below the first 15min candle.

AAPL_JUNE_7_2013

COST (LONG) is looking like a solid trade.  I would feel better if MACD and Stochs supported the trend which is why I would like a close (or strong volume) above the wick from 6/5 before getting in.   I like an entry of 111.87.  I think this one is ultimately bullish.

COST_JUNE_7_2013

That about wraps it up today.  Happy trading and good luck!