1/26/18 Market Update

Current Positions:

$DIS: 25 shares.  Current Status: +0.56%. Plan: Sell at Target 1: $113.16.    Earnings: 6 Feb

$DNKN:  3 March 67.5 Calls.  Current Status:  +12.3%.  Plan:  Target 1:  70.82

$IWM:  2 March $157 calls.  Current Status: One call @ +25%  Target: $162.09

 

$C:  2 March $77.5 calls.  Current status:  CLOSED +18.8% Target 1: $79.64  Target 2: $81.97  Earnings: April

$MCD:  2 February $175 calls.  Current Status: CLOSED -3.2%

$WMT: 2 March $100 calls.  Current Status: 2nd contract +97.4%. CLOSED

NEW:

$AXP:  2 March $100 calls.  Current Status: -3.9%   Target 1:  $102.37  Target 2: $104.94 Target 3: 108.26

 

In addition to the above, I also cover: $SPY, $QQQ, $CAT $DE $EBAY $FCX $TSLA

Video here:

1/23/18 Market Update

Current Positions:

$AAPL: 2 February $180 calls.  Current Status: -17.9%.  Target 1:  182.13   Target 2: 189.59  Earnings:  1 February

$DIS: 25 shares.  Current Status: +0.55%. Plan: Sell at Target 1: $113.16.    Earnings: 6 Feb

$WMT: 2 March $100 calls.  Current Status: 2nd contract +81.58% Plan:  Sell at Target 2: 108.69  Earnings:  15 Feb

$WYNN: 1 February $175 calls  Current Status: +138.5%  CLOSED

New:

$C:  2 March $77.5 calls.  Current status:  +6.7% Target 1: $79.64  Target 2: $81.97  Earnings: April

$EBAY: 2 February $38 calls.  Current status: +19.3%  Target: $40.12
Earnings:  31 January

$IWM:  2 March $157 calls.  Current Status: +27.2%  Target: $162.09

$MCD:  2 February $175 calls.  Current Status: -0.74%  Target 1:  $179.06  Target 2:  $183.31 Earnings:  30 January

 

In addition to the above, I also cover: $SPY, $QQQ, $FCX, $FB $KORS, $KO $LULU, $TSLA

Videos here (parts 1 and 2)

1/22/18 Market Update

Current Positions:

$AAPL: 2 February $180 calls.  Current Status: +2.38%.  Target 1:  182.13   Target 2: 189.59  Earnings:  1 February

$DIS: 25 shares.  Current Status: +0.55%. Plan: Sell at Target 1: $113.16.    Earnings: 6 Feb

$WMT: 2 March $100 calls.  Current Status: 2nd contract +66.5% Plan:  Sell at Target 2: 108.69  Earnings:  15 Feb

$WYNN: 1 February $175 calls  Current Status: +57.26%  Plan:  Target 1: 178.35  Target 2: 188.58.  Earnings:  1 Feb

New:

$C:  2 March $77.5 calls.  Current status:  +1.72% Target 1: $79.64  Target 2: $81.97  Earnings: April

$EBAY: 2 February $38 calls.  Current status: -19.6%  Target: $40.12
Earnings:  31 January

$IWM:  2 March $157 calls.  Current Status: +14.7%  Target: $162.09

$MCD:  2 February $175 calls.  Current Status: 0%  Target 1:  $179.06  Target 2:  $183.31 Earnings:  30 January

 

In addition to the above, I also cover: $SPY, $QQQ, $FCX, $KORS, $LULU, $TSLA

Video here

1/19/18 – Market Update

Current Positions:

$AAPL: 2 February $180 calls.  Current Status: +18.5%.  Target 1:  182.13   Target 2: 189.59  Earnings:  1 February

$DIS: 25 shares.  Current Status: +0.4%. Plan: Sell at Target 1: $113.16.    Earnings: 6 Feb

$WMT: 2 March $100 calls.  Current Status: 2nd contract +64% Plan:  Sell at Target 2: 108.69  Earnings:  15 Feb

$WYNN: 1 February $175 calls  Current Status: +17%  Plan:  Target 1: 178.35  Target 2: 188.58.  Earnings:  1 Feb

 

In addition to the above, I also cover: $SPY, $QQQ, $C, $DNKN, $EBAY, $IP, $IWM, $MCD, $MMM, $TSLA

Video here: https://youtu.be/c80SVbCb8Aw

1/18/18 Market Update

Current Positions:

$AAPL: 2 February $180 calls.  Current Status: +19%.  Target 1:  182.13   Target 2: 189.59  Earnings:  1 February

$DIS: 25 shares.  Current Status: +1.8%. Plan: Sell at Target 1: $113.16.    Earnings: 6 Feb

$HD: 2 February $195 calls.  Current Status:  Second contract status:  +49% CLOSED Plan:  Target 2: $202.27.    Earnings:  13 Feb

$JNJ: 2 February $145 calls.  Current Status:  +26% CLOSED Earnings: 23 January.

$WMT: 2 March $100 calls.  Current Status: 30%; 1 contract sold for 30% Plan:  Sell at Target 2: 108.69  Earnings:  15 Feb

 

See today’s video for details:

1/17/18 Stock Picks

Current Positions:

$AAPL: 2 February $180 calls.  Current Status:  -17%.  Plan:  I entered Apple via the 5minute rule, but it did not hold its gains.  It closed right around the breakout level, so I’m looking for a bounce tomorrow.    Earnings:  1 February

$DIS: 25 shares.  Current Status: 0.82%. Plan: Sell at Target 1: $113.16.     Well, I put in a limit order for 113.10, but not in time for it to execute.  It was my own fault for not putting in the order prior to market open.  Now I’ll wait to see if it bounces off of the ascending triangle. Earnings: 6 Feb

$HD: 2 February $195 calls.  Current Status:  Second contract status:  +26%.  Plan: Another ugly candle today, but still not breaking any trends. Target 2: $202.27.    Earnings:  13 Feb

$JNJ: 2 February $145 calls.  Current Status:  +23%.  Plan:  Trim 1 call at Target 1: 148.63.  Ensure position is closed prior to earnings.  The gains didn’t quite hold, but better than a lot of other stocks today.  Still looking solid.  Earnings: 23 January.

$WMT: 2 March $100 calls.  Current Status: 0%. Plan: My plan remains to trim 1 call at Target 1: $103.85.  Quite a bit of action on WMT today.  Bullish trend is still in tact. Earnings:  15 Feb

 

Please see my YouTube video for actual analysis here:

 

Picks for Tuesday, July 16: $CAT, $LULU, $FLSR

So today I am just going to take a look at 3 potential plays.  1 brackett, 1 long and 1 15min rule.  So let’s begin!

$CAT:  First off, let me thank #Tradesmartu.com for pointing out this trade.  It looks like we could go in either direction with this stock.  On the bullish side, we need a close above today’s wick as well as a close above the 200 SMA.  Target is 90.60.  Stop is TBD.  On the short side, I like a close below 84.85 and a target of 81.48.  Stop is TBD.

$LULU:  I got burned on this stock a few weeks ago, but it’s looking like a good play is setting up.  There are some long term trend lines, the 200 SMA and recent wicks I’d like to close above.  In addition, there is an ascending triangle forming which I outlined in pink.  I like a close above 66.85 with a target of 70.40.  Stop is TBD.    Notice there is a short trade as well.  That was from a few weeks ago, but it may be valid depending on how LULU behaves.  For now, I am looking at the bullish trade.

$FSLR:  Here is the 15min trade.  It looks like we just had a nice pop on increasing volume. I think FLSR is a strong play with a target of 56.30.  My stop is 48.56.  This trade has an excellent R/R if it plays out as expected.  I think I will leg into this trade with one contract and get a couple more if the trend continues.  

That about does it.  Best of luck with all your trades.

Picks for Thursday July 11, 2013: $DDD, $DIS, $GS, $HES

Here are my picks for tomorrow.  Just a quick note that futures are up quite a bit after hours.  Let’s see if that holds into tomorrow.

$DDD:  I like a long entry on a close above 48.75.  Targets are 50.98 and 51.87.  Stop is TBD.  MACD and Stochs are supporting a bullish move.

$DIS:  Here is a bracket trade; similar to the one posted a few days ago.  I like a long entry of 65.60 with a target of 67.88.  A shot entry of 63.75 with a target of 62.00.  Stop TBD.

$GS:  I like a long entry on a close above 157.60.  Targets are 160.80 and 165.65.  Stop TBD.

$HES:  I like a long entry on a close above 69.05 with a target of 72.40.  My stop is TBD.

Keep an eye on some stock picks from yesterday:

$DMND

$COST

$CELG

There you are.  Good luck to everyone.

Picks for Wednesday July 10, 2013: $BTU, $COST, $DECK, $QCOM, $CELG, $XONE, $DMND

I have a quite a list for you all to make up for lost time and because a lot of these look ripe for the taking!  Let’s get started:

$BTU:  I like a close above 16.21 with a target of 18.00.  Oscillators are starting to turn around and I think a break above the 16.21 line will set this stock on a bullish uptrend.  Stop TBD.

$COST:  If you had been watching this, you would have gotten triggered in today.  Sadly, I was not watching.  I think this guy is going higher.  15min bullish entry with a target of 115.39.  Stop is 112.00

$DECK:  This stock has been strong ever since I thought to buy puts a few weeks ago.  We just broke out of a long term and short term downward trend line.  I like this stock long with a 15min entry.  Targets are 55.42, 57.19 and 59.97.  Stop is 53.00

$QCOM:  We are in a clear downward channel.  I like an entry on a close below 58.86 or if you want to be aggressive, take a 15min short entry.  Target 1 is 57.36.  T2 is 56.56.  Stop is 60.40.  Careful on this one with the R/R ratio.

$CELG:  I like this one long.  It looks strong and broke out of a short term downward trend line a few days ago.  This is a 15min entry with targets of 127.60 and 130.  The R/R ratio isn’t the best so watch out for this one as well.  

$XONE:  Pure speculation but this thing is so overly extended I can’t see how it wouldn’t have a pullback.  The only question is when.  Keep a close eye because it has a ways to fall.

$DMND:  This one just broke out from some long term resistance.  I like this one long on a 15min entry with a target of 24.19 followed by 26.38. Stop is 20.95

Best of luck with all of your trades and positions!

Trader Remorse and Market Recap for Tuesday, July 9

The bulls are here to stay!!  Or are they?  Taking a look at the S&P ($SPX) (posted below), I’m seeing that today we were one penny shy of the high from 6/18.  What happened after that?  Two rather colossal down days.  I’m not predicting that happens, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we had a little down day that tests the bottom trend line and perhaps even the 50 SMA.  One big difference between now and then is that MACD had not crossed whereas now it has crossed and looks strong.  Looking at the $SPY, we broke above that bottom trend line, but I would like to see some stronger volume coming into play.  Lastly, looking at the $DOW, we have not cracked the overhead resistance line that started forming with the wick on 5/21.  I would like to see a break above this line.  Overall, I am bullish on this market…. for now.

REAL ACCOUNT ACTIVITY:

I had no picks from yesterday, so I’m moving straight into the real account activity.  I have to be honest, I am getting incredibly discouraged.  A few more abysmal days and I may begin paper trading until I see some more consistent results.  My account is down 50% from when I first start in early 2012.  Granted I didn’t know what I was doing that, but even with the knowledge and technical experience I have gained, I am still down about 20% since March.  Part of this is due to bad technical analysis (see the $LULU and $POT trades).  Others due to stupid mistakes (see $VZ) trade, but overall I feel like I am psyching myself out because of the losses I have incurred.  I am not taking profits when I should because I am trying to let the stocks run and I am incurring losses that are too large on the losing side.  All this compounds into big down days.  Now, I am playing with options which may also be part of the cause, but I just do not have the money to be buying 100 shares of various stocks and then trying to write covered calls etc.  Again, I think I may move over to paper trading for a little while until I start becoming more successful.  The last thing I want to do is blow up my account.    Anyway, here is the review:

$AAPL:  CLOSED (-11%).  I was up 15% at one point early this morning, but due to being at work I was unable to move my stop down and maintain my profit.  I also had the through of “letting the trade breath” but my stop was hit and the rest was history.  Very disappointed I wasn’t able to take profits when I wanted.

$AAPL:  OPEN/CLOSED (+2%).  I entered in long once AAPL was above $3 on the day.  I made a measly gain that I closed out at around $419.  I was spooked by the earlier trade, but had I waited I would have just about pared my loss.

$LNKD: HOLDING (-2%).  From up 11% to down 2%.  I’m not exactly expecting a rebound tomorrow.  Looking at the past 6 months, a down day is almost always followed by another down day.  I will probably get stopped out.

$AXP:  HOLDING (+24%).  This trade looks good percentage-wise (and it is).  But compared to the AAPL and LULU loss, it is a small gain.  I am moving my stop up to lock-in gains.

$UA:  HOLDING (+3%).  I’m not overly confident with this trade any more.  I’ve moved my stop up to avoid any significant loss.

I truly feel like I am very close to doing well in this thing called trading, but I need to figure out better risk management especially when trading options.  I certainly do not want to give up, but paper trading may be the only way to salvage my account while I find my groove.